2024 'virtually certain' to be hottest on record as temperature streak continues

Last month was second-hottest October on record after October 2023

This year is “virtually certain” to be the warmest year on record, as the world continues its unprecedented temperature streak, the European Union's climate change monitoring service has said. Last month was the second-hottest October on record after October 2023, with an average surface air temperature for the month of 15.25°C, 0.80°C above the 1991-2020 average.

The figure also represented the 15th month in a 16-month period for which the global-average surface air temperature exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The average temperature for the rest of the year would have to drop to almost zero if 2024 was not to become the warmest year on record. It is highly likely that the annual temperature for 2024 will be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level.

"After 10 months of 2024 it is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and the first year of more than 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels, according to the ERA5 data set,” said Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). “This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming Climate Change Conference, Cop29."

Under the Paris Agreement, countries committed to keeping global temperatures below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with a limit of 1.5°C the aim. Scientists have warned that exceeding 1.5°C could cause severe climate effects, with every fraction of a degree being critical.

European temperatures were above average over almost all of the continent. Other countries where it was hotter than average included Canada, the central and western United States, northern Tibet, Japan and Australia. They were “most notably below average” over central Greenland and Iceland, according to the EU’s climate change agency.

The average sea surface temperature in some areas was also higher than normal, but below average in the equatorial eastern and central Pacific, indicating a move towards La Niña conditions. Arctic sea ice was the fourth-lowest on record, at 19 per cent below average, while Antarctic sea ice extent was the second-lowest for the month, at 8 per cent below average.

The month also saw above-average rainfall across the Iberian Peninsula, France, northern Italy, Norway, northern Sweden, and east of the Black Sea. Torrential rains led to severe flash flooding in the region of Valencia, Spain, with more than 200 deaths.

Wetter-than-average conditions were also seen in southern and eastern China, Taiwan, Florida, parts of Western Australia, and the southernmost parts of Brazil. But in some areas rainfall was below average, including across most of eastern Europe, western Russia, Greece, and western Turkey.

A recent study found that climate change is posing record threats to human health, including a rise in sand and dust storms and changing rain patterns that put more people at risk of deadly mosquito-borne diseases like dengue. Every country now faces threats to health and survival due to global warming, according to an annual stocktake study in The Lancet, which found 10 of 15 indicators monitoring health hazards have now reached record levels.