Gulf nations ponder Iran’s new intentions

Has Iran realised its mistakes, which is prompting it to reconsider decades of antagonistic policies, or is the charm offensive led by President Hassan Rouhani just a ploy to ease sanctions?

While the latest friendly overtures emerging from Iran are undoubtedly welcome, they pose a difficult question for the foreign ministries of the Gulf states: what exactly are Iran’s intentions? Has there been an epiphany on the part of the Islamic Republic’s leaders that is causing them to reconsider decades of antagonistic policies, or is the charm offensive led by President Hassan Rouhani merely a short-term ploy to ease sanctions?

Perhaps only Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, can supply the real answer to that. In the meantime, the response of the UAE, along with its allies in the region, is rightly one of cautious optimism. If, after more than 30 years of the Islamic revolution, Iran has finally acknowledged that its interests are best served by being on friendly relations with it neighbours, then we can all benefit. Peace and stability will allow trade to prosper to the benefit of all – particularly the people of Iran, who are in dire need of a little prosperity right now.

Yet it is wise to wonder if Iran’s overtures are less than they seem. President Rouhani may now be an enthusiastic proponent of rapprochement, but has Mr Khamenei really changed so dramatically so suddenly? And what about the clerics? Or the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution, the so-called Revolutionary Guards? These hardliners control large sectors of the Iranian economy: are they really now putting their commercial interests ahead of their fundamentalist principles?

The interim nuclear accords which began this whole process are supposed to continue for six months while more discussions take place. It could well take until the middle of next year before a clearer picture of what is happening inside Iran begins to emerge.

While we wait and watch, the UAE is right to continue with its principle of attempting to be on the best possible relations with all its neighbours. The proposed visits to Iran by the President, Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed, and the Vice-President, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, are powerful indicators of that.

The sanctions imposed in response to Iran’s nuclear programme bit deeply into trade between the UAE – particularly Dubai – and Iran. In 2011, it was estimated at more than $11.5 billion (Dh42.2) – and this at a time when relations were already poor. If sanctions were to be lifted and Iran decided to re-integrate itself into the world – and the Gulf – the benefits for the UAE would be manifold.