Saudi Arabia construction spending forecast to fall by 20 per cent


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Saudi Arabia’s government is expected to spend US$29.9 billion on construction projects in 2016 and the same amount again in 2017, despite the global oil price slump, experts are predicting.

According to the cost consultant Faithful + Gould (F+G), the state construction budget for this year is 20 per cent lower than last year’s budget, reflecting the 65 per cent collapse in the price of Nrent crude since its summer 2014 highs of around $115 per barrel.

F+G said that the revisions had been made as the government cut back on spending in an attempt to shore up public finances.

It said the kingdom’s lower budget of $229bn for this year will result in “a large number of projects either being scaled down and revised or put on hold indefinitely”.

F+G predicted that construction sector spending would return to their previous levels in 2018. “[Although the new budgets] reflect a new and cautious attitude towards spending,” said David Clifton, the regional business development director of F+G, “they reaffirm the kingdom’s commitment to its growth and development”.

Mr Clifton added, “Concurrently the country has initiated efforts to develop different funding models that go beyond the country’s historical reliance on oil revenues such as PPP to supplement its still considerable spend. ”

Public private partnership (PPP) financing was used to fund the development of Medina airport last year and plans to use a similar funding model to build Taif airport are currently in tender.

Speaking at a professional development seminar in association with the Saudi Council of Engineers, Mr Clifton said that more than 30 per cent of the country’s workforce is employed in the infrastructure and construction sectors.

lbarnard@thenational.ae

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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