The US bombing campaign against Yemen's Houthi rebels complicates the already challenging process of reaching a political agreement to end more than decade of civil war in the country, officials and experts told The National.
For years, the UN has been pushing for a political solution to end the conflict that has killed more than 230,000 people and created one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
The latest US strikes, which began in mid-March, and the designation of the Iran-backed rebels as a terrorist group by the administration of President Donald Trump add another layer of complexity to those efforts.
“Military action alone cannot compel the Houthis to engage in negotiations. Achieving sustainable peace in Yemen necessitates a holistic strategy that extends beyond military force or sanctions,” Afrah Nasser, non-resident fellow at the Arab Centre Washington, DC, told The National.
“Initiating meaningful peace talks requires laying a foundation that goes beyond punitive measures, focusing instead on a comprehensive approach."
The Houthis began attacking shipping in the Red Sea after the outbreak of the Gaza war in October 2023, with the attacks disrupting the key trade route between Europe and Asia. The rebels claimed they were showing solidarity with Palestinians by attacking vessels with links to Israel and its main ally, the US. The attacks continued despite the US and the EU sending naval forces to the area, but paused when a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas began on January 19.
The Houthis threatened to resume their attacks because of an Israeli blockade on aid entering Gaza, prompting Washington to launch near daily strikes.
The rebels are likely to escalate attacks in the Red Sea despite the US campaign, resulting in an additional “layer of complexity to any discussions to reach a viable peace plan" in Yemen, said Baraa Shiban, associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.
“The previous format of the peace process is no longer viable. None of the Yemeni groups want to discuss the future with the Houthis while they are being targeted and labelled as a foreign terrorist organisation."
At the same time, the Houthis will place little trust in the UN. "They view western states as one bloc," he added. "As long as the US continues its strikes, they view the West as a whole being responsible for this kind of aggression."
The UN and other mediators must keep some "ties and back room doors open until the situation changes in the future", Mr Shiban said.
Hans Grundberg, the UN envoy to Yemen, did not respond to The National's request for comment.
The peace process gained momentum after Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to re-establish ties in a deal brokered by China in 2023. A Houthi delegation was invited to Riyadh for talks on a Yemen ceasefire later that year. However, that effort faltered after the start of the Gaza war.
"The peace process has been frozen since October 7, 2023, and it’s difficult to resume under the current circumstances unless the Houthis change course and stop operations in the maritime lanes," Marwan Ali Noman, former Yemeni deputy permanent representative to the UN, told The National.
But he added that “sanctions and strikes are effective tools to deter the Houthis and encourage others to designate this militia as a terrorist organisation". It is vital to ensure that sanctions do not worsen the humanitarian situation in Yemen, he said.
What is the alternative?
A member of Yemen's internationally recognised government told The National that it needed support from the global community to regain control over the Red Sea. Without that it will be difficult to push for peace, the official said.
"We need to have full control of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, otherwise the negotiations will be pointless. We need to have tools to pressure the Houthi militias," the official said.
"For sustainable solutions, the government must be empowered to regain full control over its territory, with a focus on fostering development and long term stability."
The official added that "Iranian influence must be deterred" and warned that "a delay in ending the Iranian threat will be consequential for the world".
Sanam Vakil, Middle East programme director at Chatham House in London, said there was a need for a "multifaceted strategy that goes beyond the already tested and never fully successful military approach".
Work must be done to build a peace process, including local conflict resolution, that would be supported by the region, she said.
“Supporting the internationally recognised government is needed in the short run," Ms Vakil said. But beyond that "there are a host of other measures, such as economic development, security sector reform and enhanced maritime security, that would be important to see alongside the political efforts".
On the other hand, Thomas Juneau, a Middle East analyst and professor at the University of Ottawa in Canada, said there were few “prospects for a viable peace process" in Yemen, even before the Gaza war began and the US launched strikes on the Houthis.
“Renewed strikes could, in theory, serve to pressure the Houthis to come to the negotiating table eventually,” he said. But that is unlikely to happen in the “absence of a broader diplomatic strategy by the US".
