America's long security, defence and commerce history in the Middle East gives it a “clear advantage” over China, whose economic influence is on the rise in the region, a senior US official said on Thursday.
Barbara Leaf, the US assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, told the Senate that America’s eight-decade history in safeguarding the region gave it an edge over Beijing — and that it should be maintained.
“For decades, we have worked to prevent conflicts and terrorism from threatening the security and stability of the United States and that of our partners and allies, to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and to ensure the security of our closest partners, including an ironclad commitment to Israel’s security,” Ms Leaf said.
As Washington assesses China’s “influence today in the Middle East and North Africa, in these areas that matter most to our national security, we retain a clear advantage that [Beijing] is unable to challenge”, she added.
Ms Leaf said the region remains critical for US national security, arguing that its “sea lanes are essential to a secure global supply chain and commerce” and that its energy resources remain vital for market stability and the global economy.
“I would not want to see China pick up the role that we have had for almost 80 years in securing sea lanes and the flow commerce energy,” she said.
“It’s a big job. It's a big responsibility.”
She noted, however, the exponential rise of China’s economic interests and role in the region. Ms Leaf said China's trade activity had risen from $15.2 billion in 2000 to $284.3bn in 2021.
“That dramatic jump was driven in no small part by energy — mainly oil and natural gas — accounting for 46 per cent of the total trade today,” she said.
The US trade with the Middle East during that same 20-year period rose from $63.4bn to $98.4bn.
Ms Leaf pointed to Beijing’s close relationship with Tehran and said Chinese-made drones are being supplied to Iranian proxies attacking Gulf countries.
She argued this is a liability for China's security ties with Arab countries.
“It is an irony. I'm the first to say that those UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles] to these [Iranian] proxies are Chinese,” Ms Leaf said.
“They're not provided by the state, but the state does not attempt to curtail that flow.”
Ms Leaf warned, however, of the risk Arab states could face in increasing defence relations with China.
Asked about the possibility of Beijing establishing military bases in the region, the senior US official made it clear this would be a red line for Washington.
“This is a kind of issue where we're very clear with our partners: economic relationships are one thing, buying defence articles are another thing, but they will quickly run up against the [US] bilateral defence relationship itself,” she said.
As to China’s 25-year strategic defence agreement with Iran, Ms Leaf said it was not surprising but required more work from Washington to counter its impact.
“The regime in Tehran is itself so supremely isolated and not just because of our sanctions — it’s isolated because of its own actions, its own predatory destructive behaviour within [the country] as well as the larger region,” she said.
Ms Leaf stated that President Joe Biden’s visit to the region last month was aimed at laying the groundwork to counter China's influence and do “the hard diplomatic work, the defence work, the security co-operation, intelligence co-operation [work] with all of those neighbours, but not just the Gulf countries”.
On Iraq and the current stalemate over the formation of a new government, Ms Leaf said that the administration is “leveraging relationships and providing good counsel and above all, counselling these blocks” without becoming involved in the political infighting.
She added that she is likely visit to the country in September.
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There are many factors worrying investors right now and triggering a rush out of stock markets. Here are four of the biggest:
1. Rising US interest rates
The US Federal Reserve has increased interest rates three times this year in a bid to prevent its buoyant economy from overheating. They now stand at between 2 and 2.25 per cent and markets are pencilling in three more rises next year.
Kim Catechis, manager of the Legg Mason Martin Currie Global Emerging Markets Fund, says US inflation is rising and the Fed will continue to raise rates in 2019. “With inflationary pressures growing, an increasing number of corporates are guiding profitability expectations downwards for 2018 and 2019, citing the negative impact of rising costs.”
At the same time as rates are rising, central bankers in the US and Europe have been ending quantitative easing, bringing the era of cheap money to an end.
2. Stronger dollar
High US rates have driven up the value of the dollar and bond yields, and this is putting pressure on emerging market countries that took advantage of low interest rates to run up trillions in dollar-denominated debt. They have also suffered capital outflows as international investors have switched to the US, driving markets lower. Omar Negyal, portfolio manager of the JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust, says this looks like a buying opportunity. “Despite short-term volatility we remain positive about long-term prospects and profitability for emerging markets.”
3. Global trade war
Ritu Vohora, investment director at fund manager M&G, says markets fear that US President Donald Trump’s spat with China will escalate into a full-blown global trade war, with both sides suffering. “The US economy is robust enough to absorb higher input costs now, but this may not be the case as tariffs escalate. However, with a host of factors hitting investor sentiment, this is becoming a stock picker’s market.”
4. Eurozone uncertainty
Europe faces two challenges right now in the shape of Brexit and the new populist government in eurozone member Italy.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, which has offices in Dubai, says the stand-off between between Rome and Brussels threatens to become much more serious. "As with Brexit, neither side appears willing to step back from the edge, threatening more trouble down the line.”
The European economy may also be slowing, Mr Beauchamp warns. “A four-year low in eurozone manufacturing confidence highlights the fact that producers see a bumpy road ahead, with US-EU trade talks remaining a major question-mark for exporters.”
'The worst thing you can eat'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
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Nutritional yeast
This is Firth's pick and an ingredient he says, "gives you an instant cheesy flavour". He advises making your own cream cheese with it or simply using it to whip up a mac and cheese or wholesome lasagne. It's available in organic and specialist grocery stores across the UAE.
Seeds
"We've got a big jar of mixed seeds in our kitchen," Theasby explains. "That's what you use to make a bolognese or pie or salad: just grab a handful of seeds and sprinkle them over the top. It's a really good way to make sure you're getting your omegas."
Umami flavours
"I could say soya sauce, but I'll say all umami-makers and have them in the same batch," says Firth. He suggests having items such as Marmite, balsamic vinegar and other general, dark, umami-tasting products in your cupboard "to make your bolognese a little bit more 'umptious'".
Onions and garlic
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- Express passion for the issue but be aware of when you're losing control or when there's anger. If there is, pause and take some time out.
- Listen actively without interrupting
- Avoid assumptions, seek understanding, ask questions
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