If the old military adage of “the enemy has a vote” was not noted by the Pentagon ahead of time when the US and Israel launched strikes on the Iran, it was readily apparent when the campaign began.
Within hours hundreds of missiles and drones were launched from Iran in a scattergun approach that has now engulfed the Middle East.
Tehran knew it faced an existential threat and, by engaging Gulf states, it hoped that the fallout and damage caused would create a wave of pressure forcing US President Donald Trump to end the air strikes.
What was key in response was resilience and the defences in place around Iran's neighbours in the Arabian Gulf was precision weapons that one analyst said granted the capacity to “hit a bullet with a bullet”.
Thaad booms
But it did have a disconcerting effect on a population not used to the proximity of incoming missiles being engaged by interceptors, causing explosions that sound very close but could actually be 100km away.
The exceptional speed and impact of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence interception system, better known as Thaad, causes a “canyon effect” that can exaggerate its proximity.
But using $12 million interceptors against missiles or drones a fraction of the price was not sustainable and, with Iran also launching hundreds of its now notorious Shahed-136 kamikaze weapons, new tactics were needed.
A “layered defence” came into play, with jet fighters on the outer ring, followed by long-range interceptors and then close-in defences that could range from machine-guns to jamming devices.
The Sting
Early in the week, Ukraine’s skills at dealing with one-way-attack drones – there were 55,000 fired at it by Russia last year – led to Gulf states calling for assistance with the first Kyiv advisers, as well as British military personnel, arriving on Tuesday.
Very soon, Ukraine’s $2,100 drones interceptors, such as the Sting which has taken out 3,000 Russian Shaheds, could be posted to the region.
Other deployments have included more British jets to both Cyprus and Qatar with the RAF’s Typhoons and F-35s shooting down drones, some of which were likely fired from Lebanon or Iraq.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer had also endured Mr Trump’s ire for only belatedly letting the US use the British bases at RAF Fairford and in Diego Garcia.
This move, said retired RAF Air Marshal Sammy Sampson, would quadruple the American firepower by moving B-52 and B-1 Lancer heavy bombers closer to the battlespace with their arms dumps in England and the Indian Ocean on hand.
“Size is about to matter more, and the nature of this air campaign is set to change,” he said.
Shootdowns
Amid the clutter and fog of war there were inevitable “friendly fire” incidents, with three F-15s reportedly shot down by a Kuwaiti pilot and other US aircraft mistakenly targeted.
But Qatar had one of the first air-to-air successes using its Typhoon jets with their highly advanced Meteor missiles to shoot down two Iranian Su-24 bombers.
“In the Meteor you have something that really is world beating and against that type of aircraft, frankly, unless the missile malfunctions there is only going to be one ending,” said Air Marshal Sampson.
He also told The National that the US had been able to deploy its “exquisite” intelligence and surveillance aircraft much closer to the battlefield that would allow “dynamic development of targets”.
This meant that a much more focused operation to take out missile battery commanders or convoys of Basij militia on the move could be enacted.
Iran's tactic to target its neighbours was a pre-planned campaign of “fire and revenge”, said former military intelligence officer Dr Lynette Nusbacher. “In the past, we've seen that when they have had a revenge requirement, Iran has been willing to take it as a capital expenditure.” However, it did not work.
Missile mastery
Like many Gulf countries – and unlike many European ones – the UAE has invested in a tiered air defence system that has been tested almost as much as Israel’s Iron Dome with an interception rate of more than 90 per cent.
In the last week 205 ballistic missiles were detected, with 190 destroyed, 13 into the sea and two landing inside the Emirates. A total of 1,184 drones were also detected with, 1,110 intercepted, and 74 fell within the UAE. Eight cruise missiles have also been destroyed.
It is an astonishing interception rate and, with Iran’s missile stockpile diminishing and its commanders taken out, it appears that the Emirates and its neighbours are becoming masters of the art of air defence.
