Middle East electricity demand triples and the strain is just beginning, says IEA

Cooling, desalination and post-conflict shortages drive the region to energy crossroads

Natural gas provides 70 per cent of Mena's electricity, and oil nearly 20 per cent. The National

Electricity demand in the Middle East and North Africa has tripled since 2000, and it is set to increase by 50 per cent by 2035, as rapid population growth, urbanisation and industrial expansion drive up consumption.

This amount is equal to the combined consumption of Germany and Spain, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The Mena region, mainly viewed as a global oil and gas supplier, is now emerging as a global centre of electricity demand growth.

Weekend EssayWhy is energy-rich Iraq still having to import electricity?

Read More

“Everybody talks about China, India being the centre of global electricity demand growth. But [the] Mena region is a blind spot in these discussions,” Dr Fatih Birol, executive director at the IEA, told The National.

“It has the third largest growth after China and India.”

Air cooling and the treatment of seawater to produce fresh water are among the main driving forces.

Solar farms and decentralised energy grids could be the answer to help dampen the rapid growth, says The Future of Electricity in the Middle East and North Africa report, released on Thursday.

Gulf countries are pouring billions into such sources to provide energy needed to supply the rising demand, yet millions in post-conflict areas remain in perpetual darkness, facing electricity deficits and dependent on traditional sources, to their own detriment.

Cooling and water at the heart of it

Temperatures in the Middle East and North Africa are climbing at more than twice the global average, according to research by Greenpeace, which is making cooling indispensable.

Air conditioning accounts for nearly half of the region’s peak demand and a quarter of annual consumption. By 2035, cooling is set to become the single biggest driver of electricity growth, the report states.

In the Mena region, the amount of electricity needed to power air conditioning is extreme, and cooling systems are also highly inefficient, says Dr Birol.

“Air conditioners [in the region] use two times more electricity compared to Japan,” he said.

Dr Birol said that was particularly true for Gulf countries, where many households own AC units, as opposed to 20 per cent for the rest of the region.

Water scarcity adds a second pressure point. With seven of the world’s eight most water-stressed countries, the Mena region relies heavily on desalination. The region produced 12 billion cubic metres of desalinated water last year, and this is set to triple by 2035.

Natural gas provides 70 per cent of Mena's electricity, and oil nearly 20 per cent. Coal is marginal outside Morocco. Subsidies keep hydrocarbons cheap, reinforcing dependence.

Yet diversification is under way, and government policies such as those of the UAE and Saudi Arabia are moving it forward, says Dr Bitol.

“We expect the [energy] growth between now and 2035 … half the growth will be supplied by natural gas, and the other half mainly from solar, and a bit of nuclear as well,” he said.

Solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity is expected to increase tenfold by 2035, reaching 200 gigawatts. Renewables’ share could rise to a quarter of generation, up from 6 per cent today. Nuclear power is also expanding, with reactors operating in the UAE and under construction in Egypt and Iran.

Even as demand soars, supply lags behind in several countries. Iraq lost $95 billion in economic output from power cuts between 2014 and 2020. Egypt, Kuwait and others have recently resorted to scheduled power cuts during extreme heat.

These problems highlight the vulnerability of grids under climate and demographic stress, and the uneven ability of states to invest in modernisation.

Chronic shortages in post-conflict countries

In post-conflict countries, electricity shortages are endemic. Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Syria and Yemen all face systemic deficits that undermine daily life and economic recovery.

In Syria, only 30 per cent of surveyed locations reported access to public electricity. More than 80 per cent of them received less than four hours a day.

The grid supply in Yemen has not recovered from the 2015 shutdown of its largest power plant, in Marib.

Lebanon’s public supply only covers a fraction of its demand, powering 80 per cent of its electricity by private diesel generators.

Reliance on such generators brings high costs, safety hazards and toxic pollution.

Last year, fire in Tripoli killed five children when a generator exploded. Meanwhile, air pollution in Baghdad now exceeds World Health Organisation limits by eight-fold.

Renewable lifeline

Off-grid solar and community mini-grids are emerging as lifelines. In Lebanon, the number of rooftop solar installations has risen tenfold in recent years. If interconnected, they could supply four times more reliable power than today’s fragmented system.

But scaling these solutions requires co-ordination and financing. Without it, much of the electricity produced is wasted – an estimated 1 TWh a year in Lebanon alone.

While wealthy Gulf states plan AI-driven data centres and nuclear plants, displaced people face energy poverty. In Syria, nearly 20 per cent of communities report no access to electricity at all. For refugees and internally displaced people, lack of electricity deepens vulnerability and delays return to normal life.

The IEA identifies four pillars for future-proofing Mena's electricity: expanding renewables and reducing hydrocarbon dependence; modernising grids to handle rising loads; investing in energy storage facilities; and using mini-grids and other decentralised solutions.

Policy will determine whether Mena's electricity story is one of resilience or crisis. For producers such as Saudi Arabia, diversifying can also free hydrocarbons for export and earn them more revenue.

“Today, altogether about 1.8 million barrels per day of oil are used for electricity generation [in the Middle East],” Dr Birol said, adding that the amount is substantially shrinking.

“So there will be more oil available to export and get hard currencies, hard revenue for the countries.”

For importers such as Jordan and Morocco, renewables can protect economies from shocks.

But for conflict-torn states the task is more urgent. Without reliable electricity, recovery is near impossible, according to the IEA.

“Solar and renewables – since they are distributed [electricity] generation, not a central one – will provide more security and it will be much less reliant on the grids, which are more vulnerable to physical attacks,” said Dr Birol.

As demand continues its relentless climb, the region faces the challenge of not just keeping the lights on, but ensuring that electricity becomes an engine of stability, not a source of division.

Energy co-operation that benefits all can help ensure security, says Dr Birol, with agreements such as the Arab Common Electricity Market signed in December last year.

The Arab League agreement was signed by countries including the UAE, Palestine, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Yemen and Libya, among others, to create stable electricity flow and supply and improve electricity use efficiency amid regional growth.