Dubai property market activity is continuing despite regional conflict, although some segments could see an impact, according to analysts.
The emirate recorded 3,570 sales transactions between March 2 and 9, with a total value of Dh11.93 billion ($3.24 billion), according to Dubai Land Department data. The value of transactions has risen over the last three days.
Activity is continuing in both the secondary and off-plan segments, Lewis Allsopp, chairman at Allsopp & Allsopp told The National.
“What we’re seeing in the secondary market right now is stability, not panic,” Mr Allsopp said.
“I’ve been studying the data closely for the last ten days, and what’s particularly encouraging is that the last three days have shown a 75 per cent increase in viewing activity compared to the first three days of the regional unrest – a clear sign that buyer and tenant confidence is returning.”
Buyers are also signing off-plan agreements and not moving away from commitments they made before the war, according to Allsopp & Allsopp.
“We’re not seeing people walk away from commitments they made. My expectation is that developers may look creatively at payment plans to maintain momentum, but I’d be very surprised to see any movement on price per square foot. The underlying values are holding.”
Tehran fired missiles and drones at the UAE after US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, resulting in four deaths and damage to civilian infrastructure. Most of the missiles and drones were intercepted by the UAE.
President Sheikh Mohamed and Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, have pledged that the UAE has the “determination and capability” to overcome all challenges in the face of sustained Iranian attacks. The leaders said the Emirates remained a haven of safety and stability.
“Dubai has navigated many global events and market cycles over the past four decades,” Louis Harding, chief executive of Betterhomes, said.
“We’re seeing people understandably take more time before making decisions, but the interest is still there. Buyers, sellers, tenants, and landlords are watching the market closely and considering their next steps.”
The brokerage company said inquiry levels are about 45 per cent below typical levels amid the current geopolitical tension.
Dubai's property market has been booming in recent years thanks to government initiatives on residence visas, economic growth and the influx of wealthy individuals to the UAE.
The volume and value of property transactions in Dubai hit a record last year amid the entry of nearly 130,000 new investors, government data showed.
The number of transactions reached more than 270,000, up 20 per cent on 2024, while the aggregate value of those deals rose 20 per cent annually to Dh917 billion, according to DLD data.
One segment that could face an impact from a prolonged war is luxury real estate, S&P Global Ratings in a report on Tuesday.
The luxury segment could be hit as high net worth individuals and foreign investors reassess their investments and safe haven status, it said.
“The longer the conflict persists, the more pronounced the declines are expected to be especially for smaller and less established developers,” it added.
Meanwhile, property stocks in Dubai have also dropped in recent days. The Dubai real estate index just had one of its worst weeks in history, shedding more than 15 per cent in a single week after the Iran war, according to Trading View.
The index, which had delivered 180 per cent returns since October 2023, has now wiped out all of its 2026 gains following recent developments.
Strong fundamentals
“While short term market sentiments may occasionally be influenced by regional or global developments, such impacts are temporary,” Farooq Syed, chief executive of Springfield Properties, said.
“Dubai’s long term fundamentals remain intact, supported by sustained infrastructure investment, the expansion of integrated master planned communities and flexible developer payment structures that continue to support transaction activity, particularly within the off-plan segment.”
Among customers showing interest in buying property since the war started include Emirati investors, long-term Gulf buyers, and established resident purchasers.
“In particular, some investors are closely monitoring units where sellers may face payment plan pressure, overleveraged positions, or reconsidered commitments driven by global uncertainty. Historically, such conditions tend to accelerate strategic acquisition activity rather than suppress it,” Mr Syed said.
The Dubai property market's resilience is backed by “strong banking liquidity, institutional crisis management capabilities, a diversified economic base, long-term urban development planning and sustained international investor confidence”, added Mohammad Jaafari, primary and operations director at Provident Estate.
