The Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged to victory in a German state election on Sunday, initial results showed, putting a far-right party within reach of power for the first time since the Second World War and sparking alarm across Europe.
The anti-migrant party scored its best-ever result in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, amid growing public discontent with Germany's political establishment. The AfD more than doubled its support and finished ahead of the long-governing Christian Democratic Union.
While short of an overall majority, the AfD won 44 per cent of the votes counted so far, delivering a powerful blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz. That would leave the AfD only three seats short of an outright majority in the state legislature.
The AfD is already Germany's most popular party at the national level. It is seeking to secure a foothold for advancing its agenda, which includes heavy restrictions on immigration, restoring ties with Russia, cutting support to Ukraine and quitting the euro.
French government ministers on Monday expressed their worries over the AfD's victory in Saxony-Anhalt.
“It clearly sends out a very, very worrying signal,” French Finance Minister Roland Lescure told RTL radio. “This shows that we face a major challenge in the face of a populist wave which is spreading around the world today and which we must resist.”
Mr Lescure's views echoed similar comments made late on Sunday by France's European Affairs Minister Benjamin Haddad.
“To see the far-right prevail in the German regional election marks a very grave moment for Europe,” Mr Haddad wrote on X. “We must listen with humility to the anger, fears and worries and duly respond to these concerns. But nationalism and xenophobia will never be the answer.”
Poland's Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski on Monday described the result as a disturbing signal.
“It seems they're just a few votes short of an absolute majority, but this is indeed a very worrying sign,” Mr Sikorski told Radio Vox FM.
Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister and Forza Italia leader Antonio Tajani said the outcome was “very bad news”. He described the AfD as “a political force that is antithetical to liberal and western values”. He called for measures to prevent “any populist and fanatical drift that spreads in Europe”.
However, Matteo Salvini, who shares the same role in Italy's coalition government and is the leader of the League Party, said on social media: “Fear? Terror? Danger? No, it’s called democracy. Another Europe is possible.”
Far-right leaders in other European countries welcomed the election as a mandate for change, while US President Donald Trump posted a screenshot of the result without comment on his Truth Social site.
During the campaign, the AfD tapped into growing disillusionment with established parties, which it characterises as tired and out of touch. It offered a range of hardline policies and a nostalgic vision of a return to cleaner and safer streets and taking pride in being German.
It called for migration to be halted, an end to efforts to tackle climate change, and to restore relations with Russia.
“This is the foundation – this is the basis on which the first AfD-led government in Germany will thrive, here in Saxony-Anhalt and then throughout Germany,” the AfD’s lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, told supporters at party headquarters in the state capital Magdeburg.
Mr Siegmund thanked Elon Musk for his “support and for your clear and highly important perspective on the political developments of our time” after the X owner congratulated AfD co-founder Alive Weidel, posting “well done” in German.
Ms Weidel said the party would reach out to potential partners, including disaffected politicians from the CDU, to assemble a government.
However securing a coalition could be difficult, as the rival parties had all ruled out serving with the AfD.
While hard-right parties have gained ground elsewhere in Europe, Germany's Nazi past has contributed to a reluctance among mainstream parties to co-operate with the AfD.
The AfD has dismissed accusations of extremism as scaremongering and an insult to the party's millions of supporters.
Others entering parliament are the CDU with 9.2 per cent, the Greens at 8.9 per cent and the anti-capitalist Left party with 8.6 per cent. BSW, a breakaway party founded by former Left leader Sahra Wagenknecht, also cleared the 5 per cent threshold to win seats, the projection showed.
CDU state premier Sven Schulze said voters had “sent a signal”, though the party has repeatedly said it would not work with the AfD.
“Some say this is a dark day for Saxony-Anhalt,” Mr Schulze told party members. “I say that this is democracy.”
Saxony-Anhalt, which has the lowest GDP per capita of Germany’s 16 states, has a population of around two million. Since Germany reunified, the former East German region has seen its population decline more sharply than any other state, with the number of inhabitants falling by more than a quarter between 1990 and 2024.
During a rush of campaigning before the vote, Mr Siegmund drew thousands of supporters to festival-like events, where they clamoured for autographs and selfies.
Mr Siegmund has said that if he failed to gain the majority needed to lead the state, he would wait out the political chaos that he said would ensue if the CDU formed a government, which he predicted would last “a few months.” The AfD will gain more in the next election, he said. “We can only win.”
Mr Merz has warned that the AfD would send Germany “into the abyss”.
Business leaders have warned of deterring investment. Domestic counter-intelligence has categorised elements of the party as a threat to democratic institutions and placed them under increased surveillance.
