After years of pent-up demand for leisure and business travel due to Covid-19, millions of Chinese passengers are returning to the skies as the nation leads an aviation boom across Asia.
China’s return is thought to be the final missing piece in the global air travel recovery. Domestic travel has led the rebound in Asia’s top aviation market, and now international travel is set to take off after lifting a ban on group tours to popular destinations.
Yet the resurgence comes with a drawback: It’s likely to lift jet fuel consumption amid tight supplies, potentially supercharging prices.
In recent months, the availability of aviation fuel has slipped, with stockpiles at hubs such as Singapore and Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp below seasonal averages. That’s due to a series of unplanned refinery outages, as well as increased diesel production at the expense of jet fuel.
While aviation fuel prices are nowhere near the highs of last year, they’ve jumped about 30 per cent this month compared with the start of July, trading above $116 a barrel in Singapore, according to Bloomberg Fair Value data.
Higher jet fuel prices may weigh on airlines currently enjoying bumper profits, while travellers could see higher fares if companies pass along those steeper costs.
Global oil prices have risen more than 15 per cent in the past two months due to Opec output curbs as well as higher run rates by refiners looking to cash in on good fuel-making profits. Banks such as UBS have adjusted their oil price forecasts upwards, citing a market deficit.
A big question mark for the outlook on oil and the global economy has been China’s uneven recovery. While overall growth in the nation has been weaker than expected, various data on flight bookings are an encouraging sign.
China's weekly flights surged 13 per cent above pre-Covid levels in the week ending August 20, according to travel platform Flight Master.
International travel is also picking up. Bookings for overseas group tours during the National Day Holiday in October more than tripled from a month ago as of August 17 – a week after China eased restrictions – online travel agency Trip.com Group said.
Searches for overseas flights as of early August already surpassed the same time period in 2019, according to a separate statement. Flights between the US and China are set to double from current levels by the end of October.
A full recovery for Chinese international tourism won’t come overnight. After four years of harsh Covid restrictions, those looking to travel are facing high costs amid a weakening yuan, the sluggish economy and difficulty in getting travel documents such as visas.
The increase in demand comes as fuel supplies are stretched, leaving markets more vulnerable to diesel and jet fuel price shocks.
China’s jet fuel demand is set to accelerate from August and could return to pre-Covid levels by the fourth quarter, Energy Aspects said.
On a global level, while demand is set to rise by an average of 200,000 barrels a day in the latter half of the year from the first six months, a return to pre-pandemic levels will take place as soon as mid-2024, said Mukesh Sahdev, head of oil trading and downstream solution at Rystad Energy.
Oil markets are pricing in a scarcity for so-called middle-distillate fuels such as diesel and jet fuel. Inventories at crucial oil hubs have been thinned by a global refinery system that has been pressured by outages and capacity shutdowns in recent years.
More refinery maintenance work lies ahead in North America and Europe during September and October, meaning these fuel supplies could shrink further, Mr Sahdev said.
“Right now, the supply risk for oil products is strong,” he said. Jet fuel prices could peak in September, putting pressure on recovering airlines, he added.
Tim Bacchus, senior aviation analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said rising fuel bills may prompt airlines to pass on some of their costs to customers by lifting or introducing fuel surcharges.
This could also crimp travel demand, especially in Asia, where consumers are already paying for more expensive tickets, he said.
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
'Top Gun: Maverick'
Rating: 4/5
Directed by: Joseph Kosinski
Starring: Tom Cruise, Val Kilmer, Jennifer Connelly, Jon Hamm, Miles Teller, Glen Powell, Ed Harris
Company%20Profile
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Company%20profile
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What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
At a glance
- 20,000 new jobs for Emiratis over three years
- Dh300 million set aside to train 18,000 jobseekers in new skills
- Managerial jobs in government restricted to Emiratis
- Emiratis to get priority for 160 types of job in private sector
- Portion of VAT revenues will fund more graduate programmes
- 8,000 Emirati graduates to do 6-12 month replacements in public or private sector on a Dh10,000 monthly wage - 40 per cent of which will be paid by government
6.30pm Meydan Classic Trial US$100,000 (Turf) 1,400m
Winner Bella Fever, Dane O’Neill (jockey), Mike de Kock (trainer).
7.05pm Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner Woven, Harry Bentley, David Simcock.
7.40pm UAE 2000 Guineas Group Three $250,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
Winner Fore Left, William Buick, Doug O’Neill.
8.15pm Dubai Sprint Listed Handicap $175,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner Rusumaat, Dane O’Neill, Musabah Al Muhairi.
8.50pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-2 Group Two $450,000 (D) 1,900m
Winner Benbatl, Christophe Soumillon, Saeed bin Suroor.
9.25pm Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,800m
Winner Art Du Val, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
10pm Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner Beyond Reason, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
