The spectacular withdrawal of former prime minister Saad Hariri from politics on Monday has left his political party in disarray, with MPs uncertain of their future and fearing growing division just five months away from parliamentary elections.
“We’re a bit lost, let’s see what the next couple of days bring,” MP Sami Fatfat from the Future Movement told The National. “It’s a blow.”
MP Mohammad Hajjar said that he feared that the party’s enemies, including Iran-backed Hezbollah, would gain more ground. “I’m worried about my people and my region. Who could replace me?” he asked. “I think there will be massive abstention among the Sunni population.”
Mr Hariri’s withdrawal creates a void in Lebanese political life, which is governed along complex sectarian lines. The Future Movement, which will not participate in the May 15 parliamentary elections following Mr Hariri’s speech, represented most of the country’s Sunni Muslims.
We might see the disintegration of the country through war or just withering away
Mustafa Allouche,
a former parliamentarian and senior member of the Future Movement party
The post of prime minister is always held by a Sunni Muslim, while the presidency goes to a Maronite Christian, and the Parliament Speaker is a Shiite Muslim.
A three-time prime minister, Mr Hariri is the political heir of his late father Rafik, a billionaire who was assassinated in 2005.
But his businesses have faced turmoil in the past years, starting with the closure of the family construction firm in Saudi Arabia in 2017. He recognised this in his speech on Monday, saying that he had suffered personal financial losses and lost friendships due to political compromises.
Mr Hariri has shown growing frustration with local politics in recent years and announced in July that he had given up trying to form a Cabinet after he was appointed prime minister in October 2020. At the time, he blamed President Michel Aoun, who shifted the blame back on Mr Hariri. He had previously resigned in the face of mass anti-government protests in late 2019.
'We had no impact'
Political infighting has worsened Lebanon’s financial crisis, which has pushed more than three quarters of the population into poverty.
“I cannot stand […] that some Lebanese consider me as a pillar of this regime that is responsible for this catastrophe,” Mr Hariri said in his speech on Monday.
In a tweet, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati described Mr Hariri’s withdrawal as a “sad page” for the country but that he understood his “bitterness”. “The homeland will unite us and moderation is our path,” he said.
Mustafa Allouche, a former parliamentarian and senior member of the Future Movement party, told The National that the Future Movement could not continue being a “Sunni cover” for Hezbollah’s actions, which he blamed for the country's woes. The Shiite Muslim party is allied to President Aoun.
“We had no impact” while in power, he said.
He was unsure of what will come next. “It’ll be a soup of everything,” he said. “Anyone who tries to find a reason to run in the elections and was part of the Future Movement is just a hypocrite now.”
Mr Allouche said that he and Mr Hariri had lost hope in Lebanon’s future. “We might see the disintegration of the country through war or just withering away,” he said.
Though some party members like Mr Hajjar said that Mr Hariri’s withdrawal was temporary, Lebanese political analyst Imad Salamey believes that he has quit for good. He described his move as “both good and bad”.
“It’s natural for political leaders who lose on the ground because of miscalculations or electoral outcomes to give their post to others,” he said.
The Future Movement appeared the main loser in the 2018 legislative elections, when it lost around a third of its seats.
But the party's absence this year may also encourage conflicts because of the nature of Lebanon’s sectarian politics. “There isn’t much alternative among the Sunnis, which will create a power gap and instability,” said Mr Salamey.
“It can add to the sense of deprivation within the Sunni community and that can feed into extremism.”
Former prime minister Tammam Salam, who said last week he would not run in the May elections, wrote on Twitter on Monday that Mr Hariri’s decision reflected “deep political imbalances”.
In what looked like a reference to the Future Movement’s rivals such as Mr Aoun, he added that it could be a lesson “to those who consider themselves victorious today over the remains of the collapsed homeland”.
Why it pays to compare
A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.
Route 1: bank transfer
The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.
Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount
Total received: €4,670.30
Route 2: online platform
The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.
Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction
Total received: €4,756
The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.
A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
- 2018: Formal work begins
- November 2021: First 17 volumes launched
- November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
- October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
- November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
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The specs: 2018 BMW R nineT Scrambler
Price, base / as tested Dh57,000
Engine 1,170cc air/oil-cooled flat twin four-stroke engine
Transmission Six-speed gearbox
Power 110hp) @ 7,750rpm
Torque 116Nm @ 6,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 5.3L / 100km
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less