Nearly one million Syrian refugees expected to return in first half of 2025

Mountain of challenges awaits refugees and 7 million internally displaced Syrians if they head home

Syrian families living in Turkey walk towards the Cilvegozu border gate to cross into Syria. Turkey hosts more than three million Syrian refugees. Getty Images

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Around one million Syrian refugees are expected to return to their home country between January and June 2025, a senior UN refugee agency official has said, in a movement that could eventually end the largest displacement crisis in the world.

Since the outbreak of Syria's civil war in 2011, more than 14 million Syrians have fled their homes in search of safety. Half that number remain internally displaced in a country where 70 per cent of the population is in need of humanitarian assistance, the UN estimates.

But thousands, especially from neighbouring Turkey and Lebanon, have started trickling back home in the past week, after the collapse on December 8 of Bashar Al Assad's 24-year regime following a blitzkrieg launched by rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS). About three million Syrian migrants and refugees are in Turkey, making it the biggest host of Syrians who have fled the civil war.

“We have forecasted that we hope to see somewhere in the order of one million Syrians returning between January and June of next year,” Rema Jamous Imseis, the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) director for the Middle East and North Africa, said at a press conference in Geneva.

She said UNHCR is seeking $310 million to address the critical needs of the returnees, but emphasised that though Syria's regime change brings hope for peace and stability, it does not mean the humanitarian crisis has ended. “Syrians inside and outside the country still need protection and support,” Ms Imseis added.

She called on countries hosting Syrian refugees not to rush sending them back, and stressed that Syrians should maintain their right to seek asylum.

“Any refugee returns must be voluntary, safe and dignified. We must not forget that the last 14 years have created a humanitarian catastrophe on so many levels in Syria, including the destruction of large parts of the country, homes and infrastructure,” Ms Imseis said.

Families queue to enter Syria at Cilvegozu in Turkey, which is the biggest host of Syrians who have fled the civil war. AFP

After the Assad regime fell, European countries hosting millions of refugees announced they were suspending Syrian asylum applications, while some governments are pushing for the return of refugees.

Ms Imseis said it is still “too early to determine” whether it is safe for people to return to Syria. She called for refugees and other concerned people to have more time to evaluate the safety of returning.

Mountain of challenges

It is not only refugees from abroad, but also Syria’s more than seven million internally displaced population who are eager to return home.

As people move back to areas ravaged by war, a “mountain of challenges” awaits them, Ahmed Bayram, regional media adviser for the Norwegian Refugee Council, told The National. “It could be easier for the internally displaced people to go back. But they face a range of issues including documentation, property ownership, security and safety, among others.”

Mr Bayram said entire communities across the western provinces of Aleppo, Hama and Homs have turned into “ghost towns” and suffered large-scale destruction. “There is a serious lack of services and infrastructure. There are no schools, bakeries, hospitals.”

Basic necessities such as water and electricity are unreliable, and there is a lack of economic opportunities for those who have employment in the areas they fled to. “We have spoken to many people and it is clear that there is a strong desire to return. But the ground realities are forcing them to wait it out as well,” Mr Bayran said.

Syria requires the “largest recovery mission” the world has seen in the recent history, for rebuilding and rehabilitation. “The world is waking up to realise how underfunded the humanitarian sector in Syria is,” said Mr Bayram.

He said the huge political interest in the country from global powers should transform into enthusiasm for humanitarian assistance. “We are also eager to expand and scale up our operations if funding allows us.”

Now the security situation has improved, UNHCR said its organisations and partners are on the ground in Syria, “rapidly resuming assistance and support programmes”. “Over 80 per cent of our community centres across the country are functioning again after a brief pause,” said Ms Imseis.

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One million newly displaced

Refugees who fled a decade ago are now joined by a new cohort, created by clashes in the north of Syria. UNHCR estimates this group numbers more than one million, mostly women and children.

“In the past three weeks, we have seen more than one million people forced to flee their homes, thousands of Syrian refugees returning, and thousands of Syrians fleeing the country,” she said.

According to Human Rights Watch, tens of thousands of civilians seeking safety in Kurdish-controlled north-east Syria are facing dire conditions due to inadequate shelter, water, food and health care. It said more than 100,000 people have fled from Aleppo to areas governed by the Kurdish-led Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria.

The Turkey-backed Syrian National Army is fighting the US-backed, Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and clashes are continuing in Deir Ezzor, Manbij in Aleppo governorate, and Kobane, driving displacement of mostly Kurds, but also Arabs and other communities, said a report from the NGO. Turkey has also been launching strikes against SDF positions.

“Amid the extraordinary events taking place in Syria, intense fighting and fear of retaliation and violence by armed groups is displacing thousands of civilians to areas unprepared for such an influx,” said Adam Coogle, deputy Middle East director at Human Rights Watch. Mr Bayram said camps are overflowing with thousands of people and conditions are dire without water, electricity and bathrooms. “It is a crisis overlooked in an area impoverished by years of conflict. It is another humanitarian crisis that has been unfolding for years.”