US President Joe Biden may not bring home any term-defining wins from his historic Middle East tour, but the visit may be enough to assure regional leaders he still values America's partners in the Gulf.
Over four days, the US leader met counterparts from more than a dozen countries as he travelled to Israel, the occupied West Bank and Saudi Arabia. He was looking to shore up support, patch strained ties and tout the benefits of further integrating Israel with Arab states.
At Saturday's Jeddah Security and Development Summit, which brought together leaders of the GCC as well as Jordan, Egypt and Iraq, Mr Biden said he didn't always get things right but was “committed” to being an “engaged partner in the Middle East.”
The president's mere presence in Saudi Arabia, a country he once said he would make a “pariah” following the murder of Saudi dissident and US resident Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, has drawn rebuke in the US ― even though he said his stance was aimed at "reorienting" America's relationship with the kingdom, not "rupturing" it.
His fist bump with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, upon arriving at Al Salam Palace here, was on the front page of every major US newspaper on Saturday.
“I think it’s a big win for the Saudis, no question,” said Bernard Haykel, a professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University. “A big win for the crown prince.”
The fact that Biden chose to come to Jeddah “signals that the president and the United States are going to be much more present, much more active in the Middle East,” Professor Haykel told The National.
The president is currently lagging in the polls, with his approval rating in the low 30s.
But this trip is unlikely to win him any favour with voters, although he may have improved the US relationship and standing in the region and put Washington on a stronger footing going forward.
“I do think he should have gone,” said Sanam Vakil, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, a UK-based think tank that focuses on international affairs. “I do believe that bringing the Gulf on-side is important.”
While in the Middle East, the president helped to convince Saudi Arabia to open its airspace to all civilian flights, meaning Israeli planes will be able to fly over the kingdom. In return, the US agreed to remove its long-established peacekeeping force from a remote Red Sea island, allowing Saudi Arabia to take full control of the coveted Tiran Island, which it seeks to develop as a tourist hub.
While not earth-shattering achievements, the president hopes they are incremental steps to bringing Saudi Arabia and Israel closer together and help build a more unified front against Iran.
“I think they're very important, practical and symbolic steps that will over time, when Saudi Arabia is ready, set the countries for normalisation,” Ms Vakil told The National. “But the kingdom isn't going to normalise without having its own sort of package of demands and incentives.”
After the Abraham Accords gave rise to the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco establishing ties with Israel, the kingdom reiterated that it was still committed to the 2000 Arab Initiative that sets a two-state peace agreement for Palestinians, with their capital in occupied East Jerusalem, as a condition for relations with Israel.
The US president also made it clear that he wanted the region to look West before it looks East.
“We will not walk away and leave a vacuum filled by China, Russia or wherever,” he said to the GCC+3 leaders.
Professor Haykel believes it may be too late for such binary geopolitics.
“What we’re seeing is structural. I think the world is moving away from one that is unipolar, where the Americans are, as the French say, the hyperpower,” he said.
While that could well be the case, Mr Biden may have done enough to reset or even advance US interests in the region.
Speaking to The National, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel Al Jubeir said “everything is as it is supposed to be'' in terms of relations between the countries.
“But at the leadership level, because this is the first visit by President Biden as president, symbolically it's important,” he added.
Ms Vakil believes while the trip may not be a “panacea” it may “set up processes” that help lead to “greater confidence between the Biden administration and the Gulf states”.
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The Book of Collateral Damage
Sinan Antoon
(Yale University Press)
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Fixtures
Tuesday - 5.15pm: Team Lebanon v Alger Corsaires; 8.30pm: Abu Dhabi Storms v Pharaohs
Wednesday - 5.15pm: Pharaohs v Carthage Eagles; 8.30pm: Alger Corsaires v Abu Dhabi Storms
Thursday - 4.30pm: Team Lebanon v Pharaohs; 7.30pm: Abu Dhabi Storms v Carthage Eagles
Friday - 4.30pm: Pharaohs v Alger Corsaires; 7.30pm: Carthage Eagles v Team Lebanon
Saturday - 4.30pm: Carthage Eagles v Alger Corsaires; 7.30pm: Abu Dhabi Storms v Team Lebanon
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Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
