US embassy evacuations signal threat of strike on Iran, experts say

Move seen as preparation for regional escalation as new round of nuclear talks approaches

The US staff evacuations from its embassies in the Middle East on Thursday signals the threat of either an Israeli or American attack on Iran, experts told The National, as tension heightens across the region.

US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that US personnel were being moved from the potentially “dangerous” Middle East as nuclear talks with Iran faltered and fears grew of a regional conflict.

“The evacuation leaks signal that the threat of Israeli strikes on Iran looms closer on the horizon,” Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East programme at London’s Chatham House, told The National.

Tehran had earlier threatened to target US military bases in the region if conflict breaks out and if it were attacked over its nuclear programme, amid mounting speculation that Israel could strike the country's facilities.

The orders to US embassy staff in Iraq was “based on our latest analysis”, according to the US State Department. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth authorised family members of US military stationed across the region to leave, according to a Pentagon statement.

The move could be related to possible US or Israeli strikes on acts of resistance targets, and it's of a significantly large enough threat and a large enough scale that they expect retaliation

Farzan Sabet,
managing researcher at the Geneva Graduate Institute

The State Department also said US government employees and family members in Israel are restricted from travelling outside major cities such as Tel Aviv until further notice.

The move could be “related to possible US or Israeli strikes on acts of resistance targets, and it's of a significantly large enough threat and a large enough scale that they expect retaliation, hence the evacuation”, Farzan Sabet, managing researcher at the Geneva Graduate Institute, told The National.

Mr Sabet said the move could be “co-ordinated signalling because we've also seen many leaks about Israeli preparations to strike Iran to generate leverage for the US in nuclear talks with Iran”.

It comes ahead of a sixth round of talks between Washington and Tehran in an attempt to reach a nuclear deal. Mr Trump has threatened to bomb the country if Iran refuses to reach an agreement.

The US has given conflicting comments, though in recent weeks Mr Trump has more firmly stated that Tehran must stop its enrichment altogether.

The Omani-mediated talks will be held in Muscat on Sunday in a final attempt to get a framework and deal on Tehran’s nuclear activities and the lifting of Iranian sanctions.

The threat from Iran could be directed more at Israel, given reports of its readiness to attack nuclear sites if talks fail, rather than the US, Yesar Al Maliki, a Gulf Analyst at MEES, told The National.

“US foreign policy is divided between isolationist and interventionist agendas within administration ranks, Tehran's messaging could be directed at the former group,” he said.

Iran is “under pressure as talks with the US are yet to produce a mutually agreeable compromise on enrichment”, he said.

Iraq under possible threat

Iraq's leadership across the spectrum has been very concerned from any Israeli attacks on the country, Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq initiative at London’s Chatham House, told The National.

Prime Minister Mohamed Shia Al Sudani’s “government has managed thus far to keep Iraq insulated or relatively insulated from the wider violence and conflict”, he said.

However, the main concern is “whether either Israel or the US, especially some of the neoconservative elements in the US administration want to target Iran via Iraq, could push for this policy”.

“Iraq has always been connected in a way to the wider regional conflicts,” he said, adding that Baghdad still has the Popular Mobilisation Forces which “is somehow more or less connected to Iran's networks in the region and the axis of resistance”.

In response to the move by Mr Trump, an Iraqi military spokesman, Sabah Al Numan, said on Thursday that the evacuation of some US embassy personnel is a “regulatory precautionary measure related to them”.

Omar Al Nidawi, programmes director at Enabling Peace in Iraq Centre thinks that the "sudden unprompted move and Trump's remarks yesterday that the region 'could be a dangerous place' suggests it was more likely a stunt meant to put pressure on Iran ahead of talks than a real security precaution based on actual concerns", he told The National.

"It basically says the US is ready for a fight."