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Hezbollah and its allies in Lebanon have been indirectly offered “incentives” by western envoys to ensure that the retaliation to Israel’s assassination of the group’s senior military commander does not lead to a full-scale war, political sources in Beirut said on Friday.
The Iran-backed group chief Hassan Nasrallah warned on Thursday that the red lines crossed by Israel in assassinating Hezbollah's commander Fouad Shukr and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh will usher in a “new phase” of the multifront conflict that will make Israel “weep”.
Mr Shukr and an Iranian military associate were killed in an Israeli strike on a densely populated neighbourhood in Beirut's southern suburbs on Tuesday night. Three women and two children were also killed and dozens injured.
Hours later, Mr Haniyeh was killed in an explosion at his residence in Tehran after attending the inauguration of Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Israel has acknowledged carrying out the drone strike that killed Mr Shukr but not the attack that killed Mr Haniyeh. The means by which the Hamas leader was killed has yet to be established – with some reports suggesting it was a missile strike and others that it was a bomb planted at his residence and detonated remotely.
The two events marked an escalation with major repercussions for the Middle East in general and the Gaza ceasefire talks in particular.
Israel, Iran and Hamas rushed to affirm that they are not seeking a wider war, but the vows of retaliation against Israel suggest that the coming months may have to endure a fiercer cycle of violence in parts of the region.
The region is already experiencing the Israeli war in Gaza, which has escalated into a regional conflict involving states and militant groups from Yemen and Iraq to Lebanon and Syria.
Incentives and commitments
Two Lebanese officials told The National that western mediators, who had contact with the government in Beirut this week, indirectly offered incentives to limit the extent of Hezbollah’s response. They also warned that the situation “might get out of control and expand”, if the group's military response is not carefully calculated.
“Among the incentives hinted at, albeit unofficially, by the mediators was a commitment to help address the issue of Lebanese banks detaining financial deposits and to assist in prosecuting individuals who managed to smuggle large amounts of money out of Lebanon,” said one of the sources.
“Additionally, helping with political concessions was suggested, including the presidential file. There were also ideas to facilitate projects to connect Lebanon to electricity and gas from Jordan and Egypt,” added the source.
Lebanon has long struggled with providing enough power to its people, but the situation has been made worse by an economic crisis that began in 2019 when the system completely collapsed after years of public funds being squandered. It has resulted in more than $70 billion in financial losses and a 95 per cent devaluation of the national currency.
Revelations of embezzlement by officials pushed for calls to prosecute leaders of the Lebanese financial sector, which, after it collapsed, left depositors locked out of their savings.
A return to the Egypt-Jordan pipeline projects – dead in the water for the past two years – would be a boon for energy-hungry Lebanon. The country had initially signed a deal to import 650 million cubic meters from Egypt and Syria in June 2022. A similar deal was agreed upon to import electricity from Jordan through Syria to Lebanon.
The US-facilitated deal would have used a World Bank loan to import gas from Egypt through Syria. Damascus would have distributed part of the shipment internally before then forwarding a smaller quantity of gas to Lebanon through the Arab Gas Pipeline.
But the deal was stalled amid a delay in World Bank financing and fears that it would put the Arab countries involved in breach of US sanctions against Syria.
Lebanon has also been without a president for almost two years after Michel Aoun's mandate expired in October 2022. The deeply divided current parliament has failed 12 times to elect a successor, with competing blocs backing two different candidates. The pro-Hezbollah faction backs Marada leader Suleiman Franjieh, while their opponents support former minister Jihad Azour.
Details of the incentives were confirmed by the second political official.
“Hezbollah is responding by saying that internal disputes and issues cannot be linked to the war with Israel,” said the source.
On tenterhooks
Before Tuesday night's strike on Beirut, the Lebanese capital had been on tenterhooks for days, awaiting Israeli retaliation for a rocket attack on the Syrian Druze town of Majdal Shams in the occupied Golan Heights that killed a dozen children. Israel and the US blamed the attack on Hezbollah, which denied involvement.
Israel said Mr Shukr orchestrated the attack, but Mr Nasrallah again denied Hezbollah was involved, instead accusing Israel of firing an interceptor missile that landed in the town.
“They want us to mitigate our retaliation,” Mr Nasrallah said in his speech on Thursday, adding that “the enemy must await the rage and revenge of the honourable people of this nation”.
The assassinations intensified western calls for de-escalation.
The UK’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Defence Secretary John Healey visited Beirut on Thursday and travelled to Israel on Friday in an effort to calm tensions. In Lebanon, they met Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib.
According to one of the Lebanese officials who talked to The National, messages to the government in Beirut included “Israeli threats”.
“Israel wants new security arrangements complementary to Resolution 1701, demanding that Lebanon evacuate the area south of the Litani River from any military presence, except for the army,” said one of the sources.
“Israel is asking Lebanon and Hezbollah to declare surrender after the attack on Beirut. This won’t happen.”
A European diplomatic source stated that western powers are calling on “both parties to exercise restraint, relying on the existing framework of UN Resolution 1701, while urging them not to harm civilians”.
“It is not a matter of guarantees, but rather a dynamic of high-level consultation efforts,” the source added.
The source described the situation between Lebanon and Israel as an “escalation loop,” but said that a diplomatic solution was still possible.
On Thursday, Israel warned its adversaries they would “pay a very high price” for any “aggression” after the Hezbollah leader's speech. “Israel is at a very high level of preparation for any scenario, both defensive and offensive,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.
“Those who attack us, we will attack in return.”
Israel and Hezbollah last fought a major conflict in 2006, a 34-day war that devastated parts of Beirut, killing about 1,200 people in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and about 160 in Israel, mostly soldiers.
Analysts say both sides are now vastly more equipped in terms of firepower, with Hezbollah thought to possess up to 150,000 rockets and missiles, 10 times its arsenal in 2006. Israel has expanded its air force, in part shown by devastating attacks on Gaza, leaving most of the enclave with a population of 2.3 million in ruins.
