Donald Trump attacked Bashar Al Assad’s regime. The first round of effects are heavily covered already – oil up, Russian equities and currency down, etc. But what next?
Let’s pick a base case scenario and lay the foundation first. Oil up is good for the economy. If you want to be cynical; so is a regional war. Look at how much money was made in the two Gulf Wars in 1991 and 2003. So equities will go up.
Should you buy? I won’t. You see, oil has two headwinds – the Opec cuts will be reversed and shale oil will keep flowing – both of which will dump tremendous amounts of oil on the market. Oil will go up, but not enough to reverse the contraction because of the drop from over US$100 in mid 2014. The good news for Saudi is that the Aramco IPO valuation just increased significantly.
What about the war dividend? There might be some, but there are two major differences to 1991 and 2003.
The first is that America now has substantial military assets already set up in the region. The second is that America with its 10 carrier strike groups can pound Assad’s Syrian regime into oblivion without being on the ground. So the dividend will be over-estimated.
What about the conspiracy theories? That this isn’t real, because the US president, Donald Trump, is simply trying to prove that the Russians didn’t elect him. Or that Mr Trump and Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, are in cahoots. Whatever conspiracy theory you subscribe to, it simply is not good for our economy.
So what will happen? We’ll see a quick, hard pop up on equities. Then the markets will tread water for a while before beginning to decline. The pundits, desperate to keep prices up, will attribute this to profit taking when in reality it is the realisation that nothing is happening. As enough people realise this, prices will drop faster. That is when you buy.
Here is why. Management will always use an external shock to provision as much possible, even though they don’t need it, blaming the external shock. They then reverse it the next year to book a tidy profit, get paid a handsome bonus and drive the stock price.
So keep an eye out for rising equity prices matched by rising provisions. That’s the red flag.
Sabah Al Binali is an active investor and entrepreneurial leader with a track record of growing companies in the Mena region. You can read more of his thoughts at al-binali.com.
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Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode
Directors: Raj & DK
Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon
Rating: 4/5
The biog
Favourite films: Casablanca and Lawrence of Arabia
Favourite books: Start with Why by Simon Sinek and Good to be Great by Jim Collins
Favourite dish: Grilled fish
Inspiration: Sheikh Zayed's visionary leadership taught me to embrace new challenges.
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
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Eyasses squad
Charlie Preston (captain) – goal shooter/ goalkeeper (Dubai College)
Arushi Holt (vice-captain) – wing defence / centre (Jumeriah English Speaking School)
Olivia Petricola (vice-captain) – centre / wing attack (Dubai English Speaking College)
Isabel Affley – goalkeeper / goal defence (Dubai English Speaking College)
Jemma Eley – goal attack / wing attack (Dubai College)
Alana Farrell-Morton – centre / wing / defence / wing attack (Nord Anglia International School)
Molly Fuller – goal attack / wing attack (Dubai College)
Caitlin Gowdy – goal defence / wing defence (Dubai English Speaking College)
Noorulain Hussain – goal defence / wing defence (Dubai College)
Zahra Hussain-Gillani – goal defence / goalkeeper (British School Al Khubairat)
Claire Janssen – goal shooter / goal attack (Jumeriah English Speaking School)
Eliza Petricola – wing attack / centre (Dubai English Speaking College)
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Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
If you go
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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The specs
Engine: 2.3-litre, turbo four-cylinder
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Power: 300hp
Torque: 420Nm
Price: Dh189,900
On sale: now
COMPANY PROFILE
Famous left-handers
- Marie Curie
- Jimi Hendrix
- Leonardo Di Vinci
- David Bowie
- Paul McCartney
- Albert Einstein
- Jack the Ripper
- Barack Obama
- Helen Keller
- Joan of Arc
SPECS
Engine: Two-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 235hp
Torque: 350Nm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Price: From Dh167,500 ($45,000)
On sale: Now
Stree
Producer: Maddock Films, Jio Movies
Director: Amar Kaushik
Cast: Rajkummar Rao, Shraddha Kapoor, Pankaj Tripathi, Aparshakti Khurana, Abhishek Banerjee
Rating: 3.5
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Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
World record transfers
1. Kylian Mbappe - to Real Madrid in 2017/18 - €180 million (Dh770.4m - if a deal goes through)
2. Paul Pogba - to Manchester United in 2016/17 - €105m
3. Gareth Bale - to Real Madrid in 2013/14 - €101m
4. Cristiano Ronaldo - to Real Madrid in 2009/10 - €94m
5. Gonzalo Higuain - to Juventus in 2016/17 - €90m
6. Neymar - to Barcelona in 2013/14 - €88.2m
7. Romelu Lukaku - to Manchester United in 2017/18 - €84.7m
8. Luis Suarez - to Barcelona in 2014/15 - €81.72m
9. Angel di Maria - to Manchester United in 2014/15 - €75m
10. James Rodriguez - to Real Madrid in 2014/15 - €75m
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
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Meydan racecard:
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 (PA) Group 1 | US$75,000 (Dirt) | 2,200 metres
7.05pm: UAE 1000 Guineas (TB) Listed | $250,000 (D) | 1,600m
7.40pm: Meydan Classic Trial (TB) Conditions | $100,000 (Turf) | 1,400m
8.15pm: Al Shindagha Sprint (TB) Group 3 | $200,000 (D) | 1,200m
8.50pm: Handicap (TB) | $175,000 (D) | 1,600m
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) | $175,000 (T) | 2,000m
10pm: Handicap (TB) | $135,000 (T) | 1,600m
Key products and UAE prices
iPhone XS
With a 5.8-inch screen, it will be an advance version of the iPhone X. It will be dual sim and comes with better battery life, a faster processor and better camera. A new gold colour will be available.
Price: Dh4,229
iPhone XS Max
It is expected to be a grander version of the iPhone X with a 6.5-inch screen; an inch bigger than the screen of the iPhone 8 Plus.
Price: Dh4,649
iPhone XR
A low-cost version of the iPhone X with a 6.1-inch screen, it is expected to attract mass attention. According to industry experts, it is likely to have aluminium edges instead of stainless steel.
Price: Dh3,179
Apple Watch Series 4
More comprehensive health device with edge-to-edge displays that are more than 30 per cent bigger than displays on current models.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
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The specs
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 620hp from 5,750-7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm from 3,000-5,750rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)
Transgender report
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GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
Kanguva
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Tomorrow 2021
On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
While you're here
While you're here
Hend Al Otaiba: A year ago, Covid-19 forced us apart – now, vaccines can bring us back together
National Editorial: Iata travel pass – 'digital passports' will get the world moving again
Lucy Sherriff: Covid vaccine passports: safeguard or ethical nightmare?
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
Electric scooters: some rules to remember
- Riders must be 14-years-old or over
- Wear a protective helmet
- Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
- Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
- Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
- Do not drive outside designated lanes
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
Results
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,200m, Winner: ES Rubban, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ibrahim Aseel (trainer)
5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh85,000 (T) 1,200m, Winner: Al Mobher, Sczcepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
6pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m, Winner: Jabalini, Tadhg O’Shea, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
6.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m, Winner: AF Abahe, Tadgh O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7pm: Handicap (PA) Dh85,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: AF Makerah, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: Law Of Peace, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar