Sight of Iranian missiles streaking across night sky reminds Egypt of perils ahead

Government's worst fear is that war will compound Egypt's economic woes and spark public unrest

The Iron Dome, the Israeli air defence system, intercepts missiles fired from Iran over Tel Aviv. EPA

Iranian missiles can be seen with the naked eye in Egypt as they streak across the night sky like shooting stars while travelling towards Israel.

Unleashed hundreds of kilometres away in Iran and flying at high altitude, the missiles do not look particularly menacing. Yet for Egypt they serve as a potent reminder of the potential perils ahead as the Iran-Israel war rages on amid suggestions of US involvement on Israel's side.

Egypt is deeply alarmed by the conflict, knowing it is only a matter of time before the fallout hits its fragile economy so hard that it might need a global aid package similar to last year’s $50 billion bailout merely to stay afloat.

Perhaps more disconcerting for President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s government is that a deeper economic crisis could trigger unrest in the nation of 106 million, which has struggled in the past decade with double-digit inflation, additional taxes and a rapidly devaluing currency.

The war, which began on June 13, has already caused Egypt’s currency to lose ground to the US dollar. The stock market also took a beating, while on the nation’s lucrative debt market “hot money” was leaving in a hurry, putting pressure on limited foreign currency reserves.

Underscoring the depth of the alarm, some Egyptians, mostly those with deep pockets, are hoarding food and basic medicine because they fear a possible disruption of global supply chains if the conflict becomes broader.

But not all are on board with this coping tactic, or can afford it, in a country where the majority are leading a hand-to-mouth existence, or surviving from pay cheque to pay cheque at best.

A bakery in the old quarter of Cairo takes a delivery of fresh bread. Egypt's leaders are concerned about the effect on the economy from the Iran-Israel war. AFP

“I haven’t stocked up on anything, this is nonsense,” said Ibtisam Ahmed, a 73-year-old retiree and mother of three from Cairo. "If there are shortages, then we will all suffer together as one people. What I and many others fear is not the shortage of food. We fear power cuts that will leave us living in darkness and we fear lack of security on the streets.”

Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly has advised Egyptians to curb electricity consumption. Seeking to head off a popular backlash at a critical time, his government is rushing to find alternative imports of fuel supplies to avoid power cuts in the summer and has been issuing reassuring messages on the nation’s reserves of essential food items.

On Wednesday, he said Egypt had enough stocks of "strategic" food items for six months and was on course to secure its needs of natural gas, on which many of its power stations rely, by the end of the month.

"The entry and exit of hot money is nothing to worry about," Mr Madbouly said, referring to the flight of funds from the debt market.

Addressing parliament on Tuesday, Planning Minister Rania Al Mashat made clear the government was not taking any chances. Officials, she explained, were closely monitoring the situation in the region and were prepared to revise the indicators of Egypt's 2025-2026 budget that will come into effect on July 1.

“It could prove necessary that we revise indicators in case current regional developments persist or worsen,” she told legislators, referring to the Israel-Iran war. Mr Madbouly, she added, has set up a “crisis committee” to monitor the fallout from the war.

Michael Hanna, director of the US Programme at the International Crisis Group in New York, said: “Egypt is very vulnerable and there is a lot at stake now. It does not have much of a role that impacts on what’s happening and had never been a player in years of animosity between Israel and Iran, but it stands to lose a lot from this conflict.

"This war could go on for long if Iran does not run out of missiles."

A currency exchange in downtown Cairo. Already the Iran-Israel war has caused Egypt’s currency to lose ground on the US dollar. AFP

The potentially damaging fallout from the fighting comes as Egypt is struggling to shield itself from the ripples of its crisis-ridden neighbours: Sudan’s civil war, Libya’s 14 years of civil strife and the 20-month-old Israeli war in Gaza.

The challenges have prompted pro-government talk show hosts and loyal social media accounts to send out messages of support to Mr El Sisi, urging Egyptians to rally behind his leadership and place their trust in the military's ability to defend the nation.

Their seemingly state-orchestrated narrative is clearly on Iran's side, a reflection of Cairo's tense relations with Israel and, in contrast, its rapidly improving ties with Iran.

But the government's handling of the potential fallout from the war has not been met with universal approval in Egypt.

In thinly veiled criticism, one of Egypt's most-celebrated politicians, former foreign minister and Arab League chief Amr Moussa, suggested the rarely convened National Security Council led by Mr El Sisi must meet to shoulder its responsibility of "dealing with the threats facing the nation's security and take the necessary steps to contain them".

Cairo's jitters have been on display in the past week, when authorities appeared to go to great lengths to prevent foreign pro-Palestinian activists and their local peers from staging a symbolic march to the Gaza border in support of beleaguered Palestinians.

The government said the activists would need permission to demonstrate, a process that has never been fruitful since Egypt effectively banned street protests in 2013.

Scores of activists were detained and deported on arrival at Cairo airport. Many who slipped through security at the airport were detained and deported after police raids at Cairo hotels and an area outside the Suez Canal city of Ismailia, where scores had gathered.

Security sources said the crackdown was designed chiefly to stop Egypt's pro-Palestinian activists from joining the march and turning it into an anti-government rally.