US left with 'limited options' in Baghdad as deadly violence flares

Experts predict a dwindling American influence in shaping policy and politics in Iraq

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  Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi has threatened to resign if the political stand-off in the country is not resolved. Photo: Iraqi Prime Minister's Media Office

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  An aerial view of Yafa Street in Baghdad after Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr called on his supporters to withdraw from the Iraqi capital's heavily fortified Green Zone. AP

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  Plumes of smoke rise after small fires were lit near the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier and Parliament in Baghdad. AP

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  Mr Al Sadr's followers heed his call to withdraw from the Green Zone after violent clashes in Baghdad. Reuters

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  A supporter of Mr Al Sadr helps to dismantle the encampment in Baghdad's high-security Green Zone. AFP

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  Supporters of Mr Al Sadr pack up belongings as they prepare to leave the Green Zone. AP

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  A supporter of Mr Al Sadr rolls up a mattress as their encampment in the Green Zone is dismantled. AFP

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  Municipality workers clean up while Iraqi army soldiers guard the entrance to the Green Zone. AFP

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  Mr Al Sadr addresses a news conference in Najaf, Iraq. Reuters

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  Iraqi Shiite gunmen clash with government forces in the Green Zone of central Baghdad. EPA

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  Smoke rises from a building in Baghdad. EPA

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  Armed members of Saraya Al Salam, the military wing affiliated with Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr. AFP

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  An armed member of Saraya Al Salam. AFP

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  A member of Saraya Al Salam takes aim. AFP

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  Armed members of the Peace Brigades militia in Baghdad's Green Zone. AFP

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  They are affiliated with Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr. AFP

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  Peace Brigades members clash with security forces in the Iraqi capital. AFP

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  The office of rival Shiite party the Badr Organisation, which was burnt by Sadrists. Reuters

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  Iraqi security armoured vehicles during clashes with the Peace Brigades in the Green Zone. AFP

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  Peace Brigades members carry weapons in the fortified zone. AFP

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  Smoke over Baghdad during an army-imposed curfew, a day after 23 Al Sadr supporters were shot dead. AFP

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  A Peace Brigades member leads a mass funeral in Najaf for Al Sadr supporters killed in the clashes in Baghdad's Green Zone. AFP

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  Tears during the mass funeral. AFP

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  Mourners pray in front of the coffins of Al Sadr supporters. Reuters

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  A coffin is carried at the funeral. AFP

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  The ceremony took place at a cemetery in Najaf, central Iraq. AFP

President Joe Biden's administration is finding its hands increasingly tied in Baghdad after violent clashes this week over the Iraqi government stalemate left at least 30 people dead and hundreds more injured.

Various US agencies are monitoring the violence as concerns grow of a return to internal armed conflict in Iraq, but there is no clear strategy from Washington on how to prevent it.

For nine months, the US has called on Iraqi parties to break the political impasse, form a government and protect state institutions. But US officials have refrained from direct engagement in negotiations over a cabinet formation.

Barbara Leaf, Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs, this month told Congress that Iraqi leaders had urged Washington to enter the fray "for us to sort things out, to put the thumb on the scale in this standoff over government formation”.

“That's not something we're going to do,” Ms Leaf said.

On Tuesday, followers of Iraq's Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr left Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone after he called for their withdrawal, ending violence at least for the moment.

Iraq’s government has been in deadlock since Mr Al Sadr’s party won the largest share of seats in parliamentary elections last October, but not enough to secure a majority government.

State Department deputy spokesman Vedant Patel on Monday said there were no Biden administration calls to Baghdad that he could outline, even as rockets were fired close to the US embassy compound in the Green Zone.

“The reports of unrest throughout Iraq today are disturbing, as Iraqi institutions are not being allowed to function,” he said, while denying reports that the American embassy had been evacuated.

"This in turn increases the risk of violence, and Iraq’s security, stability and sovereignty should not be put at risk.

“Now is the time for dialogue, and we urge all those involved to remain calm and pursue peaceful avenues of redress.”

Al Sadr followers gather outside Supreme Judiciary Council building in Baghdad – in pictures

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  Followers of Moqtada Al Sadr have expanded their sit-in to the Supreme Judiciary Council building inside the Green Zone in Baghdad. All photos: Sadrist Media Office

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  The Iraqi capital’s heavily fortified Green Zone was last month stormed by Mr Al Sadr’s supporters, who occupied the parliament building and staged a sit-in.

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  The continuing protests come amid a 10-month political impasse over forming a new government in Iraq.

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  The Shiite cleric’s supporters have set up tents outside the headquarters of Iraq’s top judicial body.

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  They are demanding the dissolution of the Iraqi Parliament and an end to corruption.

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  Demonstrators gathered in front of the Supreme Judicial Council early on Tuesday.

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  The now expanded sit-in has made it impossible for politicians to convene and proceed with the formation of a new government.

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  The political deadlock that has engulfed Iraq looks set to continue.

Sarhang Hamasaeed, a scholar on Iraq and the director of Middle East Programmes at the US Institute of Peace, predicted a waning US influence on shaping politics in Baghdad.

“While the US is interested in a stable and democratic Iraq, it has very low influence and [low] desire to intervene in Iraq’s politics these days,” he told The National.

Washington’s options remain limited, he said, “because none of the actors that are party to the current escalation would heed its advice and it does not have leverage points to pressure them”.

The US does not have a strong rapport with the main stakeholders in the Baghdad troubles, namely the followers of cleric Moqtada Al Sadr and Iran’s allies in Iraq.

Working with the United Nations and Iraqi authorities to help protect state institutions may be the extent of Washington's efforts to calm the situation, Mr Hamasaeed said.

Avoiding becoming a party to the conflict and preventing a resurgence of ISIS by exploiting the potential vacuum define Washington’s priorities, he argued.

David Schenker, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and a former assistant secretary of state, said the US government was late to the game and now faced an increasingly volatile situation.

“The Biden administration has not been seen as playing much of a role during the government formation process in the last year,” Mr Schenker told The National.

“Other than calling for calm, it’s not clear the US can do much right now to mitigate the crisis."

The former US official said the current volatility could strengthen Iran's hand, despite its proxies losing a majority to the Al Sadr camp in the 2021 elections.

“Despite having lost the elections, Iran and its allies are likely to emerge from this crisis in a strengthened position,” Mr Schenker said.

Both experts said Baghdad’s descent into a full-scale cycle of violence would be detrimental to US interests, especially if the political void dragged on and state institutions were weakened.