The Indian Ocean will become more critical amid rising energy imports in Asia. Reuters
The Indian Ocean will become more critical amid rising energy imports in Asia. Reuters
The Indian Ocean will become more critical amid rising energy imports in Asia. Reuters
The Indian Ocean will become more critical amid rising energy imports in Asia. Reuters

Can a 'Nato of the seas' ensure stability in the trade corridors of the Indian Ocean?


Robin Mills
  • English
  • Arabic

A mariner’s map is the inverse of a landlubber’s: the continents are blanks while coastlines and seas are rich with symbols. The same inversion of perspective illuminates energy geopolitics.

The Indian Ocean, more than its surrounding territories, has been a coherent area of trade and cultural exchange since before the Roman times. Now long-term trends of geo-economics and the sharp edge of conflict in Europe demand this holistic view.

The third-largest ocean is outlined by critical maritime transit points, anti-clockwise from the Cape of Good Hope, the Mozambique Channel, the Suez Canal and Bab Al Mandeb, the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Malacca and Lombok Strait. Bypass oil and gas pipelines through Myanmar to South-Eastern China have become lifelines themselves.

Just before the pandemic, a third of global oil exports came from the Gulf, and 85 per cent of that went to the Middle East, Africa and, above all, Asia. The Gulf accounted for a quarter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, with three-quarters of these exports to the Middle East and Asia.

The Indian Ocean will become more critical. Chinese President Xi Jinping perceived this when he proposed the ocean as the heart of the “maritime Silk Road” in a 2013 speech to the Indonesian parliament. He then bolted it to overland Eurasian connectivity in the Belt-and-Road Initiative.

Its rising importance was already in train before this year, because of important shifts on the supply and demand side. Increasing exports are driven by the likely long-term rise in the Middle East’s share of world oil production, the plans for greatly expanded LNG production in Qatar and the UAE, and important new LNG projects in East Africa (Mozambique and Tanzania) and Western Australia.

Growing Asian economies are boosting energy imports. China has overtaken Japan as the world’s biggest LNG buyer. It is the world’s largest net importer of oil, with India in second place, Japan third, South Korea fourth and Singapore eighth. Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam are also growing LNG customers.

As Europe reduces or eliminates reliance on Russian hydrocarbons, Middle Eastern countries would shift some of their exports westward, while more Russian oil, LNG and coal would head through Suez to south and east Asia.

And these will be joined by new energy carriers. The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Western Australia and the Northern Territory have ambitions to be leading players in the emerging global business of hydrogen. That will flow to Japan, South Korea and through the Suez to Europe.

Yet these critical flows pass through a contested region. There are local problems: the ISIS-inspired insurgency around the LNG plant in northern Mozambique, continued instability in Somalia, the Tigray war in Ethiopia, Sri Lanka’s economic crisis and the coup and its opposition in Myanmar.

There are also the international conflicts: the protracted war in Yemen, tit-for-tat attacks on shipping in the Arabian and Red Seas, and the three-quarters of a century long confrontation between India and Pakistan.

And looming over everything is the shadow of China, the geopolitical giant. It has interests in ports around the Indian Ocean, such as Gwadar in Pakistan, which faces Iran’s Indian-focused harbour of Chabahar, Malé in the Maldives, Mombasa in Kenya, and its first overseas military base in Djibouti. The commercial viability, scale of real investments and strategic coherence of this “string of pearls” is often exaggerated. But any threat to unfettered maritime access worries India, isolated overland by geography.

What should a new security architecture look like? Any grand alliance including extra-regional powers would appear to counter someone: not Iran, too paltry a threat on oceanic scales, so therefore for or against China.

The Central Treaty Organisation in the Middle East, and the South East Asian Treaty Organisation, were set up in 1955 and intended as American- and British-backed analogues of Nato, to contain Soviet expansion. But they foundered by the late 1970s because of the absence of non-aligned India, internal rivalries, the Iranian Revolution and the Vietnam War.

More than a decade ago, geopolitical thinker Robert Kaplan mused on a “Nato of the seas” for the Indian Ocean, comprising Australia, Singapore, South Africa, Pakistan, India and Oman. Today, such a grand scheme would surely include the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Indonesia and, in future, Bangladesh are other essential states.

But he was well aware of two great problems: containing the rivalry between Islamabad and New Delhi, and maintaining strategic coherence with slow ships across a vast and diverse area. The growing alignment of Pakistan with China, and Beijing’s own inroads in strategic locations such as Sri Lanka and the Maldives, complicate the whole concept as a countermove to China. And the US seems less likely to be an anchor, as GCC states have growing concerns over its regional commitment and focus.

In September, the Aukus pact linked Australia, the UK and the US, though at the cost of annoying France. Since 2017, the US has renewed efforts to draw India together with Australia and Japan in the “Quad”. But despite India’s Himalayan clashes with China, New Delhi has been shy of any appearance of an anti-Chinese alliance. China is an essential energy customer and investor for the GCC and Iraq, as well as Iran.

A more constructive system would be inclusive rather than exclusive. Avoiding the dangerous great-power competition re-emerging in eastern Europe and east Asia, it would still need a mission that is not comprehensive to the point of vagueness.

Tackling terrorism, illegal fishing, piracy and natural disasters are worthy efforts but insufficient. Climate and the environment offer grander themes. Order may have to emerge from a series of open associations.

Interruption of free commerce through the ocean and its subsidiary straits and gulfs would be disastrous for the world economy and the littoral states. A pragmatic Indian Ocean Treaty Association could bring an “Iota” of security to this pivotal sea.

Robin M. Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis

The Bio

Amal likes watching Japanese animation movies and Manga - her favourite is The Ancient Magus Bride

She is the eldest of 11 children, and has four brothers and six sisters.

Her dream is to meet with all of her friends online from around the world who supported her work throughout the years

Her favourite meal is pizza and stuffed vine leaves

She ams to improve her English and learn Japanese, which many animated programmes originate in

Victims%20of%20the%202018%20Parkland%20school%20shooting
%3Cp%3EAlyssa%20Alhadeff%2C%2014%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EScott%20Beigel%2C%2035%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EMartin%20Duque%2C%2014%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ENicholas%20Dworet%2C%2017%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAaron%20Feis%2C%2037%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EJaime%20Guttenberg%2C%2014%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EChris%20Hixon%2C%2049%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ELuke%20Hoyer%2C%2015%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ECara%20Loughran%2C%2014%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EGina%20Montalto%2C%2014%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EJoaquin%20Oliver%2C%2017%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAlaina%20Petty%2C%2014%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EMeadow%20Pollack%2C%2018%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EHelena%20Ramsay%2C%2017%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAlex%20Schachter%2C%2014%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ECarmen%20Schentrup%2C%2016%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPeter%20Wang%2C%2015%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Fines for littering

In Dubai:

Dh200 for littering or spitting in the Dubai Metro

Dh500 for throwing cigarette butts or chewing gum on the floor, or littering from a vehicle. 
Dh1,000 for littering on a beach, spitting in public places, throwing a cigarette butt from a vehicle

In Sharjah and other emirates
Dh500 for littering - including cigarette butts and chewing gum - in public places and beaches in Sharjah
Dh2,000 for littering in Sharjah deserts
Dh500 for littering from a vehicle in Ras Al Khaimah
Dh1,000 for littering from a car in Abu Dhabi
Dh1,000 to Dh100,000 for dumping waste in residential or public areas in Al Ain
Dh10,000 for littering at Ajman's beaches 

If you go:
The flights: Etihad, Emirates, British Airways and Virgin all fly from the UAE to London from Dh2,700 return, including taxes
The tours: The Tour for Muggles usually runs several times a day, lasts about two-and-a-half hours and costs £14 (Dh67)
Harry Potter and the Cursed Child is on now at the Palace Theatre. Tickets need booking significantly in advance
Entrance to the Harry Potter exhibition at the House of MinaLima is free
The hotel: The grand, 1909-built Strand Palace Hotel is in a handy location near the Theatre District and several of the key Harry Potter filming and inspiration sites. The family rooms are spacious, with sofa beds that can accommodate children, and wooden shutters that keep out the light at night. Rooms cost from £170 (Dh808).

Desert Warrior

Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley

Director: Rupert Wyatt

Rating: 3/5

The President's Cake

Director: Hasan Hadi

Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem 

Rating: 4/5

Last-16 Europa League fixtures

Wednesday (Kick-offs UAE)

FC Copenhagen (0) v Istanbul Basaksehir (1) 8.55pm

Shakhtar Donetsk (2) v Wolfsburg (1) 8.55pm

Inter Milan v Getafe (one leg only) 11pm

Manchester United (5) v LASK (0) 11pm 

Thursday

Bayer Leverkusen (3) v Rangers (1) 8.55pm

Sevilla v Roma  (one leg only)  8.55pm

FC Basel (3) v Eintracht Frankfurt (0) 11pm 

Wolves (1) Olympiakos (1) 11pm 

COMPANY PROFILE

Name: Cofe

Year started: 2018

Based: UAE

Employees: 80-100

Amount raised: $13m

Investors: KISP ventures, Cedar Mundi, Towell Holding International, Takamul Capital, Dividend Gate Capital, Nizar AlNusif Sons Holding, Arab Investment Company and Al Imtiaz Investment Group 

Jetour T1 specs

Engine: 2-litre turbocharged

Power: 254hp

Torque: 390Nm

Price: From Dh126,000

Available: Now

Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20JustClean%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%20with%20offices%20in%20other%20GCC%20countries%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ELaunch%20year%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202016%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20160%2B%20with%2021%20nationalities%20in%20eight%20cities%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20online%20laundry%20and%20cleaning%20services%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2430m%20from%20Kuwait-based%20Faith%20Capital%20Holding%20and%20Gulf%20Investment%20Corporation%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20SupplyVan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ELaunch%20year%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2029%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20MRO%20and%20e-commerce%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Who is Mohammed Al Halbousi?

The new speaker of Iraq’s parliament Mohammed Al Halbousi is the youngest person ever to serve in the role.

The 37-year-old was born in Al Garmah in Anbar and studied civil engineering in Baghdad before going into business. His development company Al Hadeed undertook reconstruction contracts rebuilding parts of Fallujah’s infrastructure.

He entered parliament in 2014 and served as a member of the human rights and finance committees until 2017. In August last year he was appointed governor of Anbar, a role in which he has struggled to secure funding to provide services in the war-damaged province and to secure the withdrawal of Shia militias. He relinquished the post when he was sworn in as a member of parliament on September 3.

He is a member of the Al Hal Sunni-based political party and the Sunni-led Coalition of Iraqi Forces, which is Iraq’s largest Sunni alliance with 37 seats from the May 12 election.

He maintains good relations with former Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki’s State of Law Coaliton, Hadi Al Amiri’s Badr Organisation and Iranian officials.

Non-oil%20trade
%3Cp%3ENon-oil%20trade%20between%20the%20UAE%20and%20Japan%20grew%20by%2034%20per%20cent%20over%20the%20past%20two%20years%2C%20according%20to%20data%20from%20the%20Federal%20Competitiveness%20and%20Statistics%20Centre.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIn%2010%20years%2C%20it%20has%20reached%20a%20total%20of%20Dh524.4%20billion.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ECars%20topped%20the%20list%20of%20the%20top%20five%20commodities%20re-exported%20to%20Japan%20in%202022%2C%20with%20a%20value%20of%20Dh1.3%20billion.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EJewellery%20and%20ornaments%20amounted%20to%20Dh150%20million%20while%20precious%20metal%20scraps%20amounted%20to%20Dh105%20million.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERaw%20aluminium%20was%20ranked%20first%20among%20the%20top%20five%20commodities%20exported%20to%20Japan.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ETop%20of%20the%20list%20of%20commodities%20imported%20from%20Japan%20in%202022%20was%20cars%2C%20with%20a%20value%20of%20Dh20.08%20billion.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Lexus LX700h specs

Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor

Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm

Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm

Transmission: 10-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh590,000

Mobile phone packages comparison
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3ECompany%20name%3A%20EduPloyment%3Cbr%3EDate%20started%3A%20March%202020%3Cbr%3ECo-Founders%3A%20Mazen%20Omair%20and%20Rana%20Batterjee%3Cbr%3EBase%3A%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20Recruitment%3Cbr%3ESize%3A%2030%20employees%3Cbr%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20Pre-Seed%3Cbr%3EInvestors%3A%20Angel%20investors%20(investment%20amount%20undisclosed)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
David Haye record

Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4

How%20champions%20are%20made
%3Cp%3E%0D%3Cstrong%3EDiet%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E7am%20-%20Protein%20shake%20with%20oats%20and%20fruits%0D%3Cbr%3E10am%20-%205-6%20egg%20whites%0D%3Cbr%3E1pm%20-%20White%20rice%20or%20chapati%20(Indian%20bread)%20with%20chicken%0D%3Cbr%3E4pm%20-%20Dry%20fruits%20%0D%3Cbr%3E7.30pm%20-%20Pre%20workout%20meal%20%E2%80%93%20grilled%20fish%20or%20chicken%20with%20veggies%20and%20fruits%0D%3Cbr%3E8.30pm%20to%20midnight%20workout%0D%3Cbr%3E12.30am%20%E2%80%93%20Protein%20shake%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20intake%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204000-4500%20calories%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESaidu%E2%80%99s%20weight%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20110%20kg%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStats%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Biceps%2019%20inches.%20Forearms%2018%20inches%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tank warfare

Lt Gen Erik Petersen, deputy chief of programs, US Army, has argued it took a “three decade holiday” on modernising tanks. 

“There clearly remains a significant armoured heavy ground manoeuvre threat in this world and maintaining a world class armoured force is absolutely vital,” the general said in London last week.

“We are developing next generation capabilities to compete with and deter adversaries to prevent opportunism or miscalculation, and, if necessary, defeat any foe decisively.”

Jurassic%20Park
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESteven%20Spielberg%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sam%20Neill%2C%20Jeff%20Goldblum%20and%20Richard%20Attenborough%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What can victims do?

Always use only regulated platforms

Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion

Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)

Report to local authorities

Warn others to prevent further harm

Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Updated: April 25, 2022, 12:16 PM