Intense negotiations over the war in Ukraine have reached a “major moment” on the road to a peace deal, Britain’s Defence Secretary John Healey has said, despite warnings this is an “illusion” that Russia will not accept.
After high-level talks involving top US envoys in Berlin, with Ukraine appearing to accept that any deal would mean it could not join Nato, the outcome has been well received in Washington.
US President Donald Trump hailed potential progress from “very long and very good talks” with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the leaders of the UK, France, Germany and Nato. “I think we’re closer now than we have been ever,” he said, speaking at the Oval Office.
This was reflected by Mr Healey on Tuesday who said the discussions had made peace more likely than any point since Russia invaded Ukraine almost four years ago.
“We are at a major moment in this war,” he told fellow defence ministers at a meeting of the Ukraine Contact Group. “The US-led push for peace is advancing, and yesterday in Berlin there were signals of progress in the peace talks, which are further advanced than at any time during this war.”
As part of the “Coalition of the Willing”, Britain was stepping up its preparations for a postwar role with its forces “ready to deploy when peace comes, with troops on the ground and jets in the air”.
But, as he announced a £600 million ($806m) package of air defence weapons, Mr Healey acknowledged that Russia has shown little interest in easing its operations either on the front lines or in attacking Ukraine’s cities. “Our mission is clear cut,” he said. “Support the fight today, secure the peace tomorrow.”
Peace or escalation?
Military and diplomatic analysts have warned that this optimism is likely to be misplaced, with the harsh reality that Russia has little incentive to accept the peace terms and could well intensify the fighting to take more territory and force further concessions.
Orysia Lutsevych, Russia expert at the Chatham House think tank, said the most tangible progress had been the “Europeans aligning positions with Americans”, and that actual peace with Russia was “more an illusion”.
“I would suggest it probably will not be acceptable to Russia,” she added. “We will end up at ground zero again.”
She also cautioned that the intense diplomacy came in parallel with Russia using military pressure as negotiations progress. “The more we negotiate, the more advanced the diplomatic talks become, the bigger the military pressure,” she said.
“This is Russian logic, to exert pressure through the battlefield and the negotiating table at the same time. We should expect more escalation as the talks progress, not the other way around.”
‘Nothing has changed’
A gloomier assessment was put forward by Keir Giles, a senior fellow at Chatham House, who suggested that the flurry of statements about ceasefires and peace support forces were all “hypothetical”, with scant connection to political reality. "The outcome being described is one which Russia has explicitly rejected,” he told The National.
He added that the security guarantees to deter further Russian aggression being discussed in European capitals were not wanted by Moscow. “Russia will only agree to a ceasefire if it is something that can be violated with impunity.”
While Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz has suggested striking a deal before the end of the year is possible, Mr Giles cast doubt on this. “Nothing has changed,” he said. “The only reason Russia will agree to a ceasefire is if it assesses it will get more out of it that way than by continuing the war.”
Keep Washington onside
Former British army intelligence officer Lynette Nusbacher suggested that the diplomacy was more about Europe managing the US relationship than ending the war.
“The US is working very hard to create the illusion that we are so close to getting over the line,” she said. “That all it will take is just a slight adjustment before we’re there.”
She said the reality was that the gaps between Russia and Ukraine's positions were vast. “What they’re fighting over is the continued existence of Ukraine as we understand it,” she said. “For the Ukrainians, that’s not negotiable. And Putin really thinks he’s winning the war so he does not feel he needs to make concessions.”
The key thing for European leaders, and for President Zelenskyy in particular, was to avoid antagonising Washington, and to be constructive in negotiations, particularly towards Mr Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
“It’s important right now for a lot of players to keep the Americans sweet,” she said. “So there’s a sense of putting on a bit of a show.”
False expectations
The problem that the optimistic diplomacy might create, argued Ms Lutsevych, was that it could create false expectations as Russia continues to shape the battlefield and media space.
“Putin has this narrative power over us where he wants the West and Ukrainian people to believe that he can fight indefinitely,” she said. “Nobody can fight indefinitely but if people believe that narrative, it shapes decisions.”
That illusion took a knock on Tuesday after Russia’s deputy foreign minister stated that it would not make any concessions on its maximalist territorial aims in Ukraine. Sergei Ryabkov also dismissed suggestions of an imminent peace deal, and said the Kremlin had not been updated on talks.
