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Aside from a letter of condolence for the death of Hassan Nasrallah, Syrian President Bashar Al Assad has been silent during Israel's elimination of much of Hezbollah's leadership over the last two months, and its intensified raids on targets linked to the group in Syria.
Hezbollah was founded by Syrian intelligence and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the 1980s. Since a 2011 revolt against the President and the ensuing civil war, the militant group has been instrumental to the survival of the regime in Damascus. It poured personnel into Syria and supervised the formation of auxiliaries supported by Tehran, who captured rebel-held cities and expanded Iran's zone of control in the country.
But the costs of maintaining this relationship may be becoming prohibitively high for Damascus.
In the wake of the success of Israel's campaign to weaken the militant group, Israel has signalled it could be willing to attack the top echelons of Syria's military, possibly including Assad’s brother Maher. He heads the Fourth Mechanised Division, the best-trained and equipped part of the army, which is also seen as the closest unit to Iran.
“There has been too much silence from Damascus,” one Arab diplomat told The National. “The Israelis have been going after the very top of their enemies, and this is bound to worry Bashar."
“It is time for him to pivot” away from Hezbollah and Iran, the diplomat said. However, the prospect of retribution from Tehran along with increased anti-Western ideological fervour in the Syrian political system, including in the mind of the President, may prevent Assad doing so, he added.
In return for Hezbollah's role in defending the regime, boosted by Russian intervention in 2015, the Syrian military has co-operated with the group, and with Iran, reportedly setting up weapons facilities in the country. Israel has mounted thousands of raids on targets in Syria to destroy these facilities, as well as hitting supply lines running from Iran to Syria and on to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The group has also become a partner, together with the Syrian army – and the Fourth Mechanised Division in particular – in a multi-billion-dollar narcotics smuggling ring across Syria’s southern border with Jordan, according to Arab security officials. Both Hezbollah and the authorities in Damascus have denied involvement.
The alliance has stuck, despite a rapprochement with Mr Assad initiated by Arab countries in 2020 that offered financial flows to Damascus if it loosened its links with Hezbollah and stopped the narcotics trade.
Even the US, which toughened sanctions on the regime just before Joe Biden became president four years ago, devised a plan in 2021 to supply the Syrian government with energy produced in Arab countries. Washington abandoned the idea after Iran became a major supporter of Russia's war against Ukraine.
Despite its criticism of Israeli conduct in the Gaza war, Washington has supported the Israeli operations against Hezbollah in both Lebanon and Syria, although the US has taken a back seat in Syria since Russia intervened nine years ago.
Veteran Syrian political commentator Ayman Abdel Nour said the "Syrian regime will co-operate with anyone to save its head", but added it would not overtly turn against Hezbollah or Iran.
Syria is a "complicated and multi-layered" conflict, he explained, and pivoting would carry high risks for the regime. "You will not see Assad make a direct announcement to evict the militias, for example. But at one point, he could ask them to move out under the guise of redeployment, and only if he has guarantees [of protection] from Russia, the US and Turkey."
These three countries, as well as Iran, have carved out sometimes overlapping zones of control in Syria since the civil war began at the end of 2011. The war broke out after the authorities violently suppressed a peaceful protest movement demanding the President's removal.
A European diplomat following the Syrian file said that although Russia has differences with Iran over Syria, the leaders in Moscow do not want Mr Assad to turn against Tehran. The source pointed out that Iran and Syria have increasingly co-operated with Russia against Ukraine. If Mr Assad shows signs of changing course, Iran could replace him with Maher, who would be as determined as the President to "continue the reign of the Assad family".
"If Assad turns against Iran, he might tear the fabric of the regime apart, and even of his own family," the diplomat said. "But if the Israelis become really tough on him, and the Russians also become convinced somehow that he has to go, then he has no other choice."
