The E3 nations – France, Germany and the UK – are pressing for a resolution against Iran at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for defying demands to rein in its nuclear programme, in a move that may pave the way for further sanctions on the Iranian regime despite the head of the UN watchdog on Wednesday welcoming "a concrete step" by Iran to cap its uranium stockpile.
The IAEA's director general Rafael Grossi on Wednesday said Iran had accepted his request to stop increasing its uranium stockpile to just shy of weapons grade as he pushed back on claims that this offer was conditional on the E3 resolution being scrapped.
"I think this is a concrete step in the right direction," he said of Iran's agreement to cap its uranium enrichment levels at 60 per cent, which an IAEA yardstick deems enough, if enriched further, to create four nuclear weapons. “This is the first time that they are saying, ‘OK, we stop.’”
Discussions between Mr Grossi and Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, took place last week when the Argentinian diplomat travelled to Tehran.
Yet pledges obtained during his visit have not changed the E3's assessment that Iran is consistently failing to comply with its obligations and they now feel compelled to take further action, a representative for Germany's Federal Foreign Office told The National.
"Iran is weakening the global system to which all NPT [non-proliferation of nuclear weapons] members are subject," they said. "The fact that Iran is consistently failing to comply with the obligations arising from the CSA obliges us to act, in order to protect and preserve the international non-proliferation system. As E3, we have therefore, jointly with the US, introduced a corresponding resolution at the upcoming IAEA board of governors meeting in which, among other things, Iran is strongly urged to take the appropriate steps."
In parallel, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot told his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi in a phone call that it is imperative Iran co-operates fully with the IAEA. “The minister reiterated that Iran's nuclear escalation was very worrying and carried major risks of proliferation,” France's Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
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“France, with its German and British partners, is continuing its efforts to return to negotiations with Iran with a view to a diplomatic solution,” it added. Mr Barrot also asked that Iran adopt a “constructive attitude” towards ceasefire talks between Iran-backed Lebanese militia group Hezbollah and Israel. There are hopes a ceasefire deal may soon be reached as US envoy Amos Hochstein visits Beirut.
Tougher stance on Iran
The call between Paris and Tehran came one day after Mr Araghchi “strongly condemned” the decision by the E3 to put forward a resolution against Iran at the IAEA, calling for a comprehensive report into the country's nuclear activities. It is expected to be adopted at this week's quarterly meeting of the IAEA's 35-nation board of governors.
The resolution “contradicts the positive atmosphere created in the interactions between Iran and the agency and will only lead to a more complicated issue”, Mr Araghchi said.
The E3 are the only European nations that were party to a failed 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and world powers known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
Confidential IAEA reports to member states said Iran had offered not to expand its stock of uranium enriched to up to 60 per cent purity, near the 90 per cent of weapons grade, and had made preparations to do that, according to news agency Reuters.
The aim is to pressure Iran to return to the negotiating table to agree on new restrictions on its nuclear activities since the 2015 deal fell apart. Although most of its terms have been broken, the deal's “termination day” on which those stipulations are lifted is next October.
The resolution pushed by the E3 also creates a path to launch the so-called snap-back mechanism which would reactivate international sanctions that had been suspended by the nuclear deal, said Behrooz Bayat, a former external expert at the IAEA and a senior fellow at a Berlin-based think tank, the Centre for Middle East and Global Order. The mechanism, which is a powerful tool in the hands of the E3, will also lift in October.
The resolution itself does not allow for the launch of snapback, but readies public opinion for tougher measures against Iran should it fail to comply with western demands.
“The West doesn't want to let the possibility of snapback from slipping out of its hands – it only has 11 months left of validity,” Dr Bayat told The National. “Legally, snapback can be activated any time but the West needs a political justification to do so by first demonstrating that Iran is not co-operating.”
The IAEA resolution pushed by the E3 could be escalated to the UN Security Council, but this is unlikely because it can be vetoed by Russia and China – similar resolutions adopted this year have not followed this path. The snapback cannot be blocked by a veto.
The resolution may also mean the IAEA must draft a comprehensive report on Iran's nuclear activities. The last time this was done was in 2011, and four years later, the nuclear deal followed, said Dr Bayat. “The West wants to know what is the real situation of [the] nuclear programme of Iran if they want to negotiate or enhance the sanctions, by for example, activating the snapback,” he said.
The increased pressure on Iran from the European countries comes after mounting concern over Iran's role in supporting Russia's war effort against Ukraine. Germany last month also ordered the closure of all general Iranian consulates in response to the execution of an Iranian-German dual citizen on terrorism charges.
Iran has signalled it is open to diplomatic negotiations over its nuclear programme ahead of the return of former president Donald Trump to the White House in January.
During his previous tenure (2017-2021), Mr Trump pushed for aggressive sanctions against Iran, causing it to lose $200 billion in oil revenue. He has vowed to renew his “maximum pressure” campaign when he returns to office.
Iran is all the more open to talks after Mr Trump's re-election, said Ali Fathollah-Nejad, the Centre for Middle East and Global Order's founder and director.
“Iran is on the back foot, given its heavy losses in the region, especially regarding Hezbollah,” Dr Fathollah-Nejad told The National. “It has to look for ways to strike a deal with the US and get some sanctions lifted in return for freezing or even rolling back of the nuclear programme.”
