In just two years, since Sudan descended into a civil war between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, the conflict has created one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises.
Tens of thousands have died and millions more have been displaced and are on the brink of starvation. More than 30 million people, nearly two thirds of the population, are in desperate need of aid, according to a new report by NGO groups in Sudan, Chad and South Sudan.
While the army achieved significant victories recently, including the recapture of the capital Khartoum last month, the war is evolving into a new phase centred in Sudan’s western regions, according to Hatim Dirdiri, an analyst on African affairs.
“The first phase of the war was a battle for Khartoum,” said Mr Dirdiri. “Now, it will become a battle for the west of the country to prevent a Libya scenario from happening.”
No end to fighting
Army chief Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan repeatedly vowed to continue fighting until the RSF has been crushed. “We will neither forgive, nor compromise, nor negotiate,” he declared in a victory speech from Khartoum's presidential palace, after stepping foot in the building for the first time since the conflict began.
The army quickly consolidated its hold on the capital and is now moving to retake the nearby province of North Kordofan, where the RSF continues to hold some areas, according to sources in Port Sudan, where the army leadership, sanctioned by the US for rejecting peace efforts, relocated soon after the war began.
Retaking Kordofan will give the military control of a strategic road that will make it easier to maintain a hold on the areas it has captured, according to Mr Dirdiri.
However, the real test lies further west in El Fasher, the main city in North Darfur, where the RSF maintains a siege and has been massing its forces after losing Khartoum.
Civilian areas in Darfur have been bombarded repeatedly by the RSF in the past few days. According to the Mashad Organisation, a Paris-based Sudanese NGO that documents civilian deaths, 56 were killed and 17 injured on Sunday.
“These are tactics of shock,” Mr Dirdiri said. “The militia aims to make the army look weak and unable to defend the most vulnerable civilians in a bid to force Al Burhan back to the negotiating table.”
According to Mr Dirdiri, there are signs of instability in the RSF leadership, with a clear rise in the prominence of Abdul Raheem Dagalo, brother of the paramilitary's leader Gen Mohamed Dagalo.
Suffering unabated
While the army’s gains have shifted the war’s momentum, they have not alleviated the immense suffering of civilians. Hunger has reached unprecedented levels, with more than 24.6 million people facing food insecurity, according to a joint report by humanitarian organisations including the Danish Refugee Council, Care International, the International Rescue Committee and Mercy Corps.
Famine conditions have been confirmed in North Darfur, with 17 more areas under threat. Nearly 5 million children and pregnant women are acutely malnourished, according to the latest reports.
More than 12 million people have been displaced – 8.5 million internally and 3.7 million who have fled to neighbouring countries Chad, South Sudan and Egypt, according to the NGO forums.
Women and girls have borne the brunt of the violence, facing systematic exploitation. Reports indicate a 288 per cent increase in demand for services for survivors of abuse since the war began, according to Care Sudan, but many cases go unreported because of social stigma and underfunded support systems.
The healthcare system as a whole has collapsed. Hospitals and other medical centres have been bombed and looted, and shortages of medical staff and supplies have left millions without access to health care. Cholera and other diseases are spreading, while maternal and child health services are nearly non-existent.
Local organisations, particularly women-led groups supported by Care Sudan, have stepped in to provide essential services, but funding shortages are crippling their efforts.
Returnees driven by hope
Although there is no clear end to the war in sight, the army's recent gains appear to have inspired some Sudanese refugees to return. According to the International Organisation for Migration, 72,000 returned from Egypt in the first three months of this year – nearly twice as many as in all of 2024.
Mohamed Salam, who leads an initiative in Cairo to organise return trips for Sudanese migrants, told The National that the army’s campaign to retake Khartoum spurred a rise in those returning.
“When we launched the initiative in May last year, only a few people returned due to personal or financial crises,” Mr Salam said. “But each time the army liberated a city in Sudan, more people would book trips with me to return home.”
Mediation unlikely
However, the army's victories have also reduced the likelihood of a mediated solution to the conflict that would encourage large-scale returns, according to Mr Dirdiri.
“The army views the RSF as insurgent militias that undermine the Sudanese state,” he said. “As long as the West continues to frame the militia as a legitimate state actor, the army is unlikely to concede political ground and both sides have enough allies to hold out for much longer without meaningful political solutions.”
Efforts to mediate the conflict and deliver humanitarian aid have continued to fall short. The UN and African Union continue to call for ceasefires, but both warring sides remain entrenched, with little trust between them or in the international mediation itself.
The Jeddah Declaration, signed in 2023, committed both parties to enable humanitarian access, but aid workers still face bureaucratic and security hurdles.
Funding for relief efforts is critically low. Only 10 per cent of the $4.1 billion required for Sudan’s 2025 Humanitarian Response Plan has been secured, according to the joint report by humanitarian organisations.
Meanwhile, neighbouring countries hosting Sudanese refugees are struggling. Camps in Chad and South Sudan are overcrowded, and resources are scarce.
The World Food Programme has warned that without urgent funding, life-saving intervention could grind to a halt, accelerating the spread of hunger and disease across the region.
“We are still alive,” the NGOs' report quoted a Sudanese refugee in Chad as saying. “But we have no more strength left.”
