Arab states can use economics to push Syria

The Syrian regime will fight until the last bullet. Arab countries have a duty to push Damascus to allow international observers to monitor the situation, by any means possible.

Ibrahim Al Shaibani, a 10-year-old from Damascus, died on Friday after security forces shot him in the chest while he took part in an anti-regime demonstration. He is one of the 187 children killed in the clampdown that began with the uprising seven months ago. The pictures of doctors trying to resuscitate him should be foremost in the minds of Arab foreign ministers who meet in Cairo today.

So far, Arab countries have not taken any really meaningful steps against Damascus. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain have recalled their ambassadors. That is about it. The Arab League called on the Assad regime to embark on reforms, but it has become obvious that President Bashar Al Assad will not be persuaded to end the violence, simply because his regime will crumble if he does.

The spectre of civil war looms, as the United Nations warned on Friday. The country is boiling with anger. Three thousand people are known to have been killed but the real death toll can only be guessed. Tribal, ethnic and religious leaders are all being targeted by the regime.

Arab countries must join forces with the EU and US to end the bloodshed. EU sanctions that ban Syrian oil imports will take effect on November 15, which will deprive the regime of at least 25 per cent of its income.

With military intervention essentially off the table, there has been some despair about what other countries can do. The answer is economic pressure. In the past, we have been wary about recommending sanctions because of the effect on ordinary Syrians, but as the bloodshed worsens, that is the lesser of two evils.

The regime has been compelled to balance two opposing positions: political support from the business community or sound economic decisions. It has little room to manoeuvre: earlier this month, Damascus reversed its ban on non-essential imports because of pressure from the business community. The regime's vulnerability on economic issues, and to narrowly targeted sanctions, should not be underestimated.

Arab countries must get on board with sanctions and begin to work with the opposition National Council. Recognition of the opposition as the sole representative of the Syrian people would have significant economic implications as overseas funds would be frozen and diverted to the opposition.

The regime will fight until the last bullet, so the world and Arab countries especially have a duty to protect civilians and prevent a civil war. To be effective, this Cairo meeting of the Arab League must push Damascus to allow international observers to monitor the situation. Protesters have asked for observers for months - it is past time that Arab countries responded.