Amos Hochstein reveals how Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire was achieved and what comes next

The US envoy says efforts to stop the war started after Hezbollah was weakened

US special envoy Amos Hochstein speaks during a press conference in Beirut, Lebanon, 19 November 2024. EPA

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US envoy Amos Hochstein successfully secured a ceasefire deal last week between Hezbollah and Israel, halting a devastating 13-month war that claimed over 4,000 Lebanese lives and displaced residents on both sides of the border.

On Saturday, he revealed at the Doha Forum in Qatar that the efforts began only after the Iran-backed group suffered a series of significant setbacks starting in September, including the loss of its entire leadership, such as its long-serving secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah.

He detailed the origins of the ceasefire negotiations, the process through which they were conducted, and the foundation of the final agreement while urging all parties to honour the deal and warning of potential consequences if it were violated.

The US official highlighted that the agreement aimed not only to stop the war but also to change the status quo on the Lebanese-Israeli border. He stressed that the deal was designed to enable displaced Israelis in the north to return after a year of displacement and to ensure their safety from threats like the Hamas October 7 attacks.

For months, Mr Hochstein did not believe a ceasefire was achievable, citing Hezbollah's unyielding statements that the war would continue indefinitely unless tied to a resolution in Gaza.

“The reality is we didn't actually try to get [a] ceasefire in the first instance,” he stressed. “I didn't see that as a possibility because of the Hezbollah statements, week after week, month after month: we will not stop no matter what, unless there is a lasting ceasefire in Gaza, or sometimes as long as Israel is inside Gaza.”

Then came September.

During that month, Israel intensified its military operations against Hezbollah. These actions included airstrikes and a ground invasion aimed at degrading its capabilities, which had been significantly bolstered in recent years. Israel's campaign focused on dismantling key command-and-control structures and eliminating high-ranking members of Hezbollah’s leadership.

We saw an opening to try to change the equation

Amos Hochstein

The scale of the strikes that killed thousands of civilians in days marked a shift in Israel’s strategy, moving from deterrence to a more proactive approach aimed at crippling the Iran-backed militia’s ability to wage war.

“We saw an opening to try to change the equation,” said Mr Hochstein, whose official title is Special Presidential Co-ordinator for Global Infrastructure and Energy Security.

“Hezbollah was losing the war, the physical war, which is very different from what it was in 2006, which was kind of fought to a draw... Israel was making clear gains on the battlefield."

US President Joe Biden announced the ceasefire deal on November 27, ending the brutal conflict with Hezbollah that saw entire Lebanese villages wiped off the map. The terms involve a 60-day truce, during which Israel would have to withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon in a “phased manner.” This would coincide with the withdrawal of Hezbollah fighters from the border and the deployment of thousands of Lebanese Army troops.

Lebanese soldiers man an armoured vehicle in the southern Lebanese town of Yater on December 7, 2024. AFP

The breakthrough came by addressing key challenges: decoupling the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, ensuring that the Lebanese Army would take over, and designing a solution that would not revert to the pre-October 6 status quo.

“The solution was not going back to October 6… which some in Lebanon saw as that is the goal. Let’s go back to where it was before. But the trauma, the psyche in Israel, meant that that’s not possible. So we had to design something that would allow for Israeli communities to go back to their homes in northern Israel, feeling that there was not a potential for [an] October 7[-]like attack on the other side,” explained the US official.

He was then asked: was it a surrender from the Lebanese side?

“No, it's not a surrender. It's a ceasefire deal. It's not since World War Two I can think of an example where one side, fully defeated, signs a letter of surrender. It's not a peace agreement, either. This is not an end-of-conflict agreement. It's a ceasefire,” emphasised Mr. Hochstein.

He also said that Lebanon happened to be the playground that Hezbollah and Iran chose as “the host” for this conflict, but the Lebanese people did not go to war against Israel or vice versa. “If [Hamas late leader Yahya] Sinwar, before he died, said, I'm happy with this being a forever war... so does that mean that the Lebanese people are voluntarily saying that we're going to have a forever war between Israel and Hezbollah?”

Mr Hochstein underscored that the ceasefire deal was also built on the foundations of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war but was never fully implemented.

“We had to get to a deal that would be based on 1701 but with elements that allowed it to actually be implemented,” he said, noting the absence of legacy issues like territorial claims or hostages in the Lebanon-Israel conflict. This, he suggested, was key to the success of the ceasefire.

Warning of consequences

In the first week following the signing of the ceasefire agreement, Israel and Hezbollah accused each other of violating the agreement, with several Lebanese killed by Israeli fire. But an international committee that would oversee the ceasefire started working, and that could stabilize the situation.

“They have to honour the deal. And because the difference here is that if you do not honour this deal, there will be consequences,” warned Mr Hochstein.

If you're Lebanese, this is your moment to stand up

Amos Hochstein

In the first days too, the Lebanese Army began deploying thousands of troops to southern Lebanon. A senior Hezbollah official confirmed to The National that the group was committed to allowing the army to carry out its duties, signaling a shift in its stance and willingness to adhere to the agreement.

The official spoke after the group acknowledged the setbacks it had suffered, while insisting that merely surviving the war without being completely eliminated somehow constituted a “victory.”

For Mr Hochstein, Hezbollah was defeated on a regional level, losing between 50 to 70 percent of its weapons, and may not be able to fight Israel or even help its ally in neighboring Syria, President Bashar Al Assad, counter a massive rebel offensive.

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“A significant portion of their weapons are gone. A significant amount of their fighters are either dead or in no capacity to fight. I think the morale is fairly low… They suffered terrible losses in southern Lebanon by Israel. But they also now have Syria, where the reliance on the Iranians to come in with heavy weaponry and transfers of weapons is curtailed,” he explained.

However, that doesn't mean “that they don't have enough strength to maintain a position, politically in Lebanon, and to push people around,” according to Mr Hochstein.

He emphasised that what’s happening in Syria, where the government forces lost entire cities to rebel forces, “is now creating a new weakness for Hezbollah, because it's going to make it very difficult for Iran, who's pulling out of Syria to some degree, being able to transfer weapons in".

The rebels’ offensive against the Syrian forces and their allies from Iran and Hezbollah started a day after the ceasefire in Lebanon was announced. “It’s hard to call it unintended entirely,” said Mr Hochstein.

For much of the past four years, Mr Hochstein has been Mr. Biden's primary point man for Israel and Lebanon, helping to negotiate an agreement in 2022 that established a maritime boundary between the countries, which do not have diplomatic ties.

At first glance, Mr Hochstein might seem like an unusual choice to lead mediation efforts. He was born in Jerusalem to American parents. The father of four is often seen at international events in well-fitting suits with slicked-back hair, working crowds with ease. It is that ability to connect that some say makes him a skilled negotiator.

“If you're Lebanese, this is your moment to stand up and to say, we want to take Lebanon back, and not do it at the dinner parties, but to do it, you know, on the street and in the politics,” affirmed the US official who served in the Israeli military in the early 1990s.