On Tuesday, around 2am local time in Iran, the Israeli military issued an order for residents of Tehran's District 18, one of the capital’s most densely populated and poorest neighbourhoods, to leave.
“In the coming hours, the Israeli army will operate in this area against military targets belonging to the Iranian regime,” army spokesman Avichay Adraee said on X. “Your presence in this area exposes your lives to danger.”
Hundreds of thousands of people live in this sprawling area of Tehran. It was the middle of the night, and Iranian authorities have restricted internet access since Israel launched its attacks on Friday. The X platform is officially banned in Iran, and not accessible without a VPN.
Around 30 minutes later, the Israeli army said they were carrying out a series of strikes on Tehran.
Civilians have borne the brunt of the aerial war that began on Friday when Israel started bombing Iran. Israel described it as an operation to prevent its archenemy from acquiring nuclear weapons. Since then, the two countries have engaged in their most intense exchange of attacks.
In Iran, the Health Ministry said at least 224 people were killed and 1,277 admitted to hospital as a result of Israel's bombardment, and 90 per cent of the casualties were civilians. Iranian strikes on Israel have killed at least 24 civilians, according to Israeli authorities.
Human rights groups and Iranian activists have denounced Israeli bombing warnings as unlawful, ineffective and terror-inducing for the civilian population.
In a press release on Wednesday calling for the protection of civilians amid the rising hostilities, Amnesty International criticised the “alarming threats and overly broad, ineffective evacuation warnings” issued by Israel.
“Evacuation warnings, even if detailed and effective, do not release Israel from its other obligations under international humanitarian law,” the rights group said. "They must not treat as open-fire zones areas for which they have issued warnings."
US President Donald Trump, who is reportedly considering military intervention to support Israel, Washington’s long-time ally, added to the alarm on Monday when he said, “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!” in a post on his Truth Social platform.
“Making an entire city panic over a warning that is not even accurate – when people have nowhere to go and no logistical means to evacuate is a violation of international law,” said Bahar Ghandehari, from the Centre for Human Rights in Iran, a US-based organisation.
“Tehran has a population of nearly 10 million. Where would they even go?” she added.
The Israeli bombing threat has also raised concern for political prisoners. On Monday, Israel warned residents of Tehran's District 3 to leave. Evin Prison, which holds scores of political activists, including many arrested during the 2022-23 Women, Life, Freedom protests, stands on the edge of the district.
“It is dangerously close to whatever Israel is planning to do there,” Ms Ghandehari said.
The centre has been monitoring prison conditions closely, she said. “So far, we haven't heard anything alarming happening inside the prisons. But prisoners are very panicked and stressed.”
The prisoners' families also feel helpless.
“My dad is in prison, how is he supposed to evacuate?” said Mehraveh Khadan, daughter of Iranian rights activist Reza Khadan who is being held in Evin.
Unlike Israel, Tehran has no public bomb shelters or air raid warning system, and its air defences are limited.
“There are no alarms, no shelters, and all the information is coming from social media, which many people can’t even access due to internet restrictions,” said Ms Ghandehari.
Iranian authorities have said that metro stations, schools and mosques would be used as shelters, but it is not clear whether these structures above ground can offer meaningful protection.
Familiar tactics
The Israel military's warnings to civilians, with maps shaded in red to show the areas under threat, are the same as those used in its wars in Gaza and Lebanon.
In Lebanon and Gaza, human rights groups have already denounced these maps as inadequate and misleading, saying they do not provide safe or effective evacuation options for civilians.
Israel first used disproportionate force against civilians as a military strategy during the 2006 war in Lebanon. This became known as the Dahieh doctrine, named after the southern suburbs of Lebanon's capital.
The doctrine legitimises the use of maximum force against civilians and civilian infrastructure, erasing the line between military and civilian targets in a violation of international humanitarian law, as means of collective punishment to pressure the local population to distance itself from the enemy force.
“They’re targeting entire residential areas, putting civilians at risk and making them collateral damage for a single military target,” Ms Ghandehari said.
Amnesty noted a recent warning issued by the Israeli army told people across Iran to “immediately leave areas … [housing] military weapons manufacturing facilities and their support institutions”, spreading panic within the population.
“The locations of military facilities are not known to the general public and no clear guidance was provided on where civilians should or should not go to ensure their safety,” the rights group said.
While the tactics may be similar to those used in Lebanon and Gaza, the scale is different in Iran – a much larger country with a population of more than 85 million.
The panic sparked by Israel's warnings and bombings in Tehran led to massive traffic jams across the city as people tried to leave.
“People were stuck in traffic for hours, and some even ended up turning back and going home,” Ms Ghandehari said. “Others couldn’t leave at all because of fuel shortages.”
The current momentum seems to favour escalation. Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Wednesday said his country would not surrender and warned that any US military intervention would have serious consequences.
“That's the most terrifying thing: the uncertainty,” Ms Ghandehari said.
