Continued weakness in the Abu Dhabi economy is forcing more property investors to become “accidental landlords”, as they are unable to sell units that are nearing completion at a profit, according to a new report by Cluttons.
These investors’ willingness to offer more flexible terms to potential tenants to secure income is also placing pressure on rents in an already weak market, says the property company’s Spring Abu Dhabi Property Market Outlook.
It said that capital values in investment areas dropped by 1.9 per cent in the first quarter of this year, meaning the year-on-year decline in values was 7.6 per cent, compared with a 6 per cent year-on-year decline recorded at the end of 2016.
Cluttons said that weak economic conditions, rising inflation and high costs of living are curbing demand in residential and commercial markets, with the steepest declines in the luxury market.
It said that for landlords who had purchased off-plan homes that are now being completed in developments at places such as Reem Island, “the inability to achieve desired sale prices is prompting vendors to enter the rental market to generate cash flows”.
“These ‘accidental’ landlords are competing for a limited pool of tenants and this is hampering the rental market’s ability to register any meaningful growth.”
Average rents are now 15 per cent lower year-on-year.
Edward Carnegy, the head of Cluttons Abu Dhabi, said: “Anecdotal evidence shows that organisations continue to trim senior-level executive positions, which are a key source of requirements for high-end homes. In other cases, companies are removing housing allowances to cope with the financial pressures, which is making it harder for potential buyers to purchase a property.”
Faisal Durrani, the head of research at Cluttons, said that the decline in demand for luxury accommodation was not unique to Abu Dhabi and that a similar trend could be identified in many international markets whose economies are influenced by oil prices.
He said that more trimming of employment is likely, with even sectors that have been identified as growth prospects for economic diversification affected, such as aviation.
Supply in submarkets such as Reem Island is also predicted to increase, leading to further anticipated falls in rents and prices. Cluttons is predicting that average rents will end this year between 5 and 7 per cent lower than 2016, while capital values will fall by 8 to 10 per cent.
Despite this, Mr Durrani said there are still opportunities for developers to create the right type of product – especially affordable homes in investment zones.
“We were saying three years ago when the market was at its previous peak that there wasn’t enough affordable space, and demand for affordable homes is now stronger than it has ever been.”
According to Cavendish Maxwell, rents for apartments and villas in investment zones continued to decline in this year’s first quarter and drops were most pronounced at Al Raha Beach and Al Raha Gardens; rents for four-bed villas at Al Raha Gardens also fell by 3.3 per cent.
Manika Dhama, a senior consultant at Cavendish Maxwell, said: “Larger units are facing occupancy pressure from weakened demand as job insecurity continues in the emirate, especially for senior-level executives.”
The company said that 1,200 new homes were completed in investment zones in the first quarter and a further 7,800 units are scheduled for completion by the end of the year.
mfahy@thenational.ae
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A meeting of young minds
The 3,494 entries for the 2019 Sharjah Children Biennial come from:
435 – UAE
2,000 – China
808 – United Kingdom
165 – Argentina
38 – Lebanon
16 – Saudi Arabia
16 – Bangladesh
6 – Ireland
3 – Egypt
3 – France
2 – Sudan
1 – Kuwait
1 – Australia
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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We weren’t supposed to survive but we did.
We weren’t supposed to remember but we did.
We weren’t supposed to write but we did.
We weren’t supposed to fight but we did.
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We weren’t supposed to find allies but we did.
We weren’t supposed to grow communities but we did.
We weren’t supposed to return but WE ARE.
Amira Sakalla
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Al Amerat, Muscat
Results
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UAE beat Namibia by eight runs
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Wednesday January 8 –Oman v Namibia
Thursday January 9 – Oman v UAE
Saturday January 11 – UAE v Namibia
Sunday January 12 – Oman v Namibia
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KEY%20DATES%20IN%20AMAZON'S%20HISTORY
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Scores
New Zealand 266 for 9 in 50 overs
Pakistan 219 all out in 47.2 overs
New Zealand win by 47 runs
Results:
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m | Winner: Eghel De Pine, Pat Cosgrave (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer)
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m | Winner: AF Sheaar, Szczepan Mazur, Saeed Al Shamsi
6pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan National Day Cup (PA) Group 3 Dh500,000 1,600m | Winner: RB Torch, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
6.30pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan National Day Cup (TB) Listed Dh380,000 1,600m | Winner: Forjatt, Chris Hayes, Nicholas Bachalard
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup for Private Owners Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 1,400m | Winner: Hawafez, Connor Beasley, Ridha ben Attia
7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 80,000 1,600m | Winner: Qader, Richard Mullen, Jean de Roaulle
The biog
Job: Fitness entrepreneur, body-builder and trainer
Favourite superhero: Batman
Favourite quote: We must become the change we want to see, by Mahatma Gandhi.
Favourite car: Lamborghini