The UAE’s economy grew by 3.8 per cent during the first nine months of last year, with growth driven by a strong expansion in non-oil sectors as the country continues to diversify its economy.
Real gross domestic product of the Emirates for the nine-month period to the end of September rose to Dh1.32 trillion ($359.4 billion). The non-oil economy grew by 4.5 per cent annually to Dh987 billion, accounting for nearly 75 per cent of the country's economic activity, while the oil sector made up the rest, state news agency Wam reported.
The continuous growth of the national economy, “reaffirms the success of the UAE’s economic policies and strategies aimed at enhancing economic diversification, facilitating business activities, and promoting the expansion of new economy sectors as a key driver for sustainable economic and social development”, Wam quoted Abdullah bin Touq Al Marri, Minister of Economy, as saying.
“National efforts continue to increase the contribution of non-oil sectors to the national economy, develop more flexible and competitive economic legislations, enhance economic openness to the world, and build productive partnerships with key regional and global markets,” Mr Al Marri said.
These efforts support the objectives of the “We the UAE 2031" vision, which aims to raise the country’s GDP to Dh3 trillion by the next decade and establish the UAE as a global hub for the new economy, he added.
The UAE, the Arab world's second-largest economy, has been focusing heavily on diversifying its economy away from oil by developing sectors such as technology, manufacturing, tourism, trade and innovation. The country has introduced several reforms including longer-stay residence visas as well as new visa categories to attract more talent.
Last September, the UAE Central Bank said it expected the country's economy to grow by 4 per cent last year, an increase from its June estimate of 3.9 per cent, on the back of a boost from its non-oil sector. Growth will also be supported by economic agreements the country has signed with its global trade partners, the regulator said at the time.
The UAE's non-oil foreign trade also hit a record Dh3 trillion last year − up 14.6 per cent year-on-year.
The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (Cepas) with various nations, from Colombia to Australia, have contributed Dh135 billion to its non-oil trade with partner nations, an increase of 42 per cent compared to the previous year, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, said last month.
Cepas aim to reduce tariffs and remove bottlenecks that hamper trade. This programme is projected to increase national exports by 33 per cent and add more than Dh153 billion to the economy by 2031.
Dubai lender Emirates NBD said in a note on Thursday that it estimates the oil sector to have expanded by more than 1 per cent last year.
“On an annual basis, we estimate the economy expanded by 3.9 per cent in the third quarter compared with the same period a year earlier, with the non-oil sector expanding by 4.6 per cent,” the bank said.
“Based on activity data for the fourth quarter, it would appear that there was an acceleration in activity in the final months of the year, supporting our estimate of strong non-oil activity in 2024. The pace of growth announced for the third quarter is in line with our target of 3.7 per cent growth for the year as a whole.”
For 2025, the UAE Central Bank expects the country's economy to grow by 6 per cent, while the International Monetary Fund forecasts expansion of 5.1 per cent.
Russia's Muslim Heartlands
Dominic Rubin, Oxford
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
The Bloomberg Billionaire Index in full
1 Jeff Bezos $140 billion
2 Bill Gates $98.3 billion
3 Bernard Arnault $83.1 billion
4 Warren Buffett $83 billion
5 Amancio Ortega $67.9 billion
6 Mark Zuckerberg $67.3 billion
7 Larry Page $56.8 billion
8 Larry Ellison $56.1 billion
9 Sergey Brin $55.2 billion
10 Carlos Slim $55.2 billion
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Planes grounded by coronavirus
British Airways: Cancels all direct flights to and from mainland China
Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific: Cutting capacity to/from mainland China by 50 per cent from Jan. 30
Chicago-based United Airlines: Reducing flights to Beijing, Shanghai, and Hong Kong
Ai Seoul: Suspended all flights to China
Finnair: Suspending flights to Nanjing and Beijing Daxing until the end of March
Indonesia's Lion Air: Suspending all flights to China from February
South Korea's Asiana Airlines, Jeju Air and Jin Air: Suspend all flights
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Norwich 2-2 Arsenal (Dec 01, PL)
Arsenal 1-2 Brighton (Dec 05, PL)
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