Egypt is actively working with discreet diplomacy to persuade as many Arab heads of state as possible to participate in an emergency summit scheduled for next week, sources said on Monday, exerting its regional weight to persuade the Arab League's 22 members to take a meaningful stand against US President Donald Trump's Gaza plans.
The sources, which are familiar with Cairo's diplomatic campaign and a senior Arab diplomat, said Egypt's effort is driven by its firm belief in the gravity of the situation in Gaza and that the March 4 summit has the potential to have an enduring impact on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
"Much more than in past summits, the success of this one depends on who attends. The more heads of state, the more weight the gathering's resolutions will have," said one of the sources. "With the Palestinian cause on the line this time, it's expected that most heads of state will show up."
Of particular interest to the Egyptians, they explained, was the representation at the highest level of the Gulf Co-operation Council, whose six members have close relations with the US as well as significant leverage within Washington's political establishment.
Egypt, which neighbours both Gaza and Israel, views Gaza as part of its national security sphere and has, along with Jordan, strongly opposed President Trump's plan for it to take the territory's 2.3 million residents while the US takes over the coastal enclave and turns it into the "Riviera of the Middle East".
Both Egypt and Jordan, which are longtime US allies, see the American President's plan as an unacceptable attempt to hollow out the Palestinian cause, but have been careful in their official pronouncements not to personally attack Mr Trump or speak critically about his administration. International rights groups, however, have labelled his plans as ethnic cleansing - a war crime.
Egypt, which fought four wars against Israel before the two countries signed a peace treaty in 1979, wants to see the Arab summit produce a united and strong opposition front that could persuade Mr Trump to drop his controversial vision for Gaza, said the sources and the diplomat.
Mr Trump said last week that he would not impose his plan, but reiterated his faith in his idea. “I’m not forcing it. I’m just going to sit back and recommend it,” he told Fox News Radio. "Another way to do it is with people there, but I don't think it would work. I like my plan," he added.
Domestically, it's imperative that President Abdel Fattah El Sisi's government is seen by Egyptians, who are reeling from the worst economic crisis in living memory and see the Palestinian cause as an integral part of their identity, to be standing firmly behind Palestinian rights.
Egypt also wants the summit to adopt its plan for the reconstruction of war-battered Gaza as a viable substitute for the US President's proposals. An endorsement of its plan to host an international conference on Gaza's reconstruction is another item on Egypt's wishlist, said the sources.
Egypt's plan, sources have said, envisages the creation of safe zones for Palestinians to live in while work is done. Its initial stages would focus on restoring essential services and temporary housing. It also entails the creation of an independent Palestinian agency to co-ordinate and oversee the reconstruction. Members of the agency will be technocrats who have the support of all Palestinian factions, according to the sources.
Defeating Mr Trump's plan, which has been enthusiastically embraced by Israel, will not be an easy task and could bring unwanted consequences for Egypt. The country's diplomatic effort to drum up opposition to Mr Trump's proposals is being made at a time when the country's national security is being severely tested by strife in neighbouring Sudan and Libya, and with it embroiled in a long-running and bitter dispute with Ethiopia over its vital share of water from the Nile.
Egypt, moreover, is still smarting from its worst economic crisis in decades, something that has been sowing popular discontent and drawing repeated government assurances that the worst is over. Already, the rejection by Egypt and Jordan of Mr Trump's plan has drawn a threat by the US President to halt billions of dollars in economic and military aid to the two countries.
Beside the damage to Egypt if Mr Trump follows through on his threat, the most populous Arab nation could also lose Washington's valuable support for some of its central foreign policy issues, like the water dispute with Ethiopia and efforts to end the civil war in Sudan and more than a decade of turmoil and violence in Libya.
Moreover, Egypt has since the 1980s relied heavily on US aid to modernise its military and is now annually receiving $1.3 billion worth of arms, spare parts and training. US support for Egypt's cause among international lenders like the IMF and the World Bank has also been instrumental to Cairo's efforts to overhaul its economy.
"Egypt sees keeping the Palestinians inside Gaza while the reconstruction gets under way as a matter of national security, but Trump can and will likely use America's global clout to dissuade potential donors from funding the work in Gaza," said another source. "However, Egypt and other stakeholders in the region could use the emerging fissures between the Trump administration and other world powers, like the EU, to actively participate in the reconstruction."
Separately, and perhaps just as importantly, the success of Egypt's efforts hinges on several vital variables, including reaching a permanent Gaza ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal from the territory, developments that look increasingly unlikely given the fragility of the six-week truce that went into effect on January 19.
The thorny question of who will rule postwar Gaza is another formidable challenge, with Israel saying it is not ready to tolerate either Hamas or the Palestinian Authority ruling the territory. Israel also insists on retaining a security role in postwar Gaza, creating safe zones in the territory's east and north as well as the complete dismantling of Hamas's military and governance capabilities.
The sources added that time is not on Egypt's side either. Life is proving extremely difficult in large parts of Gaza after 15 months of relentless Israeli bombardment, with thousands leaving their homes in the particularly devastated north to return to regions to which they had been displaced during the fighting.
The sources also claimed that Israel was quietly working both directly and through third parties to persuade Gaza's residents to leave and resettle abroad, with promises of job opportunities and a safer life. The campaign, they said, was being actively countered by Hamas, which continues to function as Gaza's rulers despite being significantly weakened by the war.
"The Americans and the Israelis are discussing scenarios other than the forcible eviction of Palestinians from Gaza," said the Arab diplomat. "It's been Israel's plan all along to create conditions in Gaza so unbearable that people will want to voluntarily leave."
