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A sense of unease has settled over the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group this week in Washington, as policymakers, investors and development leaders deal with a rapidly shifting global economic landscape.
At the centre of attention is the escalating crisis involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy supplies.
The IEA has already described this as “the greatest global energy security threat in history", as the US prepares to enforce a blockade on Iranian oil exports that has already seen markets react, raising prices to extreme levels.
The effect is being felt immediately by those on the ground.
“I’m honestly confused. The issue is that the world in an economic sense is not a certain place anymore … right now we have a war in the Middle East and energy prices are real high,” said Eldayag Mustafayev, chief financial officer at Secure Africa Partners.
Mr Mustafayev said he expects the IMF and World Bank to be in a similar position.
"It's also very challenging for them to give us some exact, clear answer[s]," he told The National on the sidelines.
Mr Mustayev expects the institutions to provide options for whatever may occur, "so that we will have instructions how to behave if this [scenario] is realised or another case is realised," he said. He added that unpredictability is the only constant.
Abadi Ismail, who works in shipping and trade at AJI Groups, echoed the sentiment.
“There is a lot of chaos and we need stability, and we need assurance and a path forward," Mr Ismail said.
"When we have such unpredictable supply chains that any delays could shift the entire market a week later, three months later that impacts the consumers, businesses, governments … and everyone that is in the global chain supply."
This is attracting a wider group of people to the spring meetings looking for answers, according to some experts.
"You are seeing different officials coming to Washington for the meetings because it has always been exclusively ministers of trade, investment finance, but clearly we see more focus on coming here from VCs, CEOs … who are working on foreign policy [now]," said Mohammed Soliman, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, who has been attending the meetings for more than a decade.
This is shifting the focus of discussions in Washington. Issues such as inflation and growth, typically addressed through monetary and fiscal policy, are now being influenced by forces that lie beyond the reach of traditional tools, he said. Energy shocks, supply disruptions and geopolitical tension are feeding directly into economic outcomes.
“So the main theme for the World Bank/IMF meetings this year is that uncertainty is certain," Mr Soliman said
Not new but escalating
Even before the latest escalation, the global outlook was fragile. The World Bank had forecast modest growth for 2026, broadly in line with recent years, while warning of persistent vulnerabilities across emerging markets. Now, officials say the conflict could materially weaken that outlook.
World Bank President Ajay Banga has warned that global growth could be reduced by between 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points in a contained scenario, and by as much as one percentage point if conflict escalates further, with higher energy prices feeding into inflation.
The outlook for the Middle East had been cautiously improving, with growth expected to recover to about 3.0 to 3.6 per cent this year. That is now uncertain. Policymakers and analysts say the region’s exposure to energy markets and trade flows leaves it particularly sensitive to any sustained disruption.
In a joint statement released on Sunday, the heads of the International Energy Agency, IMF and World Bank warned that the impact of the war is “substantial, global, and highly asymmetric”, disproportionately affecting energy-importing and low-income countries. Rising oil, gas and fertiliser prices are already fuelling concerns over food security, job losses and prolonged inflationary pressures.
More broadly, the meetings are unfolding amid growing concern that the global economic order is fragmenting under the weight of these shocks.
“The global system, as we know it, is fragmenting,” Amro Zakaria, founding partner of Kyoto Network and Madarik Ventures, told The National last week.
Trade relationships are increasingly shaped by political considerations, supply chains are being reconfigured, and co-operation between major powers is under strain.
Fatih Birol, head of the IEA, said that future energy partnerships may no longer be driven primarily by price, but rather by “how reliable my partner is” politically.
Uncertain but hopeful
For some, the uncertainty is also prompting a reassessment of priorities.
“I’d have to say that I’m a bit pessimistic about the current situation but I think that it draws our attention and calls to improve the work we do” said Marco Vermaasen Aranzana, senior environment manager at Bank Information Centre, which seeks to improve the transparency, accountability, and sustainability of international financial institutions. “We need to step up our effort. Actually, the bank needs to do more to develop our society or get people out of poverty or fight climate change."
Others see signs of adaptation in the system.
“A lot of companies are affected by this, some of them shift from World Bank funding to government funding but IMF has said that they have allocated bigger funds to this so we’re quite optimistic to see what’s happening” said Alla Carabadjac, deputy director at DevelopmentAid.
Younger voices at the meetings reflected an even more refreshing take.
“Personally, I would say that I am concerned but at the same time excited," said Hemle Bleleg, Global Youth Leader at Madiba Hope Initiative and Zooki AI.
"We have to remember that the IMF and the spring meetings are the melting point where every leader and actor in the international scene comes in to find concrete solutions and a resolution to what's going on in the world.”
