The number of people who are suffering from a long-term sickness and are neither in work or looking for work in the UK has reached a record, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics.
Overall, the rate of economic inactivity — those not in work, nor looking for work — decreased by 0.4 per cent in the three months from January to March this year, to 21 per cent.
The ONS said the decrease in economic inactivity during the first quarter was largely driven by people aged between 16 and 24 years old. The reason for the overall decrease was mostly down to students leaving university and looking for jobs and some retirees return to the labour market.
However, those inactive because of long-term sickness increased to a record high 2.55 million.
“We saw another increase in those exiting the labour market due to becoming long-term sick,” Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the ONS told the BBC.
“That means that since the onset of the pandemic, there are well over 400,000 more people outside of the labour market due to ill health and that means we are now at a new record level of comfortably over 2.5 million.”
“Analysis we've done recently showed that the strongest increases in ill health have been in conditions related to mental health, particularly in the young, a rise in people having muscular skeletal issues — so, problems connected to the back and neck, with some theories of the increase in home working contributing to that — and we've also seen an increase in the category that include post-viral fatigue, so perhaps long Covid having an impact there.”
Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, agrees that much of the rise in long-term sickness could be down not just to the effects of Covid itself, but also to the change in working patterns during the lockdown periods.
“Perching on uncomfortable kitchen chairs or balancing over an ironing board which is doubling up as a desk didn’t do the nation’s backs any favours and the devastating impact of long Covid and mental health issues are also making it impossible for some people to do their jobs,” she said.
“And many of those people might just have the skills desperately needed by some employers.
“It’s an issue that needs further attention, but with the NHS fighting its own post-Covid battles it’s also an issue that looks incredibly difficult to resolve.”
Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown, said that while people who are fit to work are flooding back into the labour market, there is “no such relief for those who are struggling with long-term sickness”.
She said: “People suffering from conditions that were exacerbated by lockdowns and gaps in care during the pandemic aren’t getting the care they need.
“According to the British Medical Association, in March there were 7.3 million people waiting for NHS care — and they estimate it will take a year to clear the backlog. It means the number who are economically inactive because of long-term sickness has hit a record high.”
Overall figures from the ONS showed that the rate of UK unemployment rose to 3.9 per cent in the three months to March, up from 3.8 per cent in the previous quarter.
The number of vacancies fell by 55,000 in the first quarter of 2023, compared to the last quarter of last year to 1.08 million in the three months to April, marking the 10th fall in a row.
Vacancies are now at the lowest level since June to August 2021, according to the ONS.
“A combination of high costs and cash-strapped consumers is now causing some businesses to hesitate before hiring, uncertain as to what the future holds,” said Kitty Ussher, chief economist at the Institute of Directors.
“As a result, the number of employees has fallen for the first time in over two years, and the unemployment rate is starting to rise from its post-pandemic low.”
“But there is also evidence of a skills mismatch, with other organisations finding it hard to recruit the talent they need even as unemployment goes up — there are still 282,000 more vacancies in the UK than before the pandemic.
“Government policy needs to work harder to ensure that our education and training system is providing the types of skills that employers are looking for.”
However, the ONS figures also showed a rise in the employment rate to 75.9 per cent.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: “It's encouraging that the unemployment rate remains historically low, but difficulty in finding staff and rising prices are a worry for many families and businesses.
“That's why we must stick to our plan to halve inflation and help families with the cost of living.”
