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US President Donald Trump issued warnings to Iran over the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, as traffic in the narrow waterway remains restricted.
Oil will soon begin moving through the strait “with or without” Iran’s co-operation, Mr Trump said on Truth Social. The message was posted days after he suggested a "joint venture" in the waterway.
“Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonourable some would say, of allowing oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have,” he said, in reference to the two-week ceasefire agreed to by the US and Iran.
Mr Trump also warned Iran against imposing tolls on tankers during the negotiations in Islamabad – talks that are now in doubt. He said tolls "better not be" in place and "if they are, they better stop now".
Traffic in the strait, through which about 20 per cent of the world's oil and gas normally passes, remains severely constrained as focus falls on the planned US-Iran negotiations.
Seven vessels crossed the strait on Thursday and five transited on Wednesday, down from 11 on Tuesday, data from market intelligence firm Kpler showed. Before the war began on February 28, about 140 ships passed through the waterway each day. An estimated 230 vessels loaded with oil are stuck in the Arabian Gulf.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps called for ships to sail through Iranian waters, around Larak Island, to avoid sea mines in the strait, Reuters reported on Thursday. The IRGC told vessels to enter the strait north of the island and exit to the south of it, in co-ordination with the group's navy, Reuters quoted local media as saying.
The two-week ceasefire may "reduce immediate disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, but it does not imply a rapid return to normal shipping conditions", Ana Subasic, trade risk analyst at Kpler said in a note on Thursday.
"While some vessel movement has resumed, traffic remains very limited, compliant shipowners are likely to stay cautious and safe transit capacity is expected to remain constrained at maximum 10 to 15 passages a day if the ceasefire holds, without consideration of tolls applied."
But that would still be an increase from the average of six passages a day since March 1 and would mean between 140 and 210 ships could sail through the strait during the two-week ceasefire, she said. "If most slots are allocated outbound, the majority of those movements would likely be vessels exiting" the Gulf, she added.
Iran has effectively blocked the strait in response to its war with the US and Israel. One of Tehran's proposals for permanently ending the conflict includes a provision allowing it to charge ships to pass through the strait to compensate for damage caused by the war.
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, said in a statement on Thursday that the country planned to control the waterway. "We will also undoubtedly take the management of the Strait of Hormuz to a new stage," he said.
Several world leaders, including from Italy, India, Germany and Singapore, issued warnings this week against the closure of the strait and any Iranian toll on ships.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas on Thursday said Iran's choking of the strait had become “everybody's problem”.
“We are really focusing on the freedom of navigation in these waters," she told The National. "Because if we go down that slippery slope of giving the right to ask tolls or taxes over these waters that have been open before, then I think we will see this elsewhere in the world as well, and this is a very dangerous development."
Dr Sultan Al Jaber, Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and managing director and group chief executive of Adnoc, stressed that energy security and global economic stability “depend” on free and safe passage through the strait.
No country has a “legitimate right to determine who may pass and under what terms”, Dr Al Jaber said in a post on LinkedIn on Thursday. “Iran has made clear – through both its statements and actions – that passage is subject to permission, conditions and political leverage. That is not freedom of navigation. That is coercion.
“The weaponisation of this vital waterway, in any form, cannot stand. This would set a dangerous precedent for the world – undermining the principle of freedom of navigation that underpins global trade and, ultimately, the stability of the global economy.”
