Covid-19 travel curbs don't work, says air industry study

Omicron restrictions had little effect on slowing its spread, say researchers

Passenger numbers at London's Heathrow Airport were well down in 2021 compared to before the pandemic. PA
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Travel restrictions did little to slow the Omicron variant, says research published by two air industry bodies as airlines lobby for testing requirements to be abandoned for vaccinated people.

The travel industry is wary of new variants such as Omicron prompting new rounds of restrictions that delays its recovery further after almost two years of constrained international travel.

Countries such as the UK and France justified restrictions by saying they hoped to keep Omicron out of their territory, or at least slow its arrival from other countries.

But a 39-page report by consultants Oxera and Edge Health, commissioned by the International Air Transport Association and the Airports Council International Europe, casts doubt on whether the measures helped.

In Italy, one of its two case studies, researchers said Omicron was likely to have been spreading for at least six weeks before restrictions were introduced — suggesting it was too late to close the door to the variant.

Even if the measures had been brought in sooner, the peak of the Omicron wave would have been put off by only three days compared to doing nothing, modellers say.

Conrad Clifford, IATA’s deputy director general, said travel curbs were a “classic case of closing the stable door after the horse has bolted”.

“Keeping testing in place for vaccinated passengers, therefore, seems completely ineffective from the health point of view,” he said.

Other studies have given a mixed picture, with scientists suggesting restrictions could delay the spread in countries with low infection rates but that imported coronavirus cases would never account for a large share of the epidemic in one country.

The air industry’s report also looked at Finland, which moved to bring in mandatory pre-departure tests in late December.

But modelled infection numbers with and without these measures were “indistinguishable, suggesting that introducing travel restrictions on December 28 was ineffective”, they said.

If all restrictions had been lifted on January 1, the increase in cases would have been less than a quarter of a percentage point in both Italy and Finland, says the report.

'More harm than good'

Olivier Jankovec, the head of the airports group, said restrictions were “causing more harm than good” by damaging the economy.

At Heathrow Airport, the busiest in the UK, international flights dropped by more than a million in 2021 compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Figures released this week in Germany showed traffic well down on 2019, with long-haul travel down 75 per cent and barely up on 2020.

“We now have proof travel restrictions do have a significant effect — but it’s not on public health, it’s on economic stability and livelihoods,” said Mr Jankovec.

The World Health Organisation said after Omicron emerged that blanket bans would not prevent the variant spreading internationally.

It said they could hinder public health efforts by discouraging countries from reporting a concerning new variant within their borders.

The air industry is calling on EU countries to carry out the European Council’s recommendation that vaccinated people should not be subject to further restrictions.

Non-EU member Britain is also moving in this direction, with tests set to be scrapped for vaccinated people arriving in England from February 11.

But within the 27-member union, common EU policy “has so far not prevented states from going their own way”, said Mr Jankovec. “This must stop.”

Updated: February 02, 2022, 9:04 AM