The outcome of the Conservative Party leadership race for Britain’s next prime minister was hanging on a knife edge on Wednesday after the fourth ballot of MPs.
The fight for second spot is now difficult to determine, with Liz Truss potentially edging ahead of Penny Mordaunt as the favourite.
Whoever wins that race will almost certainly be up against Rishi Sunak but with the latest polling showing that both women are far ahead of beating the former chancellor among the Conservative membership, either could end up as prime minister.
Key to whoever wins that race will be how the 59 MPs who backed Kemi Badenoch decide to vote. There is some expectation that the majority of them will go for the Foreign Secretary Ms Truss, who attracted a significant 15 new backers taking her to 86 votes.
She is now only six votes behind the early favourite Ms Mordaunt, whose vote base increased by 10 to 92.
Mr Sunak landed a marginal three vote increase in his share, achieving 118 backers which would leave him only two short of achieving the magic 120 needed to guarantee a second round spot.
Those supporting Ms Badenoch are thought to be a mixed group of MPs and it is unclear which way their 59 votes will be split between the three remaining candidates.
Ms Mordaunt had been expected to receive the majority of Tom Tugendhat’s 31 votes after he was eliminated on Monday but it did not turn out that way.
The three candidates made their final pitches to MPs before Wednesday's vote, with Mr Sunak promising Tory members that he would keep wind farms away from their homes even as he promised to pursue energy independence by 2045.
Ms Mordaunt made a raft of policy statements including plans for a tougher line on China, digitalisation of the public sector, reforms to the housing market and powers to stop the release of violent criminals.
And Ms Truss put her focus on tax cuts and bringing down the cost of living, in an article for the Daily Telegraph in which she said she was the "only person who can deliver the change... in line with true Conservative principles".
To guarantee a spot in the last two, Ms Mordaunt, a former defence secretary, will need half of Ms Badenoch’s votes.
But there is also the possibility that some MPs may well change their minds at the last minute, making the outcome unpredictable even for Mr Sunak.
“Tomorrow’s vote is what I refer to as ‘moving day’, in which everyone will decide who they don’t want rather than who do they want,” said the former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith, who backs Ms Truss. “Momentum matters in this contest and I’m sorry for Kemi that she is out — this is a really brutal business — but I think momentum is with Liz now.”
With the margins so tight, each vote counts and the unexpected removal of the party whip from Tobias Ellwood for not attending Monday’s no-confidence vote could be significant.
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Kemi Badenoch has been knocked out of the race to become Britain's next prime minister. Getty Images -
Ms Badenoch speaks during a live television debate for the candidates for leadership of the Conservative Party, hosted by Channel 4 in London. AP -
She arrives at television studios in Stratford, east London, before a television debate. PA -
Kemi Badenoch, third left, is pictured in No 11 Downing Street while serving as Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury, in 2021. Getty Images -
Ms Badenoch is a former equalities minister. Photo: HM Treasury -
She had promised 'limited government' and 'a focus on the essentials'. Photo: UK Parliament
Mr Ellwood, who was in Moldova for discussions on the Ukraine war but not on official government business, will not be eligible to vote.
He was an outspoken critic of Mr Johnson’s leadership and removing the whip is considered a final act of revenge.
The outcome for the final pair will be announced at 4pm on Wednesday. The contest is then opened up to the estimated 160,000 Tory membership who will vote by postal ballot with the winner declared on September 5.
Badenoch goes from unknown to real prospect
The rise of Kemi Badenoch and her growing popularity among grass root Conservatives had been a remarkable revelation in the Tory leadership contest.
The 42-year-old came from being virtually unknown to nationwide recognition during the television debates in which her no-nonsense straight talking won praise.
This drew the Conservative heavyweight thinker Michael Gove to act as a campaign chief, realising the prospect of a rising star.
“She has three qualities which are what any new leader or any new prime minister will need — courage, conviction and clarity,” he told a Policy Exchange event on Tuesday.
Ms Badenoch, whose parents are Nigerian, is unrepentantly right wing — hard on immigration, uncompromising on the deportations of illegal asylum seekers to Rwanda and anti-woke.
The MP for Saffron Walden, Essex, who was in a tranche of ministers who resigned over Boris Johnson’s lack of integrity, set out her thinking in a widely read piece in The Times.
“People are exhausted by platitudes and empty rhetoric,” she wrote, adding that “an intellectual grasp of what is required to run the country" is missing.
She also lamented the decline of the West. “Without change the Conservative Party, Britain and the western world will continue to drift" and rivals will "outpace us economically and outmanoeuvre us internationally”, she wrote.
Her rise is also an interesting commentary on the diversity of the Conservative Party, which has traditionally been a white, male-dominated party. It will now either have a female or ethnic minority man as its next leader and prime minister.
UK Conservatives on the leadership campaign trail - in pictures
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Candidates Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss at the Conservative Party leadership election hustings at Wembley Arena, London. This was the final hustings attended by Tory Party members who will vote for the new leader and next prime minister. EPA -
Liz Truss addresses Conservative Party members at Wembley Arena. AP -
Mr Sunak puts forward his case to be leader while speaking at Wembley Arena. Bloomberg -
Mr Sunak visits his family's old business, Bassett Pharmacy in Southampton, while on the campaign trail. Reuters -
Ms Truss speaks to staff at Condimentum Ltd at the Food Enterprise Park in Norwich. Getty Images -
A Rishi Sunak supporter at a hustings event in Norfolk. PA -
Mr Sunak greets people at a leadership hustings in Manchester. Bloomberg -
Ms Truss poses for a selfie with a supporter as she arrives for the event in Manchester. Getty -
Rishi Sunak looks through the sights of an anti-tank missile launcher, supplied to Ukraine, during a visit to the Thales Defence System plant in Belfast, Northern Ireland. AP -
Liz Truss at a Conservative Party leadership campaign event in Belfast. Getty -
Liz Truss meets supporters before a hustings in Perth, Scotland. Getty -
Rishi Sunak speaks during a campaign visit to Cluny Castle in Inverurie, Scotland. Getty -
Police hold back protesters outside Perth Concert Hall, Scotland, where Conservative leadership candidates Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak were speaking. PA -
A mural showing the two leadership contestants appears on a wall in Belfast, Northern Ireland. AP -
Rishi Sunak during a visit to St John's Wood Synagogue, north London. PA -
Liz Truss at the Conservative Party leadership election hustings in Cheltenham. EPA -
Rishi Sunak during a hustings event in Cheltenham. Reuters -
Liz Truss speaks to scientists during a campaign visit to a life sciences laboratory at Alderley Park in Manchester. PA -
Rishi Sunak during a campaign hustings in Darlington, England. Bloomberg -
Liz Truss meets party members before she speaks at the Darlington campaign hustings. Getty -
Rishi Sunak arrives for the Darlington hustings. Getty -
Liz Truss plays pool during a visit to the Onside Future Youth Zone in London. Reuters -
Rishi Sunak looks at a book with Teddy Openshaw, 4, as his father, Henry, looks on after a Conservative leadership campaign event in Ribble Valley, Lancashire, England. Getty -
Liz Truss plays table tennis with former Conservative party leader Iain Duncan Smith during a visit to the Onside Future Youth Zone in London. Reuters -
Liz Truss with supporters at a campaign event in Solihull, England. Reuters -
Rishi Sunak attends a campaign event held by his party in Bexhill, England. Reuters -
A protester is removed as Ms Truss speaks during the Conservative Party leadership hustings in Eastbourne. Bloomberg -
Mr Sunak speaks at an event in Edinburgh. PA -
Ms Truss leaves the hall in Exeter, south-west England, after her speech to a Conservative Party membership hustings. Getty -
Mr Sunak speaks at the University of Exeter in south-west England. AP -
A supporter of Ms Truss at a Conservative Party hustings in Exeter, south-west England. Getty -
Ms Truss at a hustings event at the Pavilion conference centre at Elland Road in Leeds. PA -
Mr Sunak in Salisbury watching a screening of the Uefa Women's Euro 2022 final between England and Germany at Wembley stadium. England won 2-1 in extra time. PA -
Ms Truss before the Uefa Women's Euro 2022 final at Wembley stadium in London. AFP -
Mr Sunak meets Tory members at Fontwell Park Racecourse. Reuters -
Ms Truss at an event in Dereham, Norfolk. AFP -
Mr Sunak in Ropley, near Winchester, Hampshire. PA -
Ms Truss speaks as Conservative Member of Parliament Tom Tugendhat looks on at a Conservative Party leadership campaign event at Biggin Hill Airport. Getty -
Ms Truss on the campaign trail in Woodford Green, on the outskirts of London. Reuters -
Mr Sunak at a Conservative Party hustings event in Leeds. AFP -
Ms Truss speaks at the hustings event in Leeds. AFP -
Sunak and Truss-themed souvenirs at a stand during the Leeds hustings event. Reuters -
Ms Truss, and her mother, Patricia, arrive for the hustings event. Getty -
Ms Truss poses with supporters in Morley, England. Getty -
Mr Sunak delivers a speech during a campaign event in Newmarket. AFP -
Ms Truss and Jake Berry, MP for Rossendale and Darwen, during a visit to a broadband interchange company in Leeds. PA -
Mr Sunak answers questions as he takes part in the hustings in Leeds. AFP -
Ms Truss speaks at an event at a private house with members of the Conservative Party in Woodford Green. PA -
Ms Truss and Mr Sunak pose for a picture before a BBC leadership debate at Victoria Hall in Hanley. Getty -
Ms Truss addresses Mr Sunak during the televised debate. Getty -
Mr Sunak, with daughters Krishna and Anushka, and wife Akshata Murthy, during a visit to Vaculug tyre specialists at Gonerby Hill Foot, Grantham. PA -
Ms Truss speaks to people while campaigning in Marden. Getty -
Ms Truss celebrates after being named, along with Mr Sunak, one of the final two candidates in the race to become the UK's next prime minister. PA -
Mr Sunak outside his campaign office in central London. EPA -
Ms Truss outside Downing Street in London. Reuters -
Rishi Sunak meets Conservative Party members and activists, in Teesport, Redcar. Reuters -
Conservative leadership candidates Mr Sunak, Ms Truss, Kemi Badenoch, presenter Julie Etchingham, Tom Tugendhat and Penny Mordaunt during 'Britain's Next Prime Minister: The ITV Debate' in London. EPA -
Ms Badenoch arrives at Here East studios in Stratford, east London, before a live television debate. PA -
Mr Sunak arrives at a London event to launch his campaign to be the next Conservative Party leader and UK prime minister. Reuters -
Mr Tugendhat appears on the BBC One current affairs programme, 'Sunday Morning'. PA -
Ms Badenoch, Ms Mordaunt, Mr Sunak, Ms Truss and Mr Tugendhat before the live television debate. PA -
Ms Mordaunt arrives for the launch of her Conservative leadership campaign at the Cinnamon Club in Westminster. PA -
Ms Truss speaks at the launch event for her campaign to become the next leader of the Tory Party and Britain's prime minister, in London. EPA -
Chancellor of the Exchequer Nadhim Zahawi, one of the candidates who has been knocked out of the race, giving a speech at the Churchill War Rooms. PA -
Former leadership candidate Jeremy Hunt appearing on the BBC One current affairs programme, 'Sunday Morning'. PA -
Sajid Javid attending the launch of his campaign to be Conservative Party leader and prime minister, at the Cinnamon Club in London. He has since been knocked out of the contest. PA -
Rehman Chishti is interviewed after announcing his bid to become the next prime minister. Mr Chishti is no longer in the race. Getty -
Mr Tugendhat speaking at the launch of his campaign. PA -
Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries and Conservative MP Iain Duncan Smith arrive for the Truss campaign launch event. Getty -
Former leadership candidate Attorney General Suella Braverman at the Churchill War Rooms in central London. PA -
Supporters of Mr Sunak wait for his arrival ahead of the campaign launch. Bloomberg -
Mr Tugendhat makes a speech at the launch of his campaign. PA -
Mr Javid mops his brow while launching his campaign. Getty -
Ms Truss leaves for work after her announcement that she would be running for the leadership of the Conservative Party. Getty
