Europe's divisions over US President Donald Trump's military-backed diplomacy towards Iran and international sovereignty dominated the countdown to Thursday's meeting of the bloc's foreign ministers.
The European Union's 27 countries were inching towards listing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist group at the scheduled summit as more details emerged of the brutal repression of protesters in Iran.
Europe is also monitoring – with apparent alarm – Mr Trump's threats of a "far worse" attack on Iran than during last summer's so-called 12-day war with Israel. The talks come as the EU members try to regroup, having entered a confrontation with Washington over its claims on Greenland as a strategic pillar of US defence.
Risk of escalation
“A military escalation risks having serious repercussions on regional stability and you should give diplomacy a chance,” EU Commission representative Anouar El Anouni said on Wednesday. “We’d exhort all parties state and non state actors to respect international law, show restraint and avoid any actions that could lead to an escalation in the Middle East.”
European diplomats confirmed the continuing IRGC talks while keeping the details scarce. Italy, traditionally hostile to the idea, has recently backed countries that openly push for the listing, including the Netherlands and Germany.
France is believed to oppose the decision that requires unanimous approval. “Things are moving,” a European diplomat said. “We won't get to a decision tomorrow but the brutality what we saw has made ministers and capitals reconsider their positions.”
Those against have shied away from publicly confirming their position. “Potentially labelling a state organisation as a terrorist … is, of course, not something we that the EU do every day,” a second European diplomat said. “There is much sensitivity around that.”
“The tendency clearly going towards maybe considering a listing, but there is no consensus yet and it’s highly sensitive and political,” they added.
French diplomatic sources confirmed told The National that “all options are being discussed, particularly regarding their practical effects”. They are reported to not confirm they oppose the decision but rather question its usefulness.
Spain, which also used to oppose the IRGC listing, appeared to be shifting its position. "Spain supports sanctions on Iran. Including those regarding the IRGC," sources from the Spanish Foreign Ministry said.
Assets frozen
The EU has already listed the IRGC in its entirety under its weapons of mass destruction sanctions regime, meaning it is under an asset freeze and a prohibition for EU citizens to make funds and economic resources available. Individuals and entities linked to the IRGC are also listed for human rights breaches, supporting Russia's war on Ukraine, and Iran's nuclear and ballistic programme.
Listing the IRGC as a terror organisation may shut down all channels of communication with Iran on its nuclear programme, as well as on so-called hostage diplomacy.
Two French citizens were released from Evin prison in November but were not allowed to return to their home country and have been living at the French embassy. Iran is understood to expect a swap with an Iranian translator who was recently on trial in a Paris court for hate speech. Prosecutors have demanded a four-year prison sentence. A verdict is expected on February 26.
A number of European citizens are reported to be remain detained in Iran, including Swedish-Iranian professor Ahmad Reza Jalali who was sentenced to death in 2017. Sweden is among the countries expected to push for the IRGC to be listed by the EU as a terrorist organisation because a majority in the Swedish Parliament supports it.
'Political signal'
What has been confirmed by several diplomats is that the EU's 27 foreign ministers will adopt a new round of sanctions against Iran for human rights breaches in the recent crackdown against protesters believed to reach the tens of thousands.
“We're starting to get an understanding of the scale,” the second diplomat said. “A lot of information is coming out that we did not have with the internet shut down.”
About 21 new sanctions, including 13 against individuals involved in the repression of protests and two in the internet blackout, are to be issued. Four individuals and six entities are also expected to be sanctioned for their role in Iran's support of Russia's war against Ukraine.
Countries that push for listing the IRGC say it would be a very important political signal. “It's a voice of support for a significant part of the Iranian diaspora that have been calling this for a long time,” the first diplomat said. “It's a it's a signal of support to those brave people in Iran that are standing up to a very murderous regime, that indeed the EU is seeing this, and that the EU is taking action upon it within the framework of the instruments that we have.”
Thursday's meeting is scheduled to start with an hour and a half of informal exchange between ministers on geopolitical threats to the EU, including Mr Trump's recent demands to seize Greenland from Danish rule. This has been viewed as a "red line" that should have never been crossed, Italian socialist MEP Brando Benifei told Andrew Puzder, US ambassador to the EU, at a hearing in the European Parliament on Wednesday. "It cannot be that the pressure is harder on Copenhagen than on Moscow."
Mr Puzder declined to answer questions on US foreign policy, saying they should be addressed to his colleague at Nato. Yet he stressed the importance of US-EU relations despite differences on regulatory frameworks, particularly in the tech industry, which has triggered criticism in the past from senior EU officials.
"Our national security strategy has been much maligned," he said, "but if you read in the second paragraph [of Mr Trump’s National Security Strategy document], it says that Europe is strategically and culturally vital to the US and a pillar to our economic prosperity. That well summarises the relationship, and how it should exist, between the EU and the US."
