Donald Trump attacked Bashar Al Assad’s regime. The first round of effects are heavily covered already – oil up, Russian equities and currency down, etc. But what next?
Let’s pick a base case scenario and lay the foundation first. Oil up is good for the economy. If you want to be cynical; so is a regional war. Look at how much money was made in the two Gulf Wars in 1991 and 2003. So equities will go up.
Should you buy? I won’t. You see, oil has two headwinds – the Opec cuts will be reversed and shale oil will keep flowing – both of which will dump tremendous amounts of oil on the market. Oil will go up, but not enough to reverse the contraction because of the drop from over US$100 in mid 2014. The good news for Saudi is that the Aramco IPO valuation just increased significantly.
What about the war dividend? There might be some, but there are two major differences to 1991 and 2003.
The first is that America now has substantial military assets already set up in the region. The second is that America with its 10 carrier strike groups can pound Assad’s Syrian regime into oblivion without being on the ground. So the dividend will be over-estimated.
What about the conspiracy theories? That this isn’t real, because the US president, Donald Trump, is simply trying to prove that the Russians didn’t elect him. Or that Mr Trump and Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, are in cahoots. Whatever conspiracy theory you subscribe to, it simply is not good for our economy.
So what will happen? We’ll see a quick, hard pop up on equities. Then the markets will tread water for a while before beginning to decline. The pundits, desperate to keep prices up, will attribute this to profit taking when in reality it is the realisation that nothing is happening. As enough people realise this, prices will drop faster. That is when you buy.
Here is why. Management will always use an external shock to provision as much possible, even though they don’t need it, blaming the external shock. They then reverse it the next year to book a tidy profit, get paid a handsome bonus and drive the stock price.
So keep an eye out for rising equity prices matched by rising provisions. That’s the red flag.
Sabah Al Binali is an active investor and entrepreneurial leader with a track record of growing companies in the Mena region. You can read more of his thoughts at al-binali.com.
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Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
Results
5pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,600m; Winner: Nadhra, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer)
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: AF Dars, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: AF Musannef, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: AF Taghzel, Malin Holmberg, Ernst Oertel
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: M’Y Yaromoon, Khalifa Al Neyadi, Jesus Rosales
7.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 (PA) 1,400m; Winner: Hakeem, Jim Crowley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
Should late investors consider cryptocurrencies?
Wealth managers recommend late investors to have a balanced portfolio that typically includes traditional assets such as cash, government and corporate bonds, equities, commodities and commercial property.
They do not usually recommend investing in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies due to the risk and volatility associated with them.
“It has produced eye-watering returns for some, whereas others have lost substantially as this has all depended purely on timing and when the buy-in was. If someone still has about 20 to 25 years until retirement, there isn’t any need to take such risks,” Rupert Connor of Abacus Financial Consultant says.
He adds that if a person is interested in owning a business or growing a property portfolio to increase their retirement income, this can be encouraged provided they keep in mind the overall risk profile of these assets.
Getting there and where to stay
Etihad Airways operates seasonal flights from Abu Dhabi to Nice Côte d'Azur Airport. Services depart the UAE on Wednesdays and Sundays with outbound flights stopping briefly in Rome, return flights are non-stop. Fares start from Dh3,315, flights operate until September 18, 2022.
The Radisson Blu Hotel Nice offers a western location right on Promenade des Anglais with rooms overlooking the Bay of Angels. Stays are priced from €101 ($114), including taxes.
TOUR RESULTS AND FIXTURES
June 3: NZ Provincial Barbarians 7 Lions 13
June 7: Blues 22 Lions 16
June 10: Crusaders 3 Lions 12
June 13: Highlanders 23 Lions 22
June 17: Maori All Blacks 10 Lions 32
June 20: Chiefs 6 Lions 34
June 24: New Zealand 30 Lions 15 (First Test)
June 27: Hurricanes 31 Lions 31
July 1: New Zealand 21 Lions 24 (Second Test)
July 8: New Zealand v Lions (Third Test) - kick-off 11.30am (UAE)
Hales' batting career
Tests 11; Runs 573; 100s 0; 50s 5; Avg 27.38; Best 94
ODIs 58; Runs 1,957; 100s 5; 50s 11; Avg 36.24; Best 171
T20s 52; Runs 1,456; 100s 1; 50s 7; Avg 31.65; Best 116 not out
Starring: Jamie Foxx, Angela Bassett, Tina Fey
Directed by: Pete Doctor
Rating: 4 stars
While you're here
Company profile
Name: Khodar
Based: Cairo and Alexandria, in Egypt
Founders: Ayman Hamza, Yasser Eidrous and Amr El Sheikh
Sector: agriculture technology
Funding: $500,000
Investors: Saudi Arabia’s Revival Lab and others
Employees: 35
The Specs
Engine 3.8-litre, twin-turbo V8
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 582bhp (542bhp in GTS model)
Torque: 730Nm
Price: Dh649,000 (Dh549,000 for GTS)
Our House, Louise Candlish,
Simon & Schuster
The specs
Engine: 3.0 twin-turbo inline six-cylinder
Transmission: eight-speed
Power: 503hp
Torque: 600Nm
Price: from Dh400,000 (estimate)
On sale: now
A cheaper choice
Vanuatu: $130,000
Why on earth pick Vanuatu? Easy. The South Pacific country has no income tax, wealth tax, capital gains or inheritance tax. And in 2015, when it was hit by Cyclone Pam, it signed an agreement with the EU that gave it some serious passport power.
Cost: A minimum investment of $130,000 for a family of up to four, plus $25,000 in fees.
Criteria: Applicants must have a minimum net worth of $250,000. The process take six to eight weeks, after which the investor must travel to Vanuatu or Hong Kong to take the oath of allegiance. Citizenship and passport are normally provided on the same day.
Benefits: No tax, no restrictions on dual citizenship, no requirement to visit or reside to retain a passport. Visa-free access to 129 countries.
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: Almouneer
Started: 2017
Founders: Dr Noha Khater and Rania Kadry
Based: Egypt
Number of staff: 120
Investment: Bootstrapped, with support from Insead and Egyptian government, seed round of
$3.6 million led by Global Ventures
Important questions to consider
1. Where on the plane does my pet travel?
There are different types of travel available for pets:
- Manifest cargo
- Excess luggage in the hold
- Excess luggage in the cabin
Each option is safe. The feasibility of each option is based on the size and breed of your pet, the airline they are traveling on and country they are travelling to.
2. What is the difference between my pet traveling as manifest cargo or as excess luggage?
If traveling as manifest cargo, your pet is traveling in the front hold of the plane and can travel with or without you being on the same plane. The cost of your pets travel is based on volumetric weight, in other words, the size of their travel crate.
If traveling as excess luggage, your pet will be in the rear hold of the plane and must be traveling under the ticket of a human passenger. The cost of your pets travel is based on the actual (combined) weight of your pet in their crate.
3. What happens when my pet arrives in the country they are traveling to?
As soon as the flight arrives, your pet will be taken from the plane straight to the airport terminal.
If your pet is traveling as excess luggage, they will taken to the oversized luggage area in the arrival hall. Once you clear passport control, you will be able to collect them at the same time as your normal luggage. As you exit the airport via the ‘something to declare’ customs channel you will be asked to present your pets travel paperwork to the customs official and / or the vet on duty.
If your pet is traveling as manifest cargo, they will be taken to the Animal Reception Centre. There, their documentation will be reviewed by the staff of the ARC to ensure all is in order. At the same time, relevant customs formalities will be completed by staff based at the arriving airport.
4. How long does the travel paperwork and other travel preparations take?
This depends entirely on the location that your pet is traveling to. Your pet relocation compnay will provide you with an accurate timeline of how long the relevant preparations will take and at what point in the process the various steps must be taken.
In some cases they can get your pet ‘travel ready’ in a few days. In others it can be up to six months or more.
5. What vaccinations does my pet need to travel?
Regardless of where your pet is traveling, they will need certain vaccinations. The exact vaccinations they need are entirely dependent on the location they are traveling to. The one vaccination that is mandatory for every country your pet may travel to is a rabies vaccination.
Other vaccinations may also be necessary. These will be advised to you as relevant. In every situation, it is essential to keep your vaccinations current and to not miss a due date, even by one day. To do so could severely hinder your pets travel plans.
Source: Pawsome Pets UAE
RIVER SPIRIT
Author: Leila Aboulela
Publisher: Saqi Books
Pages: 320
Available: Now
FIGHT CARD
From 5.30pm in the following order:
Featherweight
Marcelo Pontes (BRA) v Azouz Anwar (EGY)
Catchweight 90kg
Moustafa Rashid Nada (KSA) v Imad Al Howayeck (LEB)
Welterweight
Mohammed Al Khatib (JOR) v Gimbat Ismailov (RUS)
Flyweight (women)
Lucie Bertaud (FRA) v Kelig Pinson (BEL)
Lightweight
Alexandru Chitoran (BEL) v Regelo Enumerables Jr (PHI)
Catchweight 100kg
Mohamed Ali (EGY) v Marc Vleiger (NED)
Featherweight
James Bishop (AUS) v Mark Valerio (PHI)
Welterweight
Gerson Carvalho (BRA) v Abdelghani Saber (EGY)
Middleweight
Bakhtiyar Abbasov (AZE) v Igor Litoshik (BLR)
Bantamweight:
Fabio Mello (BRA) v Mark Alcoba (PHI)
Welterweight
Ahmed Labban (LEB) v Magomedsultan Magemedsultanov (RUS)
Bantamweight
Trent Girdham (AUS) v Jayson Margallo (PHI)
Lightweight
Usman Nurmagomedov (RUS) v Roman Golovinov (UKR)
Middleweight
Tarek Suleiman (SYR) v Steve Kennedy (AUS)
Lightweight
Dan Moret (USA) v Anton Kuivanen (FIN)
TWISTERS
Director:+Lee+Isaac+Chung
Starring:+Glen+Powell,+Daisy+Edgar-Jones,+Anthony+Ramos
Rating:+2.5/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: SmartCrowd
Started: 2018
Founder: Siddiq Farid and Musfique Ahmed
Based: Dubai
Sector: FinTech / PropTech
Initial investment: $650,000
Current number of staff: 35
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Various institutional investors and notable angel investors (500 MENA, Shurooq, Mada, Seedstar, Tricap)
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Xpanceo
Started: 2018
Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality
Funding: $40 million
Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)
What is a robo-adviser?
Robo-advisers use an online sign-up process to gauge an investor’s risk tolerance by feeding information such as their age, income, saving goals and investment history into an algorithm, which then assigns them an investment portfolio, ranging from more conservative to higher risk ones.
These portfolios are made up of exchange traded funds (ETFs) with exposure to indices such as US and global equities, fixed-income products like bonds, though exposure to real estate, commodity ETFs or gold is also possible.
Investing in ETFs allows robo-advisers to offer fees far lower than traditional investments, such as actively managed mutual funds bought through a bank or broker. Investors can buy ETFs directly via a brokerage, but with robo-advisers they benefit from investment portfolios matched to their risk tolerance as well as being user friendly.
Many robo-advisers charge what are called wrap fees, meaning there are no additional fees such as subscription or withdrawal fees, success fees or fees for rebalancing.
Company profile
Company name: Fasset
Started: 2019
Founders: Mohammad Raafi Hossain, Daniel Ahmed
Based: Dubai
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $2.45 million
Current number of staff: 86
Investment stage: Pre-series B
Investors: Investcorp, Liberty City Ventures, Fatima Gobi Ventures, Primal Capital, Wealthwell Ventures, FHS Capital, VN2 Capital, local family offices
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: Revibe
Started: 2022
Founders: Hamza Iraqui and Abdessamad Ben Zakour
Based: UAE
Industry: Refurbished electronics
Funds raised so far: $10m
Investors: Flat6Labs, Resonance and various others
More on Palestine-Israeli relations
Albadr Alshateri: US stance has undermined efforts to end conflict
Michael Young: Arab initiative that could be the real path to peace
James Haines-Young: Why Palestinians face a darkening future
While you're here
Ibrahim Al Zubi: Circular economy can shape a bright future for the Mena region
Ambika Vishwanath and Karma Ekmekji: A simple trick to save billions of litres of water
Maram Ahmed: The Middle East is thirsty for solutions to water scarcity
PSG's line up
GK: Alphonse Areola (youth academy)
Defence - RB: Dani Alves (free transfer); CB: Marquinhos (€31.4 million); CB: Thiago Silva (€42m); LB: Layvin Kurzawa (€23m)
Midfield - Angel di Maria (€47m); Adrien Rabiot (youth academy); Marco Verratti (€12m)
Forwards - Neymar (€222m); Edinson Cavani (€63m); Kylian Mbappe (initial: loan; to buy: €180m)
Total cost: €440.4m (€620.4m if Mbappe makes permanent move)
While you're here
Richard Heydarian: Decoding Asean's deliberate silence over the Myanmar coup
Kareem Shaheen: Our Myanmar reactions shaped by simplistic narratives
Sholto Byrnes: Washington tells South-East Asians to pick a side
THE HOLDOVERS
Director: Alexander Payne
Starring: Paul Giamatti, Da'Vine Joy Randolph, Dominic Sessa
Rating: 4.5/5
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
MORE FROM ED HUSAIN: The UAE-Israel accord is a win for every Muslim
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.