The development of Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computers (CRQCs) capable of breaking just about any encryption might be "catastrophic" to the US economy and security, a new federal report says.
The recently released analysis from the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) echoes concerns from technology and cyber security experts in recent years about a hypothetical scenario known as “Q-Day", in which quantum computers fall into the wrong hands and are used to crack billions of passwords and break down other encryption methods, resulting in a wave of financial crimes.
Conventional computers process data in bits and have a binary value of zero or one, whereas quantum computers can process digits simultaneously using a two-state unit called a qubit. What that means is that data crunching for research can now be done in a fraction of the time, potentially yielding new breakthroughs in science and medical research.
Unfortunately, as the report points out, it also could have tremendous ramifications for cyber security.
The non-partisan federal watchdog said that it recently made 89 recommendations to more than 20 federal agencies to develop inventories of potentially vulnerable cryptography that would help in identifying funding for "post-quantum cryptography." It published only the broad recommendations that it had conveyed to officials, and details of the others are unknown.
"We have omitted the original agency comment letters reprinted in the sensitive report due to sensitivity concerns," it said.
Though 12 government agencies agreed with the GAO's recommendations, one agency disagreed with several of them, and the US Department of the Interior failed to provide a response.
"We continue to believe that all of the recommendations made in the sensitive report are warranted," the GAO's analysis explained.
Though the GAO's evaluation about US government preparedness for CRQCs makes for sobering reading, it did point out a silver lining.
"Experts say that the probability that a CRQC will be built in the next 10 years is low," the GAO report reads, though it adds that there's a significant risk that bad actors, governments or organisations might be harvesting large amounts of encrypted data right now, and are simply waiting for CRQCs to become available to decrypt it.
"The loss of even a small amount of important sensitive information could have a severe effect on federal operations."
The World Economic Forum touched on worries related to quantum computers in its Top 10 Emerging Technologies Report for 2026. It listed lattice-based cryptography as being among the more important technologies.
Lattice-based cryptography is based on the idea of preserving encrypted data on computers and devices by relying on a series of mathematical problems consisting of complicated grids, also known as lattices, that are impossible for even quantum computers to solve.
