A military offensive by Yemen's internationally recognised government to take control of a Red Sea port from the Houthi rebels could begin soon, analysts believe. But there has been little assurance that the operation will receive the US backing needed to be successful.
The Iran-backed Houthis took control of Hodeidah in 2021. It is an entry point for humanitarian aid into Yemen and contains oil storage facilities.
After the US renewed air strikes against the Houthis, armed groups supporting the internationally recognised government have been preparing to march into Hodeidah, analysts said. The attacks on the port city have reportedly killed Houthi figures and weakened the group.
About 80,000 soldiers are being mobilised, said Abdulaziz Sager, founder of the Gulf Research Centre. The operations are not just planned for Hodeidah port, but the surrounding region known as the “fifth district” in western Yemen, and the Taiz province to the south, said Farea Al Muslimi, a fellow at the Chatham House think tank in London.
The capture of Hodeidah would be the “groundwork” for a takeover of the capital Sanaa, which has been under Houthi control since 2014. “It has always been the case that if Hodeidah goes down then Sanaa is next," said Mr Sager, speaking at the same Chatham House event. "We are at the stage of counting down the end of the Houthis.”
The group seized control of northern Yemen in 2014, sparking a civil war. A Saudi-led coalition intervened at the request of the internationally recognised government.
Since 2023, the Houthis have launched attacks on commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea, actions the group claims are in solidarity with the people of Gaza. The attacks on international shipping prompted the US strikes.
Post-war concerns
But a push to recapture Hodeidah comes with challenges. US military support is not guaranteed, owing to Washington's “inconsistent” foreign policy on Yemen, Mr Al Muslimi said. “There is a lot of illusion from the Yemeni government that they will be armed by the US or they will be given air cover,” he added.
The US has said it will not become involved in the Yemeni conflict. A Saudi-brokered peace process, which was handed over to the UN last year, has been stalled by the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
Gen Michael Kurilla of US Central Command met Lt Gen Sagheer Hamoud Ahmed Aziz, Chief of Staff of Yemen’s armed forces this week, and they discussed "ongoing efforts against the Iran-backed Houthis, including the current operation designed to restore freedom of navigation", Centcom said in a statement.
Rather, US decisions on Yemen would most likely be guided by Washington’s “domestic political calculations” and growing isolationism, Mr Al Muslimi said.
A military operation in Hodeidah would be “politically” difficult because it would breach the 2018 UN-sponsored Stockholm Agreement, he added. This required all parties to the conflict to withdraw from the port city, which the Houthis never did.
Yet there were concerns the internationally recognised government would lack legitimacy in Sanaa and had a limited capacity to govern. Its track record in southern Yemen was plagued by inefficient governance, electricity shortages and rising food prices.
“My honest concern is the next day. If they take Sanaa, what can they deliver to the people that will make them feel that now things are back to normal, there is safety and security, the law is there,” Mr Sager said.
These risks would be amplified by the growing isolation of the US and UK, two of the world's biggest donors to Yemen but that recently decreased foreign aid programmes. “The US is not in the government capacity-building space any more,” said Sanam Vakil, head of the Mena programme at Chatham House.
Mr Al Muslimi urged the US and its allies to turn their attention to Yemen’s peace process. “With some updates, it's still possible in the longer term. Yemen has the better chance of a political process, more than Libya, more than Syria."
Creeping Russian interests
A Houthi agreement with Moscow and Beijing to allow their ships to sail through the Bab Al Mandeb strait without being attacked adds further obstacles to a potential offensive on Hodeidah.
It is not known what the terms of the agreement are, but both Russia and China hold veto power at the UN Security Council and there have been Iran-brokered talks for Russia to send advanced anti-ship missiles to the Houthis. There has also been evidence of Houthis recruiting fighters to join the war in Ukraine.
“It is the elephant in the room, a real dark hole,” Mr Al Muslimi said, answering a question from The National, about the potential long-term affects of the Houthi agreement.
With Russia’s hold in Syria weakened by the toppling of former president Bashar Al Assad, Moscow seemed set to shift resources to Yemen. Russian regional experts previously stationed in Damascus were now in Sanaa, Mr Al Muslimi said. “Losing Syria will only make the Russian presence in Yemen stronger,” he added.
Russia’s recent attempts to open an embassy in Aden – the seat of the internationally recognised government – were mired by a request for free movement, which was rejected by the Yemeni side, Mr Sager said. “The government told them you cannot have free movement, because they know there is some sort of linkage, relations and supply happening,” he said.
Likewise, US President Donald Trump’s trade war with China was likely to make Beijing “more generous” in Yemen, Mr Al Muslimi added.
Update: In an earlier version of this article the quotation "We are at the stage of counting down the end of the Houthis" was wrongly attributed to Farea Al Muslimi. As corrected, above, it was made by another speaker who contributed to this article.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
RESULTS
5pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner: Yas Xmnsor, Sean Kirrane (jockey), Khalifa Al Neyadi (trainer)
5.30pm: Falaj Hazza – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Arim W’Rsan, Dane O’Neill, Jaci Wickham
6pm: Al Basrah – Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner: Kalifano De Ghazal, Abdul Aziz Al Balushi, Helal Al Alawi
6.30pm: Oud Al Touba – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner: Pharitz Oubai, Sean Kirrane, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7pm: Sieh bin Amaar – Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner: Oxord, Richard Mullen, Abdalla Al Hammadi
7.30pm: Jebel Hafeet – Conditions (PA) Dh85,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: AF Ramz, Sean Kirrane, Khalifa Al Neyadi
8pm: Al Saad – Handicap (TB) Dh70,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Sea Skimmer, Gabriele Malune, Kareem Ramadan
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Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
Countries recognising Palestine
France, UK, Canada, Australia, Portugal, Belgium, Malta, Luxembourg, San Marino and Andorra
More on Quran memorisation:
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Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
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Federer's 19 grand slam titles
Australian Open (5 titles) - 2004 bt Marat Safin; 2006 bt Marcos Baghdatis; 2007 bt Fernando Gonzalez; 2010 bt Andy Murray; 2017 bt Rafael Nadal
French Open (1 title) - 2009 bt Robin Soderling
Wimbledon (8 titles) - 2003 bt Mark Philippoussis; 2004 bt Andy Roddick; 2005 bt Andy Roddick; 2006 bt Rafael Nadal; 2007 bt Rafael Nadal; 2009 bt Andy Roddick; 2012 bt Andy Murray; 2017 bt Marin Cilic
US Open (5 titles) - 2004 bt Lleyton Hewitt; 2005 bt Andre Agassi; 2006 bt Andy Roddick; 2007 bt Novak Djokovic; 2008 bt Andy Murray
Roll of honour: Who won what in 2018/19?
West Asia Premiership: Winners – Bahrain; Runners-up – Dubai Exiles
UAE Premiership: Winners – Abu Dhabi Harlequins; Runners-up – Jebel Ali Dragons
Dubai Rugby Sevens: Winners – Dubai Hurricanes; Runners-up – Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Conference: Winners – Dubai Tigers; Runners-up – Al Ain Amblers
RESULTS
1.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,200m
Winner: Lady Parma, Richard Mullen (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer).
2.15pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,200m
Winner: Tabernas, Connor Beasley, Ahmed bin Harmash.
2.45pm: Handicap Dh95,000 1,200m
Winner: Night Castle, Connor Beasley, Satish Seemar.
3.15pm: Handicap Dh120,000 1,400m
Winner: Mystique Moon, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson.
3.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: Mutawakked, Szczepan Mazur, Musabah Al Muhairi.
4.15pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,800m
Winner: Tafaakhor, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
4.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,950m
Winner: Cranesbill, Fabrice Veron, Erwan Charpy.
SERIES INFO
Afghanistan v Zimbabwe, Abu Dhabi Sunshine Series
All matches at the Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Test series
1st Test: Zimbabwe beat Afghanistan by 10 wickets
2nd Test: Wednesday, 10 March – Sunday, 14 March
Play starts at 9.30am
T20 series
1st T20I: Wednesday, 17 March
2nd T20I: Friday, 19 March
3rd T20I: Saturday, 20 March
TV
Supporters in the UAE can watch the matches on the Rabbithole channel on YouTube
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The specs
Engine: 4 liquid-cooled permanent magnet synchronous electric motors placed at each wheel
Battery: Rimac 120kWh Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide (LiNiMnCoO2) chemistry
Power: 1877bhp
Torque: 2300Nm
Price: Dh7,500,00
On sale: Now