For the first time in nearly four decades, Iraq will this week conduct a nationwide census, a task that promises to deliver critical data to guide development and potentially redefine the country’s political and economic landscape.
However, beneath the promise of this ambitious endeavour, slated for Wednesday and Thursday, lies a web of political tension, fears of manipulation and unresolved disputes over territory and identity.
“This census is the first comprehensive development census for all Iraq to be conducted in 37 years,” Planning Minister Mohammed Ali Tamim said this week.
“It will provide us, as a government and for the successive governments, with the roadmap that is needed to draw the development map, to deliver services and to implement projects for the citizens.”
Iraq has carried out several censuses since the first one in 1920, which was conducted by British authorities. After a fourth one in 1947, the Iraqi monarchy established a law mandating a census every 10 years.
The eighth census in 1987 was the last one that covered all of Iraq. The most recent one in 1997 did not include the northern semi-autonomous Kurdish region, which then had acquired international protection after the Iraqi army was driven out of Kuwait in the 1991 Gulf War.
There were attempts to conduct a census after the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein, but political infighting over several issues, most notably tension over disputed territories, as well as security concerns, lack of funds and the coronavirus pandemic led to it being put off several times.
During the hiatus, the Central Organisation for Statistics and Information Technology – the Iraqi government's statistics agency – has been conducting estimates. According to their figures, the population stands at about 43 million, based mainly on an annual birth rate of between 850,000 and one million a year.
National priority
Holding a census was a priority of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani when he took office in October 2022. Mr Al Sudani's government has sought to build on the current political stability and improved security nationwide to push for reforms and development projects, mainly in public services.
The census will be the first fully electronic one and will gather at least 120,000 workers equipped with tablets, Planning Ministry spokesman Abdul-Zahra Al Hindawi said. The initial results will be announced within 24 hours, while the final figures will be available up to three months later.
Mr Al Hindawi added that a further stage would be held to count Iraqis living outside the country. “Those who live abroad but their families are still inside Iraq and have their IDs, they will be counted, but if the whole family lives abroad they need to wait for the next stage,” he said, without disclosing when that would begin.
The census form includes 70 questions, starting with basic information about family members and moving on to topics including health, education, employment, economic status and disabilities, the minister said. Families will not be asked about their ethnicity or sect but only religion, he added.
Questions on sect and ethnicity have been a major obstacle to conducting a census since 2003. Political parties have now reached an agreement to exclude these subjects. Part of that deal was with the Kurds, who have been at loggerheads with Arabs and other minorities over disputed lands stretching from the Syrian border to Iran that the Kurds claim as part of their autonomous region, including the northern city of Kirkuk, a major oil hub.
Earlier this month, the cabinet decided that census enumerators in the disputed areas would be in teams of mixed sect and ethnicity, made up of Kurds, Arabs and Turkmen. A Christian representative will join teams in Christian-dominated areas. The cabinet also said there must be co-operation between federal and regional authorities, allowing Kurdistan to send a technical team to the central government's Census Operation Room in Baghdad.
Adding to the complexity is the inclusion of millions of internally displaced people, many of whom fled their homes during the war against Isis and subsequent conflicts. The census will record their previous and current residences, aiming to address their needs while integrating them into national planning, Mr Al Hindawi said.
Yazidi journalist and activist in Germany
Minorities question
With the rise of extremism after 2003, minorities in Iraq, particularly Christians and Yazidis, endured targeted killings and kidnappings, forcing many to flee the country.
There is no official data on the number of Christians but community leaders estimate that only about 300,000 remain out of 1.5 million before 2003.
When Isis overran swathes of Iraq in 2014, there were an estimated 500,000 Yazidis in the country. Isis fanatics captured their ancestors’ hometown of Sinjar and surrounding villages, taking thousands of Yazidis captive and slaughtering others. Since then, many have sought shelter abroad, mainly in Europe.
“I’m not against the census, but the rights and uniqueness of minorities in Iraq must be preserved in a way that includes their [real] numbers both inside and outside the country,” said Saman Dawod, a Yazidi journalist and activist who lives in Germany.
Mr Dawod said all Yazidi areas in northern Iraq have faced demographic change since 2003, many of these claimed by the Kurds, including the towns of Sinjar and Sheikhan.
“My hometown Sheikhan has undergone a demographic change due to the dominance of Kurds in the region, transforming it from a pure and old Yazidi area where 90 per cent of the residents were Yazidis, to about 30-40 per cent now,” Mr Dawod added. “You can imagine the extent of the demographic change.”
The biggest fear, he said, is that the census will count displaced Yazidis under Dahuk province in the Kurdish region, where they live in camps, rather than under Nineveh province, a move that would statistically impact their presence in Sinjar and surrounding areas.
“This creates a sense of fear among the Yazidis,” Mr Dawod said. “This will have a significant effect because any change to their number will affect their weight and the number of seats inside parliament.”
Major Christian parties have also called for a census of the minorities in their diaspora “who have fled the sectarian conflicts, massacres and the terrorism of Al Qaeda in Iraq and Daesh”.
“Otherwise, the results will not reflect the true population density of the components from Christians, Yazidis and others,” they said.
