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In the early hours of Sunday, a company of British paratroopers and another of Royal Marines prepared their weapons to immediately “go kinetic” in Sudan.
A backroom deal had been negotiated with the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces to allow the safe passage of a road convoy carrying diplomats and their families from Khartoum to an airstrip.
But if the escorting special forces team came into contact with the enemy, the paratroopers and marines would have been ordered to strike.
“Steamrolling through the checkpoints wasn't assured, so there was a company paras and marines on each of the three extraction points ready to go kinetic should the checkpoints not adhere,” a defence source involved in the planning told The National.
“The checkpoints were unlikely to be anti-British, but given the criminality from an ill-disciplined militia, we could not be sure.”
The daring operation involved the evacuation of 24 diplomats and their families, duplicating a similar effort by US Navy Seals and other nations rapidly extracting their staff.
But following the high-stakes operations, thousands of British, American and other foreign citizens have been left behind and, now without embassy protection, have to fend for themselves.
Their future looks increasingly insecure.
Analysts from the London-based Sibylline intelligence firm have warned that the situation in Khartoum is likely to deteriorate, with inmates freed from Kobar prison joining the fight and the RSF receiving anti-aircraft missiles.
Added to the mix is the presence of Russian Wagner Group mercenaries, who have provided weapons and training to both sides and remain an unknown quantity in the conflict.
Western intervention
There are 16,000 US passport holders, many with dual citizenship, up to 4,000 Britons and thousands more westerners now stuck in Sudan, ordered by their countries to shelter in place for now.
Their lives will be in increasingly in jeopardy if the fighting intensifies, with governments under pressure to respond.
The idea to create a powerful international intervention force has been suggested by Tobias Ellwood, MP, chairman of the Commons defence committee.
“When you add up the force capabilities mobilised to get embassy personnel out, the UK, US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Sweden, that's over 10,000 special forces,” he told The National.
“We're going to need to get all these people out to Sudan as swiftly as possible and we will need to be proactive. There could be a ceasefire but ultimately the collective strength of the West needs to be utilised.”
But with the US appearing to distance itself from committing to an evacuation, there will be little motivation for other less powerful nations to attempt a military intervention.
Port Sudan
Instead, the most viable and least dangerous route is the 800km road journey from the capital to the relative security of Port Sudan, on the Red Sea.
American warships are already stationed off the coast and in a few days, they will be joined by two British Royal Navy vessels, with one steaming to the Red Sea from Bahrain and the other from India.
Saudi Arabia has already used its warships to evacuate diplomats from 13 countries out of Port Sudan.
“If foreign nationals can get to the coast and go to Saudi Arabia, then that’s also doable,” said Thomas Barry, a military contractor who has worked in South Sudan.
“Would I go via any other route, including north to Egypt? No chance. Heading to the coast is the only option but unless you are able to get a safe passage guarantee, then I wouldn't advise it as it is very high risk.”
He echoed the British government line that, for now, it was better to stay indoors and wait for the most intense fighting to pass.
Ben Manzin, an analyst at Sibylline, said it had become apparent that Gulf states had been “creating channels for getting people out” from Khartoum to Port Sudan then across the Red Sea to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
Kabul again?
“It's going to be a question of either staying put until the violence comes down, or trying to get out on an individual basis,” said Col Richard Kemp, who commanded British forces in Afghanistan in 2005.
“Whatever they do is going to be fraught with danger because staying put in what's effectively a war zone with heavy shelling, gunfire, air strikes, looting and rape could soon be very difficult.”
In the 2021 Kabul evacuation following the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, it was easier to get people out because there was agreement on both sides.
That will be trickier in Sudan, Col Kemp argued.
“Without a ceasefire or safe passage, it’s very hard to see how those people can be got out by a military rescue operation,” he said.
“There's every possibility the troops dealing with it could be attacked and that could potentially draw our forces into a gun battle with locals on the ground, which would have pretty disastrous consequences.”
Sending in flights of military transport aircraft also comes with high risk, warned Mr Manzin.
“The RSF have some limited anti-aircraft power, with ZSU-30 twin cannons mounted on the back of a technical but also the suggestion that elements in Libya intend to supply them with Manpad [man-portable] surface-to-air missiles. So the air threat is there.”
But he added that for now, there was no suggestion that the RSF or SAF would want to deliberately attack westerners.
Wagner actions
Another unknown and unpredictable element is the Russian involvement in the conflict. While Moscow wants a stable Sudan to develop a naval facility on the Red Sea, the notorious Wagner Group of mercenaries has been heavily involved.
“Wagner has aligned itself with both the two factions with a foot in both camps,” said Col Kemp.
“At the moment, it’s weapons training and technical support, paid for by the RSF with illicit gold mining that is smuggled out of the country.”
This cash inflow has significantly strengthened the RSF’s forces, with Sibylline suggesting that it can field 100,000 troops with access to arms that could keep it going for several months, even if they are pushed out of Khartoum by the numerically superior SAF.
Bound Two
The National understands that the British military is considering plans for a “bound two” operation, with paratroopers and marines being readied for a more robust return to Sudan using Cyprus as a staging post.
On Monday afternoon, Britain’s Cobra emergency planning committee met to consider its next steps.
Certainly, the fast-paced and intense military contingency planning will be under way, with kit and personnel readied for a hostile intervention.
But the politicians and diplomats will also use their muscle in the hope that a lull in fighting will give them time to save those citizens who want to get out and perhaps bring the factions to a peaceful agreement.
