As we enter the final quarter of 2021, it is a good time to look back on how the region’s economies have performed so far compared with our expectations at the start of the year and also to recalibrate our outlook for next year.
The UAE has yet to release official gross domestic product statistics for the first and second quarters of this year, but the PMI survey data suggests that the non-oil sectors have continued their gradual recovery following last year’s Covid-related contraction. Companies have generally reported increased activity on a monthly basis and domestic demand appears to be strengthening.
Although global travel restrictions have continued to weigh down the tourism sector, the outlook for the fourth quarter is brighter here as well.
Emirates NBD expects the UAE’s non-oil sector to expand in line with our forecast of 3.5 per cent at the start of this year.
However, the decision by Opec+ to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per day every month from August means that the oil sector contraction we had pencilled in at the start of this year for the UAE will be less severe.
Overall, the country's headline GDP growth is likely to be in the region of 2 per cent in 2021, following a 6.1 per cent contraction last year.
In Saudi Arabia, data for the first half of 2021 shows that the non-oil sectors have recovered faster than we had expected. With consumer spending growing by about 10 per cent in the first seven months of this year (compared with the same period in 2020) and private sector credit growth remaining robust, we think the non-oil sectors in the kingdom will grow by 5 per cent in 2021, faster than we had forecast at the start of this year.
On the oil and gas front, we expect Saudi Arabia’s crude production will rise to 10 million bpd by the end of this year, from 9.4m bpd at the end of July. For the year as a whole, we think oil and gas GDP will only contract by 1 per cent in 2021, much less than we had previously anticipated.
The UAE’s headline GDP growth is likely to be in the region of 2 per cent in 2021, following a 6.1 per cent contraction last year
Khatija Haque,
chief economist and head of research, Emirates NBD
As a result, headline GDP growth in the kingdom is likely to reach 2.5 per cent this year from -4.1 per cent in 2020 and almost double the growth rate we had forecast in the first quarter of 2021.
The outlook for next year will also be affected by the Opec+ agreement to unwind the Covid-related production cuts and to increase members’ baseline production levels from which future adjustments will be calculated.
While we believe the market can absorb an extra 400,000bpd of oil every month through the end of this year, if this pace of increased output is maintained through 2022, all of the pandemic related cuts would be unwound by the end of the third quarter.
It would also mean double-digit growth in crude oil production for major GCC oil exporters and thus sharply higher headline GDP growth in 2022.
However, the oil market balance would return to surplus by the second half of next year in this scenario. This might exert downward pressure on oil prices, based on current demand projections. The question then is whether Opec+ will continue to increase production at the current rate if it means accepting a lower oil price.
Budget deficits in the region have narrowed this year but break-even oil prices for the GCC countries is likely to remain above our expectation of $65 per barrel in 2022 based on our forecasts for government spending next year, except the UAE where we estimate a budget breakeven oil price of $61 per barrel next year.
As a result, we expect Opec+ to curb production growth next year to keep the market closer to balance and support oil prices in the $60-70 per barrel range.
For the UAE, we think the oil and gas sector will grow by 6 per cent in 2022, while non-oil sector growth should accelerate to 4 per cent. This should see headline GDP growth rise to 4.6 per cent next year.
In Saudi Arabia, we expect oil and gas GDP to grow 8.5 per cent in 2022, while non-oil growth is also forecast at 4 per cent.
Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain will similarly benefit from higher oil production next year.
For the GCC as a whole, we expect real GDP growth will accelerate to 5.1 per cent in 2022 from an estimated 2.3 per cent this year. If this is achieved, that would be the fastest regional growth in almost a decade.
Khatija Haque is the chief economist and head of research at Emirates NBD
WHAT FANS WILL LOVE ABOUT RUSSIA
FANS WILL LOVE
Uber is ridiculously cheap and, as Diego Saez discovered, mush safer. A 45-minute taxi from Pulova airport to Saint Petersburg’s Nevsky Prospect can cost as little as 500 roubles (Dh30).
FANS WILL LOATHE
Uber policy in Russia is that they can start the fare as soon as they arrive at the pick-up point — and oftentimes they start it even before arriving, or worse never arrive yet charge you anyway.
FANS WILL LOVE
It’s amazing how active Russians are on social media and your accounts will surge should you post while in the country. Throw in a few Cyrillic hashtags and watch your account numbers rocket.
FANS WILL LOATHE
With cold soups, bland dumplings and dried fish, Russian cuisine is not to everybody’s tastebuds. Fortunately, there are plenty Georgian restaurants to choose from, which are both excellent and economical.
FANS WILL LOVE
The World Cup will take place during St Petersburg's White Nights Festival, which means perpetual daylight in a city that genuinely never sleeps. (Think toddlers walking the streets with their grandmothers at 4am.)
FANS WILL LOATHE
The walk from Krestovsky Ostrov metro station to Saint Petersburg Arena on a rainy day makes you wonder why some of the $1.7 billion was not spent on a weather-protected walkway.
MATCH INFO
Maratha Arabians 107-8 (10 ovs)
Lyth 21, Lynn 20, McClenaghan 20 no
Qalandars 60-4 (10 ovs)
Malan 32 no, McClenaghan 2-9
Maratha Arabians win by 47 runs
Story%20behind%20the%20UAE%20flag
%3Cp%3EThe%20UAE%20flag%20was%20first%20unveiled%20on%20December%202%2C%201971%2C%20the%20day%20the%20UAE%20was%20formed.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIt%20was%20designed%20by%20Abdullah%20Mohammed%20Al%20Maainah%2C%2019%2C%20an%20Emirati%20from%20Abu%20Dhabi.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EMr%20Al%20Maainah%20said%20in%20an%20interview%20with%20%3Cem%3EThe%20National%3C%2Fem%3E%20in%202011%20he%20chose%20the%20colours%20for%20local%20reasons.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20black%20represents%20the%20oil%20riches%20that%20transformed%20the%20UAE%2C%20green%20stands%20for%20fertility%20and%20the%20red%20and%20white%20colours%20were%20drawn%20from%20those%20found%20in%20existing%20emirate%20flags.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
A Cat, A Man, and Two Women
Junichiro Tamizaki
Translated by Paul McCarthy
Daunt Books
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Skoda Superb Specs
Engine: 2-litre TSI petrol
Power: 190hp
Torque: 320Nm
Price: From Dh147,000
Available: Now
Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
Farage on Muslim Brotherhood
Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister.
"We will stop dangerous organisations with links to terrorism operating in our country," he said. "Quite why we've been so gutless about this – both Labour and Conservative – I don't know.
“All across the Middle East, countries have banned and proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a dangerous organisation. We will do the very same.”
It is 10 years since a ground-breaking report into the Muslim Brotherhood by Sir John Jenkins.
Among the former diplomat's findings was an assessment that “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” has “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, who commissioned the report, said membership or association with the Muslim Brotherhood was a "possible indicator of extremism" but it would not be banned.
Six large-scale objects on show
- Concrete wall and windows from the now demolished Robin Hood Gardens housing estate in Poplar
- The 17th Century Agra Colonnade, from the bathhouse of the fort of Agra in India
- A stagecloth for The Ballet Russes that is 10m high – the largest Picasso in the world
- Frank Lloyd Wright’s 1930s Kaufmann Office
- A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
- Torrijos Palace dome
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
What is the FNC?
The Federal National Council is one of five federal authorities established by the UAE constitution. It held its first session on December 2, 1972, a year to the day after Federation.
It has 40 members, eight of whom are women. The members represent the UAE population through each of the emirates. Abu Dhabi and Dubai have eight members each, Sharjah and Ras al Khaimah six, and Ajman, Fujairah and Umm Al Quwain have four.
They bring Emirati issues to the council for debate and put those concerns to ministers summoned for questioning.
The FNC’s main functions include passing, amending or rejecting federal draft laws, discussing international treaties and agreements, and offering recommendations on general subjects raised during sessions.
Federal draft laws must first pass through the FNC for recommendations when members can amend the laws to suit the needs of citizens. The draft laws are then forwarded to the Cabinet for consideration and approval.
Since 2006, half of the members have been elected by UAE citizens to serve four-year terms and the other half are appointed by the Ruler’s Courts of the seven emirates.
In the 2015 elections, 78 of the 252 candidates were women. Women also represented 48 per cent of all voters and 67 per cent of the voters were under the age of 40.
Who has lived at The Bishops Avenue?
- George Sainsbury of the supermarket dynasty, sugar magnate William Park Lyle and actress Dame Gracie Fields were residents in the 1930s when the street was only known as ‘Millionaires’ Row’.
- Then came the international super rich, including the last king of Greece, Constantine II, the Sultan of Brunei and Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal who was at one point ranked the third richest person in the world.
- Turkish tycoon Halis Torprak sold his mansion for £50m in 2008 after spending just two days there. The House of Saud sold 10 properties on the road in 2013 for almost £80m.
- Other residents have included Iraqi businessman Nemir Kirdar, singer Ariana Grande, holiday camp impresario Sir Billy Butlin, businessman Asil Nadir, Paul McCartney’s former wife Heather Mills.
Hunting park to luxury living
- Land was originally the Bishop of London's hunting park, hence the name
- The road was laid out in the mid 19th Century, meandering through woodland and farmland
- Its earliest houses at the turn of the 20th Century were substantial detached properties with extensive grounds
UAE tour of the Netherlands
UAE squad: Rohan Mustafa (captain), Shaiman Anwar, Ghulam Shabber, Mohammed Qasim, Rameez Shahzad, Mohammed Usman, Adnan Mufti, Chirag Suri, Ahmed Raza, Imran Haider, Mohammed Naveed, Amjad Javed, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed
Fixtures: Monday, first 50-over match; Wednesday, second 50-over match; Thursday, third 50-over match
'Champions'
Director: Manuel Calvo
Stars: Yassir Al Saggaf and Fatima Al Banawi
Rating: 2/5
'Operation Mincemeat'
Director: John Madden
Cast: Colin Firth, Matthew Macfayden, Kelly Macdonald and Penelope Wilton
Rating: 4/5
2020 Oscars winners: in numbers
- Parasite – 4
- 1917– 3
- Ford v Ferrari – 2
- Joker – 2
- Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood – 2
- American Factory – 1
- Bombshell – 1
- Hair Love – 1
- Jojo Rabbit – 1
- Judy – 1
- Little Women – 1
- Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl) – 1
- Marriage Story – 1
- Rocketman – 1
- The Neighbors' Window – 1
- Toy Story 4 – 1
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
The five pillars of Islam
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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1.
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United States
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2.
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China
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3.
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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7.
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Singapore
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8.
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Australia
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9.
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Saudi Arabia
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10.
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South Korea
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