El Sisi visit is clever politics for Putin

Russia's leader has consistently managed to stay one step ahead of the West

In any race, standing still while others keep moving is a certain formula for defeat. That applies as much to sporting competitions as political rivalries. And it is, unfortunately, what the United States has been doing in the Middle East during the presidency of Barack Obama. In the meantime Russia, which is currently showcasing its sporting prowess at the Winter Olympics in Sochi, is also demonstrating its diplomatic showmanship by hosting Abdel Fattah El Sisi, Egypt’s apparent president-in-waiting, in Moscow and endorsing him as Egypt’s leader.

Warming relations between Egypt and Russia are good for both sides. The deal Mr El Sisi discussed in Moscow could mean military hardware worth as much as US$2bn (Dh7.3bn) flowing into Egypt. That doesn’t mean that Mr El Sisi is taking Egypt back into Russia’s orbit, but rather that Egypt is seeking to diversify its alliances, especially after the United States blew lukewarm on the decision to remove the Islamist leader Mohammed Morsi and briefly froze military aid to Cairo.

Similarly with Russia. The country’s most important Arab ally is Syria – it is the Russian naval base at Tartus, on Syria’s Mediterranean coast, that is the prize that Vladimir Putin is fighting for. Tartus is Russia’s only naval base outside the countries of the former Soviet Union and is thus enormously important for the country’s projection of its military power.

It is that raw calculation that has driven Mr Putin’s backing of the regime in Syria, resupplying the armies of Bashar Al Assad, even as he lays waste to his own cities and slaughters his own people.

But Mr Putin has not remained Russia’s leader for so long without incredible calculation, and he must recognise that the possibility of Mr Al Assad falling is real. By creating a relationship with Egypt during this transitional period, he, too, creates future alliances.

Mr Putin’s decision to openly endorse Mr El Sisi, even before he has formally declared his candidature, as well as negotiating a large arms deal with him, was canny politics.

It is another demonstration that Mr Putin is one step ahead of the West: he has outmanoeuvred the Americans on Syria, over the Edward Snowden affair, and has now comprehensively outflanked them over Egypt’s future.