The war between Iran and Israel has intensified into an aerial conflict, prompting concerns in Levant countries about its effects on internal stability and their strategic positions.
Iraq has condemned the Israeli strikes on Friday that ignited the war. Despite their sharp political differences with Iran, both Jordan and Egypt have also accused Israel of violating international law and threatening regional security.
Only Syria has remained silent. A dramatic regime change in Damascus last year has ushered in the political ascendancy of Syria’s majority Sunnis and undermined Iran’s cross-border military reach.
Here is how the conflict is viewed in each of the region’s capitals:
Damascus
A source close to the country’s new rulers said that the Israeli attacks on Iran, the main regional backer of the former Assad regime, are seen as “positive” because they undermine Iran’s ability to destabilise Syria as it emerges from decades of hostility towards Washington.
Strengthening Damascus as a bulwark against Iran and possibly drawing the country into the Abraham Accords were the main reasons behind US normalisation with Damascus last month, according to American officials.
President Ahmad Al Shara does not want Iranian proxies, who had free rein in Syria until the removal of the regime in December, to penetrate the country again and launch attacks on Israel, the source said.
A week before the Israel-Iran war, a small group in southern Syria that once formed part of Iran’s regional network, was suspected of carrying out a rocket attack on an Israeli-occupied area in the Golan Heights, drawing Israeli retaliation against Syrian military targets.
“For Al Shara, Israel is targeting its most dangerous enemy. Issues with Israel can always be negotiated. But for him, Iran is personal,” the source said.
Amman
Jordan has trodden carefully whenever conflicts involving Israel have erupted since the two countries signed a peace treaty in 1994. The kingdom also has a defence pact with the United States that governs the presence of 3,800 American soldiers in the country.
Its population, however, contains a large proportion of people of Palestinian origin, and anti-Israeli sentiment pervades the public discourse. Officials have shied away from public criticism of Iran despite viewing Tehran and its proxies as a threat to the stability of the system.
In his first public comments on the conflict, Jordan’s King Abdullah said on Sunday that the country will not be a theatre of war and will not allow anyone to interfere with its internal stability, in an apparent warning to groups that might try to attack the country or US interests.
Iranian missiles hit Haifa in latest wave of attacks
Amid the Gaza war in January last year, a drone attack in north-eastern Jordan by a Shiite militia in Iraq supported by Tehran killed three US soldiers. The attack was seen as part of the Iranian response to the Israeli invasion of Gaza, but also retaliation for the assassination of Iranian military officials in Syria.
As soon as Iran started retaliating against Israel on Friday, Jordan announced that its air force had intercepted missiles and drones entering its airspace. A military official later said the projectiles were heading from east to west, in a clear indication that they were Iranian.
Baghdad
Iraq, which is among the world’s biggest oil exporters but imports virtually everything else, is one of the nations most vulnerable to the fallout from the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. This is largely because of the government’s weak influence on myriad Iran-backed groups in the country.
On the security front, Iraq faces the risk of becoming a battleground for proxy warfare. There are fears that it could be pulled deeper into this confrontation if the Tehran-allied militias choose to join.
On Friday, the powerful militias said they would enter the conflict only if US forces based in Iraq intervened to support Israel. However, one group declared on Monday that it will join the fight, vowing to attack Israel and “anyone who supports it” in Iraq and the region.
A reassertion of military sway over foreign policy also threatens Iraq’s delicate balancing act between maintaining relations with both Iran and the West, particularly the US, and undermines its efforts to assert sovereignty and pursue an independent foreign policy.
Economically, the war could affect a process of recovery dating back to the low oil prices of five years ago. If the conflict expands and Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, financial returns from Baghdad’s oil sales could again plummet, plunging the country into another crisis.
Past pressures on Tehran have also weakened the Iraqi dinar, which is trading at around 1,300 to the US dollar. Whenever Tehran has become more isolated, Iranians have bought what is known as the “cheap dollar” from Iraq, causing foreign currency scarcity in Iraq and undermining the dinar.
Beirut
Unlike Iraq, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, once Iran's go-to militia in Tehran’s so-called asymmetrical warfare against its foes, has indicated no desire to enter the fray, although it has kept up anti-Israeli rhetoric. Its military might has taken a blow after the 14-month war with Israel, causing it to lose its footing. Since its military defeat, western and Lebanese leaders have been working towards disarming the once-powerful group.
Israel understands only the language of “killing, fire, and destruction”, Hezbollah said in a statement following Israel’s initial assault on Iran. However, Riad Kahwaji, head of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, said the group is constrained and in no position currently to support Iran.
“Hezbollah has taken a very strong beating. Its capability has diminished considerably,” Mr Kahwaji said.
Meanwhile, Lebanese officials have fielded US and European warnings against allowing Lebanese territory to be used to support Iran. Hezbollah has been receptive to the pressure, with one of its officials telling Reuters last week that it would “not initiate its own attack on Israel in retaliation for Israel’s strikes”.
Still, an Israeli drone buzzed over Beirut at low altitude on Monday, its incessant noise overlaying the urban sounds of the capital. The message was clear: although Israel is busy fighting a high-stakes war with Iran, it can still cause significant destruction in the already devastated Lebanon.
Cairo
Egypt, home to the Suez Canal, is mainly worried about any spillover that could disrupt global shipping, as well as imports of commodities and energy.
The government, as indicated by emergency meetings it has convened, fears that Iran could retaliate against Israel by closing vital maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz or Bab Al Mandeb, which could disrupt access to the Suez Canal.
Egypt is import-dependent and has limited sources for foreign currency, so it is particularly vulnerable to disruptions in food, fuel and other essential goods. On Sunday, the Federation of Chambers of Commerce issued a statement reassuring citizens that Egypt had strategic reserves to cover its needs for six to 12 months.
Markets tumble amid escalating Iran-Israel conflict
Moreover, Egypt’s energy security is under threat after Israel suspended natural gas exports to it due to the deteriorating security situation. With high summer temperatures driving higher energy demand, this could lead to power shortages and rolling blackouts, a politically sensitive problem that sparked a public backlash as recently as 2023.
Militarily, Egypt has put its armed forces on heightened alert, conducting nationwide air defence drills to ensure readiness. The Sinai Peninsula, which borders Israel, is on maximum alert, reflecting Cairo’s fear of further spillover from the conflict.
Incidents of stray projectiles landing on Egyptian territory, as seen with the Iranian-backed Houthis’ misfired rockets, have further underscored Egypt’s vulnerability.
