ISTANBUL // On Sunday night, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan finally achieved the goal he has long sought: a total recasting of Turkey’s political system with the levers of power firmly in his own grasp.
But judging by his subdued demeanour at a victory speech in Istanbul, it did not taste as sweet as he had expected. He and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) had publicly called for the “Yes” camp to win the referendum with a 20 percentage point lead to back their controversial and far-reaching set of constitutional amendments.
On the night, however, they scraped through with just 51.3 per cent of the vote, and with a majority of electors in the largest cities – including Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir – opposing the reforms.
More seriously, two opposition parties rejected the result amid accusations of electoral fraud, while monitors from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) cast doubt on its legitimacy.
Since 2013, when Mr Erdogan’s administration was hit by mass protests that were crushed with police force and corruption investigations targeting his inner circle, he has fought to draw a line under a crisis of legitimacy that has plagued him, while purging his enemies and seizing ever tighter control of the state apparatus.
Sunday’s unemphatic result has formalised that control, but it is likely to even further undermine his authority in the eyes of roughly half of Turkey’s electorate.
People might well ask why it matters that Mr Erdogan’s victory was so narrow. There are strongmen in other countries who have survived on far less popular support, and Turkey has never been a democratic haven.
Its old Kemalist elite for decades exerted an unelected hegemony, toppling governments and banning political movements from its strongholds in the military and judiciary.
But Sunday’s referendum result – and the campaign that preceded it and the manner in which it was won – strikes a devastating blow to Turkey’s prospects of ever attaining to a genuinely democratic society.
The vote took place during a state of emergency in which civil rights were drastically curtailed. Scores of critical journalists were imprisoned, as well as dozens of politicians from the main Kurdish opposition party.
Rules obliging media organisations to report impartially were lifted, allowing the government to use its vast preponderance of media power to flood the airwaves with its propaganda.
With tens of thousands of opposition activists in prison, and many more blacklisted from working in the public sector, those campaigning against a “Yes” vote risked not only their freedom, but also blighting their own future prospects.
The principal controversy of the referendum, however, hinges on a decision by Turkey’s High Electoral Board (YSK) to allow ballots that had not been stamped by election officials – normally invalid – to be included in the count.
Although the decision was not unprecedented, the opposition People’s Republican Party (CHP) has claimed that some 1.5 million unstamped votes were included in this way, far higher than previous totals and potentially enough to change the result.
The government claims the number was far lower, and the true number has yet to be revealed by the YSK – a body many view as being packed with Erdogan loyalists.
Such fears over the integrity and impartiality of state institutions – which has always been a problem in Turkey – are only likely to be enhanced by the new constitutional amendments, which give the president broader powers to hire and fire bureaucrats.
What does the future now hold for Turkey? Mr Erdogan’s narrow victory and its contested nature are unlikely to push him to govern in a more conciliatory manner, as he signalled after victory by announcing plans to reinstate the death penalty.
He will bank on the fact that his newly-formalised powers, and his support among about half of the population, which has remained rock solid, will provide with as much legitimacy as he needs.
But the increasing cronyism of his rule, his purges, and an increasingly eccentric economic vision are slowly pushing the country towards economic crisis. This risk will further be accentuated by worsening relations with Europe, Turkey’s biggest trading partner, with which Mr Erdogan provoked conflicts in the lead up to the vote.
In normal circumstances, this growing storm would suggest trouble ahead for the leader of a democracy. But Turkey appears to be fast departing the fold of democratic nations.
foreign.desk@thenational.ae
