Lebanon has ended its presidential deadlock by electing Joseph Aoun as its new head of state, but the former army commander faces many immediate decisions to address the country's multifaceted crises.
The challenges are pressing as the 60-day deadline for Israel to withdraw from Lebanon under a ceasefire agreement expires in a few weeks, while the new president also set out several ambitious aims during his inaugural speech to the 128-seat parliament.
His first task is to appoint a prime minister. This will follow consultations with all MPs and parliamentary blocs at the presidential palace in Baabda starting on Monday.
Current Prime Minister Najib Mikati, whose cabinet has held acting head of state powers during the presidential impasse of more than two years, said he was ready to be prime minister again if asked, but that he required a “period of rest”.
Mr Aoun said he asked Mr Mikati to continue in his role until a new prime minister is chosen. While Mr Mikati has boasted of enjoying good relations with Lebanon's new leader, the true strength of their ties is unknown.
There are no clear indications yet of who could fill the role but under Lebanon's confessional system, the prime minister must be a Sunni Muslim.
Presidential powers curtailed
The powers of the Lebanese president have evolved, particularly after the 1989 Taif Agreement, which redefined the balance of power in the country's political system.
Before the Taif Agreement, the president, traditionally a Maronite Christian, held extensive executive powers, including appointing the prime minister, forming governments and presiding over the Council of Ministers. However, the agreement, aimed at ending Lebanon's civil war and fostering sectarian balance, curtailed the president's authority by redistributing executive powers to the Council of Ministers collectively, led by a Sunni Muslim prime minister.
The president retained ceremonial roles, the ability to consult on government formation and limited veto powers but became more of a symbolic unifier than a dominant executive force. “The President of the Republic shall designate the prime minister in consultation with the President of the Chamber of Deputies based on binding parliamentary consultations, the content of which he shall formally disclose to the latter,” Article 53 of the constitution says.
Lebanon's parliament is made up of many factions and sects, highlighting the country's religious diversity. No bloc holds a majority, which is why Lebanon is no stranger to political vacuums. The plethora of political parties and religions will need to be accounted for when the horse trading over the make-up of the cabinet begins.
It is not an easy task. Mr Aoun's predecessor Michel Aoun, also a former army commander, was unable to agree on the make-up of the cabinet during his term.
A new prime minister means a fully empowered government which can ease the process of filling crucial senior state positions – such as the central bank governor and head of General Security.
With a government in place, Lebanon will stand on more stable ground when negotiating with Israel. A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has halted more than a year of hostilities and three months of war in Lebanon. With the deal expiring on January 26, a new Lebanese cabinet could lead the talks, further undermining Hezbollah's role in the political scene.
Lofty ambitions but people are hopeful
Hezbollah is weakened by 15 months of war, with its senior leadership obliterated, but it is still a highly potent power. By going with a western-backed president, it is unclear if the heavily armed Shiite, Iran-backed group gained any concessions for positions in the next cabinet.
In his speech to parliament on Thursday, the new president said all arms should be in the hands of the state. Those comments were received positively by most MPs, but not Hezbollah, which has built its image on being a military resistance against Israel.
For the first time in nearly three decades, Lebanon's elected president falls outside the party’s sphere of influence, a major political shift.
But what separates the two former army commanders, Joseph Aoun and Michel Aoun, is that the former did not come from a political background while the latter did.
“He is the first one who did not come from a political background or was forced through by Syria,” said Beirut resident Mustafa Fayyad, walking through the capital's upmarket Achrafieh neighbourhood.
The Assad regime in Syria had a major influence on its neighbour, occupying Lebanon from 1976 to 2005. But that all changed when Bashar Al Assad was toppled last month.
“I trust him because he is the army commander,” said Maroun Kassis, offering cautious optimism that the new president could deliver on his speech. The army is highly respected in Lebanese society.
Under the US-brokered ceasefire deal, Israel has until the end of January to withdraw from southern Lebanon and Hezbollah must withdraw north of the Litani River. The Lebanese army is to bolster its numbers in south Lebanon and ensure Hezbollah has withdrawn.
Mr Aoun vowed to implement the ceasefire deal, promote independence in the judiciary and protect the assets of depositors – who lost their life savings in 2019 in a financial collapse blamed on decades of corruption and mismanagement by the ruling Lebanese elite.
Beirut resident Mr Fayyad was more cautious about financial future, saying: “For our bank savings, I'm not so sure.”
