Riyadh hosts Arab and Islamic leaders bracing for uncertain new Trump era

Monday's summit expected to focus on ways to end Israel's wars in Gaza and Lebanon

Live updates: Follow the latest on Israel-Gaza

Arab and Islamic leaders will meet in Riyadh on Monday to discuss regional de-escalation efforts, focusing on the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, amid uncertainties surrounding Donald Trump's presidency which could reshape the Middle East's political landscape.

The summit, initiated by Saudi Arabia, is intended to build on last year’s Arab and Islamic meeting in Riyadh on the same date, boosting efforts led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to bring an end to Israel's wars, which have claimed the lives of tens of thousands of people.

Political sources in the Middle East told The National that while some of the discussion at Monday’s summit is expected to focus on ways to end the devastating conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, its primary focus will be on advancing a common strategy in preparation for a new US administration in January.

“This second summit will take place amid regional conditions that are worse than a year ago, with Gaza reduced to rubble, [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu expanding the war to Lebanon and repeatedly targeting Syria amid heated exchanges with Iran,” said one regional political source.

“It comes just days after Donald Trump's election. This summit is an attempt to draft a road map for Arab and Islamic countries to outline the paths they will follow during Trump's era,” explained the source, who is involved in regional discussions regarding the goals of the summit. US president-elect Donald Trump has said he wants to end the Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah war, but there is often a gap between political rhetoric and reality.

He has expressed strong support for Israel's actions against Hamas in Gaza but said in March the war needed to end quickly. With the conflict since expanding to another front in Lebanon, against Hezbollah, Mr Trump could play a part in speeding up the process, probably at the expense of the Palestinian people, experts say.

Mr Trump's popularity with the Israeli public has given him significant leverage over their leader Benjamin Netanyahu, especially among the Prime Minister's right-wing support base, said Helit Barel. That could place Mr Netanyahu under more pressure to follow the Trump administration's demands over the war.

“Formulating a unified position is crucial, as it remains uncertain whether Trump will allow Netanyahu to continue his wars freely or if he will impose constraints on his options,” affirmed a second regional political source.

Arab-Islamic support

The devastating conflict was sparked by Hamas’s attacks on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, in which 1,200 people were killed and 251 were taken hostage in Gaza. Since then, about 43,400 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s military campaign in Gaza and another 3,000 people in Lebanon, where Israel started a ground campaign last month. World leaders are increasingly calling for a ceasefire in both Gaza and Lebanon, and a hostage release deal, on which the warring parties have so far failed to agree.

Last year’s Arab-Islamic summit achieved its objective of broadening international recognition for the Palestinian state and supporting the two-state solution. This year, however, many Arab and Islamic countries attending, including Saudi Arabia, are chiefly focused on the escalating risks of a widening conflict, which could threaten their own security and stability.

“The escalating violence in the Palestinian and Lebanese territories, including the brutal Israeli aggression, has compelled Arab and Islamic leaders to take urgent action,” Saudi's state news agency SPA reported on Sunday. “Key priorities include halting the aggression, protecting civilians, providing support to the Palestinian and Lebanese people, unifying positions, and exerting pressure on the international community to take decisive steps to end the ongoing attacks and establish lasting peace and stability in the region,” it added.

Last month, Saudi Arabia reaffirmed “its condemnation and denunciation of Israeli crimes and attacks committed against the Palestinian people,” the Saudi Press Agency reported.

“It also condemns Israeli attempts to undermine the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Lebanon.”

Saudi Arabia has repeatedly emphasised that normalisation with Israel remains off the table as long as Israel declines to support the establishment of a Palestinian state.

“Saudi Arabia seeks unified Arab-Islamic support for its stance, a key goal of the second summit. Observers and regional diplomats widely believe that Trump, upon entering the White House, will prioritise a diplomatic achievement from his first term, viewing it as the best path to end regional conflicts,” said the second political source.

The lame-duck period in the US could have consequences for the direct Iran-Israel conflict. Israel launched strikes on ballistic missile manufacturing sites and air defences in Iran last month, in response to a previous attack on its territory. More Iranian retaliation against Israel is expected. “For this reason, the summit must unify its stance on key issues”, the source explained.

“Those key issues include Israel’s ongoing war, likely to continue until Trump’s inauguration on January 20; regional co-operation to contain the conflict during the transition; managing Iranian-Israeli escalations; and preparing to persuade the Trump administration to shift from Biden's approach to the region.”