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Ceasefire talks between Hezbollah and Israel mediated by US envoy Amos Hochstein were “positive” in Beirut ahead of his crucial meetings in Israel, but Lebanese concerns now centre on whether the US can ensure Israel respects their sovereignty, sources close to the negotiations told The National.
Mr Hochstein is set to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday to finalise an agreement that could see Israeli troops withdraw from southern Lebanon within days, with the main sticking point being the interpretation of a clause on “self-defence”.
The ceasefire proposal outlines a truce during which Israel would withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon within seven days, as Beirut posts army troops to the border and Hezbollah fighters retreat, enabling thousands of displaced Israelis to return to their homes in the north.
A US-led committee would be established during this period to oversee a permanent ceasefire involving UN peacekeepers in Lebanon (Unifil), Lebanese and Israeli officials, and representatives from countries such as the UK and Germany, according to sources and the draft proposal seen by The National.
However, Israel, which has been relentlessly bombing Lebanon for months, insists on retaining the freedom to act against targets in the neighbouring country if the agreement is violated. Meanwhile, Lebanese officials and Iran-backed Hezbollah emphasise that the deal must safeguard Lebanon's sovereignty.
“The atmosphere is very positive,” said a source in Beirut involved in the negotiations.
“The question now is whether the American administration can guarantee that Israel will not continue to violate Lebanon’s sovereignty if a ceasefire is reached, because the Americans said that the issue will be resolved with their guarantee,” explained the source.
It remains unclear whether this means Lebanon is prepared to accept a deal with an ambiguous definition of “the right of both sides to self-defence” outlined in the agreement, in exchange for US guarantees.
Sources close to the talks told The National on Wednesday that the ceasefire deal hinges on the clause, but efforts are under way to craft a formula that satisfies both parties “without implying” that Israel has “unrestricted freedom” of movement against targets in Lebanon.
A western diplomatic source hailed the negotiations as “a step in the right direction,” adding, that "the fact that these negotiations are taking place is progress in itself".
However, several challenges remain, the source warned, including "the details of how the ceasefire will be implemented, the timetable, the withdrawal process, and who will take the first step to cease fire while Israeli forces are still on Lebanese territory add a layer of complexity that may take time to resolve".
Freedom to act
According to a Lebanese political source, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who was negotiating on behalf of Hezbollah, added his comments to the proposed draft during discussions. The current draft also reflects Mr Hochstein's contacts with the Israeli side while at the US embassy in Beirut.
“The constants set by Speaker Berri and Hezbollah are that Israel must not violate Lebanese sovereignty in the future,” the source stated.
“The basis for the negotiations is Resolution 1701. Speaker Berri has repeatedly stated that Israel has violated it more than 30,000 times since its issuance in 2006, and the issue should not be portrayed as the only problem being the presence of Hezbollah” near the border.
Lebanese officials have repeatedly said they are committed to implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war and requires all armed forces except the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers to withdraw from the Lebanese side of the border with Israel. It also requires Israel to stop violating Lebanese airspace – but the resolution was never fully implemented.
The western diplomatic source stressed that the main challenge is providing credible guarantees to both sides for properly implementing the 1701, without drafting a new resolution.
“The Lebanese army’s redeployment to the south could also be a reassuring factor,” the source stated. “But it is crucial that the Lebanese army does not end up acting as a border guard for Israel".
“On the Lebanese side, there have been significant and positive shifts,” noted the source.
Hezbollah has now explicitly separated the Gaza front from the Lebanese front in a notable change of stance. For months, the group had repeated that it would not stop its attacks on Israel without a Gaza ceasefire.
The source emphasised that the biggest question remained Israel's willingness to engage and warned of possible setbacks. "In the past, we've seen negotiations that seemed promising followed by a dramatic turnaround”. The diplomatic source recalled September 27, when a similarly positive atmosphere ended with Israel killing Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in a massive attack in Beirut.
“There is always a risk of a sudden change in tone. The outcome largely depends on the Israeli side—how it views the political situation in the US, the shift in the US administration, and broader international dynamics."
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar insisted on Wednesday that Israel must maintain “the freedom to act if there are violations”, while Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said that “the Israeli side expects to achieve through the agreement what it could not secure in war, and this is not possible”.
Israel intensified its attacks on Lebanon in late September, killing thousands and devastating much of the country. More than 3,500 people have been killed and 1.4 million displaced since conflict broke out in the border regions in October last year, in parallel with Israel's war on Gaza. As negotiations continued, the Israeli army issued four eviction orders within nine hours on Thursday, targeting villages in southern Lebanon and buildings in the southern suburbs of Beirut, which were later struck by missiles.
In his speech, Mr Qassem warned that Hezbollah, which has lost most of its senior leaders in strikes and suffered unprecedented blows since September, is prepared for a “war of attrition” if negotiations fail, threatening attacks on central Tel Aviv.
“Our party operates according to two principles, which are to stop the Israeli aggression in a comprehensive manner and to fully preserve Lebanon's sovereignty,” a source close to Hezbollah said on Thursday.
“The main test for the results of Hochstein's visit is what the Israeli side will decide now,” he added.
