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US-led mediators and Israeli and Hamas negotiators were studying a complex draft deal to pause the Gaza war and enable the release of hostages, sources told The National on Tuesday, a day after President Joe Biden declared that an agreement was “on the brink” of being finalised.
“There is progress in all components of the agreement formula. We are not quite at the final closure and details are not there yet, but we are definitely in advanced stages,” a senior Israeli official told reporters. “There is talk of an agreement in the near future, but it is impossible to say whether it is a matter of hours or days.”
A Palestinian source said he expected the deal to be finalised on Tuesday if “all goes well”, Reuters reported.
Ending the war in Gaza would be a milestone for the Middle East. The conflict has significantly altered the region's political and military landscape. It has led to a war in Lebanon, drawn Iran into an exchange of direct attacks with Israel and prompted Tehran's proxy in Yemen, the Houthis, to launch missiles and drones on Israel and attack shipping in the Red Sea, disrupting global trade through Egypt's Suez Canal.
A truce would give Gaza its first respite from war since November 2023 when a week-long ceasefire saw about 100 hostages released by Hamas in exchange for almost 250 Palestinians held in Israeli jails.
Previous attempts by the mediators to negotiate another deal have faltered at the final stages as Israel and Hamas refused to show flexibility. However, Donald Trump's victory in the November US presidential election and his repeated threat that there would be “hell to pay” if the hostages were not released before his January 20 inauguration have re-energised the negotiations.
“This is the closest point we have been to a deal over the past months,” Qatar's Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed Al Ansari said on Tuesday in Doha where, according to the sources, the mediators and negotiators are debating some of the more intricate details of the draft and mapping out a mechanism for its implementation.
The source said late on Monday that both Hamas and Israel have given their approval in principle to the draft, the first time both sides have agreed on a blueprint to end the war in over a year.
Those involved in the final push for a deal are David Barnea, director of Israel's Mossad spy agency; Ronen Bar, director of Israel's Shin Bet internal security; Steve Witkoff, Mr Trump's incoming Middle East envoy; Brett McGurk, Mr Biden's outgoing Middle East envoy; and Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman.
A notable absence from the US team is CIA director William Burns, who had often acted as his country's chief mediator in the past year. US ally Egypt is represented by top intelligence officials while Hamas is represented by Khalil Al Hayah, the most powerful official from the group's leadership in exile, the sources said.
Mohammed Sinwar, the de facto leader of Hamas in Gaza after Israel killed his older brother, Yahya Sinwar, in October, was being constantly updated on the progress of the talks, they said.
“In the war between Israel and Hamas, we're on the brink of a proposal that I laid out in detail months ago finally coming to fruition,” Mr Biden said in a farewell speech at the State Department on Monday. Earlier on Monday, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said a deal could be finalised this week.
A draft of the agreement that was seen by The National but could not be independently verified, provides for a 42-day truce, a limited release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian detainees in Israel, a partial Israeli withdrawal, the return home of unarmed Palestinians displaced by the fighting and the entry of more humanitarian assistance to Gaza.
The Gaza war was started by a Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, when its fighters killed about 1,200 people and kidnapped about 250. The attack drew an Israeli response that has to date killed more than 46,600 people and injured more than twice that number, Gaza health authorities say. Most of the Palestinian territory's 2.3 million people have been displaced and large areas of built-up regions have been reduced to rubble.
Hamas and allied militant groups are believed to be still holding about 100 hostages, of whom the Israeli military says as many as 40 have died in captivity. At least 33 hostages, including the bodies of the dead, would be released at the rate of three a week during the initial truce, with women, minors, the elderly and ailing hostages included in the first batch.
According to the draft, the release of hostages in exchange for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons will depend on the commitment of both sides to the terms of the proposed deal, including observing the truce, Israel's withdrawal and the return home of the displaced, as well as the entry of aid.
Israel will halt all aerial activity during the truce for 10 hours every day and 12 hours on days when the exchange of hostages for detainees is taking place, according to the draft. The fate of 100 Palestinian prisoners and detainees serving long jail terms who Hamas wants freed would be discussed at a later stage, the draft says.
The sources said Palestinians convicted of murder or deadly attacks could be released by Israel but on condition they and their families go into exile outside the Palestinian territories.
They said Israel was unlikely to fully withdraw from Gaza. Instead, it intends to create buffer zones on the enclave's borders to protect communities in its southern region. It will initially withdraw from parts of the Philadelphi corridor bordering Egypt on the Gaza side but only after security arrangements are put in place, they said.
The draft stipulates the release of 30 to 50 Palestinians for every hostage freed by Hamas. The proposed deal also provides for the daily arrival of 600 lorries laden with humanitarian assistance, including 50 carrying fuel. Half of the convoy will head to the north of the Gaza Strip, by far the most devastated part of the coastal enclave. Hospitals, bakeries and medical centres would be repaired and brought back into operation.
Machinery to remove debris would enter Gaza during the 42-day truce and at least 60,000 caravans and 200,000 tents would be allowed in to house residents who have lost their homes.
Israel and Hamas will engage in indirect negotiations starting no later than the 16th day of the truce to iron out details of the second phase of the deal and the release of the remaining hostages, mostly Israeli soldiers and civilian men.
The Israeli official who briefed reporters on Tuesday said any agreement would first have to be approved by the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his security cabinet. Time will also have to be allowed for a possible petition against the agreement in the High Court.
“So, even once they have negotiated the agreement, it will take a little more time. However, we will be prepared to implement things very quickly,” he said.
Far-right Israeli politicians have meanwhile doubled down on their opposition to a deal, with National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir boasting on X that he had prevented the “terrible” deal on a number of occasions during the past year. He also called on far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a political ally, to resign from government if the deal passes.
“I call on the Prime Minister to come to his senses and take steps that will lead to the defeat of Hamas and the release of our hostages without abandoning Israel's security: completely stop the transfer of humanitarian aid and fuel, electricity, and water to Gaza, along with continuing the military crushing of Hamas until its complete defeat,” he added.
