US President Donald Trump has urged the leaders of Ukraine and Russia to show “flexibility” in organising a bilateral meeting to get a peace deal over the line.
The American leader also said the US might provide air power as part of a security guarantee for Ukraine − a significant step forward for Kyiv agreeing to a deal.
But first, President Trump insisted, there must be a meeting between Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to kick-start the peace process, amid concerns that the Russian leader will not agree to a bilateral meeting.
“I hope President Putin is going to be good, and if he’s not, it’s going to be a rough situation,” Mr Trump told Fox News on Tuesday. “I hope that President Zelenskyy will do what he has to do. He has to show some flexibility also.”
In recent days there has been a whirlwind round of diplomacy instigated by Mr Trump, from a summit with Mr Putin in Alaska on Friday followed by talks with Mr Zelenskyy and European leaders in the White House on Monday.
Key now is to organise a face-to-face between the Russian and Ukrainian leaders, followed by a trilateral to include Mr Trump.
But Russia experts have suggested that Mr Putin is highly unlikely to accept a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart.
Mr Putin will “absolutely rule out” a meeting, said Nigel Gould-Davies, a Russia expert at the London-headquartered International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank.
“He has made very clear that Zelenskyy is no longer a legitimate president of Ukraine,” he said, adding that it was a “very smart move by Zelenskyy to get Trump's acceptance” of the bilateral meeting idea.
“Because ultimately, I think his hope will be that when, as I expect, Putin rejects that proposal for such a trilateral meeting, it will once again impress on Trump that it is Putin and no one else who is the obstacle to peace,” said Mr Gould-Davies.
During a phone call with Mr Putin on Monday, Mr Trump urged him to begin making plans for a bilateral summit with Mr Zelensky, that would mark the first time the two leaders have met since Russia’s 2022 invasion.
“I wouldn’t say they are ever going to be best friends … they’re the ones that have to call the shots,” he said.
Mr Trump agreed that if the bilateral went well he would look to follow it up with a trilateral summit.
“We’re going to find out about President Putin in the next couple of weeks − that I can tell you − and we’re going to see where it all goes. It’s possible that he doesn’t want to make a deal,” added the US President.
The German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told reporters in Washington on Monday that the bilateral could happen within two weeks while French President Emmanuel Macron signalled that the trilateral summit could be within three weeks.
Key to any deal will be security guarantees for Ukraine to ensure that Russia does not invade again, as it did so in 2014 and 2022.
Importantly Mr Trump indicated on Tuesday that there would be some form of security assurances, potentially in the form of air support from the US.
“We’re willing to help them with things, especially, probably you could talk about by air, because there’s nobody that has the kind of stuff we have,” he said.
But Michael Carpenter, who was a special assistant to former president Joe Biden, said the only real security guarantee was Nato membership for Ukraine “and obviously, that's anathema to Putin”.
A package of security guarantees is being examined that could build on the work of the so-called “coalition of the willing”, a European group led by the UK and France, potentially including a multinational force.
Mr Carpenter, a senior fellow at IISS, added that if the US agreed “to seize those €300 billion ($350 billion) of frozen Russian assets that would be a game changer, that would provide a real exogenous shock to the Russian economy”.
Mr Trump also made clear that Mr Zelenskyy would have to forfeit his ambitions of retaking Crimea, which Russia illegally seized in 2014.
“Both of those things are impossible,” the US President said, referring to the Crimean Peninsula and Nato membership for Ukraine.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
TOP 5 DRIVERS 2019
1 Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes, 10 wins 387 points
2 Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes, 4 wins, 314 points
3 Max Verstappen, Red Bull, 3 wins, 260 points
4 Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, 2 wins, 249 points
5 Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari, 1 win, 230 points
Abu Dhabi GP weekend schedule
Friday
First practice, 1pm
Second practice, 5pm
Saturday
Final practice, 2pm
Qualifying, 5pm
Sunday
Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (55 laps), 5.10pm
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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