Deep within the Willcox Basin in south-eastern Arizona near the US-Mexico border, a long-term drought and a surge in agricultural irrigation has ignited a groundwater crisis that threatens the very essence of life in this tranquil and remote rural sanctuary.
As the Colorado River dries up, a considerable portion of the aquifers that have historically supplied almost 40 per cent of Arizona's vital water resources – and played an indispensable role in transforming its vast landscapes into some of the world's most fertile farmland – are now facing depletion that may require centuries or even millennia to recharge.
Water scarcity is a growing concern in drier parts of the world and this year's Cop28 in Dubai will have a day dedicated to discussing this issue.
The Willcox Basin is completely reliant on groundwater, yet no measures have been taken to curb its depletion.
For one resident who made the move from Phoenix in 1998, the shift has been striking.
“There was actually a lot less water being pumped out of the ground back in 1998, about half as much as there is right now. It's grown considerably, almost 90 per cent, since we bought here,” said Steve Kisiel, underscoring that most of the changes unfolded over the past two decades.
“There is no way to get that back.”
Mr Kisiel lives in a part of Arizona where about 1.5 million people rely primarily on groundwater.
“We've been in a long-term drought here in south-east Arizona. And with the drought we've had a lot less rainfall, a lot less recharge. So that's made the situation worse,” he explained.
He wants the state to regulate the use of groundwater.
Water levels have been receding at an alarming rate, with some areas experiencing annual drops of up to 3 metres, he explained. By draining aquifers, the basin risks losing access to that water in the future when they might need it even more.
Residents now grapple with the daunting choice of drilling deeper wells or relying on water imported from distant sources, Mr Kisiel explained. Both options come with substantial costs.
Mr Kisiel deepened his well to a depth of about 180 metres and extended it by another 60 metres at a cost of $15,000. Throughout this process, he discovered that the water level in his well had been steadily declining at an annual rate of 1.8 metres.
Vance Williams is among a growing number of residents who have seen their wells run dry in recent years. His water supply dried up when a massive dairy farm from Minnesota was established about 10km down the road.
An Iraq war veteran, Mr Williams found himself relying on 20-litre water containers purchased from the local grocery store for a year.
He, along with many others, is worried about going into debt trying to get running water. He is also concerned that the value of his property is declining and that he will not be able to pass it down to his daughter.
Mr Williams considered redrilling his well, but at almost $50,000, he could not afford it, especially as it will only need to be expanded over time as water levels drop.
“Its shocking … I used all my savings to purchase a house … you to plan to live there for the rest of your life and suddenly you find there's no water,” he said.
“Luckily, I own my house … unluckily, the water is gonna run out.”
Kristine Uhlman, a former hydrologist at the University of Arizona, believes the dairy farm installed at least 20 wells between 300 metres to 600 metres deep.
“And they're essentially taking this fresh water from the bottom, she said.
“So it's like if you have, you know, a soda and you put a straw and you drink the soda from the bottom of the cup – the water level is going to draw down, down, down, down until you hit the bottom.”
According to a report published by the Arizona Department of Water Reserves, before agricultural pumping began around 1940, Willcox had enough water to supply Tucson, the nearest major city, for up to 900 years.
In some of Arizona’s rural areas, there are currently no regulations governing the amount of water that megafarms can extract, effectively establishing a monopoly over the region's aquifers.
All of this happens beyond the purview of the state, which does not have the authority to track how much water each well is pumping.
Kathleen Ferris, a former state water official and one of the architects of Arizona’s landmark 1980 groundwater management law, told The National that anyone can drill a well and pump as much groundwater as they want.
“Corporate megafarms have moved into many rural groundwater basins over the last 10 years, cultivating vast amounts of land. They do it because they can,” she said.
It's the “Wild West”, Ms Uhlman added. “The situation is horrible. It could not be worse.”
She likened groundwater to a “savings account” for those who live in the desert – and if groundwater is Arizona’s savings account, corporate farms from around the world are making huge withdrawals that have been impossible to replenish.
During her tenure at the University of Arizona, she conducted groundwater sampling across various basins in Arizona, with the goal of determining the last time the water had come into contact with the atmosphere.
The results revealed that the average age of groundwater was about 10,000 years old, indicating that it had not been recharged since the time when mammoths roamed the landscape, explained Ms Uhlman.
“In 20 years, there might not be anybody left there [in Willcox Basin], except the deep corporate agricultural companies that are pumping all that beautiful fresh water without consideration for their neighbours.”
Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
Financial considerations before buying a property
Buyers should try to pay as much in cash as possible for a property, limiting the mortgage value to as little as they can afford. This means they not only pay less in interest but their monthly costs are also reduced. Ideally, the monthly mortgage payment should not exceed 20 per cent of the purchaser’s total household income, says Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching.
“If it’s a rental property, plan for the property to have periods when it does not have a tenant. Ensure you have enough cash set aside to pay the mortgage and other costs during these periods, ideally at least six months,” she says.
Also, shop around for the best mortgage interest rate. Understand the terms and conditions, especially what happens after any introductory periods, Ms Glynn adds.
Using a good mortgage broker is worth the investment to obtain the best rate available for a buyer’s needs and circumstances. A good mortgage broker will help the buyer understand the terms and conditions of the mortgage and make the purchasing process efficient and easier.
RESULTS
6.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 82,500 (Dirt) 1.600m
Winner: Miller’s House, Richard Mullen (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer).
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Kanood, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass.
7.50pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Gervais, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
8.15pm: The Garhoud Sprint Listed (TB) Dh 132,500 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Important Mission, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
8.50pm: The Entisar Listed (TB) Dh 132,500 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Firnas, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer.
9.25pm: Conditions (TB) Dh 120,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Zhou Storm, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
'The Woman in the House Across the Street from the Girl in the Window'
Director:Michael Lehmann
Stars:Kristen Bell
Rating: 1/5
The specs
Price, base / as tested Dh135,000
Engine 1.6L turbo
Gearbox Six speed automatic with manual and sports mode
Power 165hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 240Nm @ 1,400rpm 0-100kph: 9.2 seconds
Top speed 420 kph (governed)
Fuel economy, combined 35.2L / 100km (est)
How has net migration to UK changed?
The figure was broadly flat immediately before the Covid-19 pandemic, standing at 216,000 in the year to June 2018 and 224,000 in the year to June 2019.
It then dropped to an estimated 111,000 in the year to June 2020 when restrictions introduced during the pandemic limited travel and movement.
The total rose to 254,000 in the year to June 2021, followed by steep jumps to 634,000 in the year to June 2022 and 906,000 in the year to June 2023.
The latest available figure of 728,000 for the 12 months to June 2024 suggests levels are starting to decrease.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
