Boris Johnson's headache dealing with his increasingly rebellious party is going to be substantial.
The question as to how long his newly cobbled-together government can last until the inevitable next leadership challenge remains.
His authority, following the resignation of chancellor Rishi Sunak and health secretary Sajid Javid, is rapidly slipping away.
Downing Street had hoped the domino effect of resignations would subside after 10 people — from parliamentary private secretaries to trade envoys and ministers — quit government on Tuesday night.
However, the terminal atmosphere for the Johnson resignation continued on Wednesday morning when Will Quince, the children’s minister, left government, rapidly followed by another ministerial aide and another junior minister.
Curiously, The National had spotted Mr Quince on the Commons' terrace on Tuesday evening talking in friendly fashion to well-known Tory rebels just 20 minutes before Mr Javid resigned.
Mr Quince was one of several ministers who had been ordered to go on the airwaves to defend Mr Johnson’s position over the Chris Pincher affair, after the deputy chief whip resigned last Thursday after allegedly groping two men.
Mr Quince had originally stated in interviews that he had been given “categorical assurances” that Mr Johnson was unaware of other allegations about Mr Pincher when he appointed him in February.
This was subsequently shown to be false, with Mr Johnson claiming on Tuesday he had “forgotten” being told about past complaints over Mr Pincher for which the prime minister apologised.
In his departure letter, Mr Quince said he had accepted the assurances about Mr Pincher in “good faith” and therefore had “no choice” but to resign.
His act was rapidly duplicated by Laura Trott, a ministerial aide in the Department for Transport.
The new chancellor, the widely respected Nadhim Zahawi, was live on air with the BBC when he was told about the resignations. “I am sorry to see Will Quince go... he was my children and families minister and a great minister,” he said. “All I would say to colleagues is people don't vote for divided teams.”
Earlier in the interview, the chancellor, who is expected to cut taxes if he remains in power long enough, was flummoxed for a few seconds when asked if he would be repeating untruths over the Pincher affair.
It was a painful moment. But more of those will inevitably arrive in the coming hours for Mr Johnson.
First, he has to get through Prime Minister’s Questions at noon on Wednesday and then questioning before the influential Liaison Committee at 3pm.
Mr Johnson’s character is such that he is likely to bludgeon his way through the crisis no matter what happens around him. Even if more Cabinet ministers resign, he is likely to cling onto power until it is taken away from him.
That may well happen now more rapidly than expected via the 1922 Committee of backbench MPs, that oversees the Conservative parliamentary party.
Elections to its executive will take place next Wednesday where it is now all but inevitable that anti-Johnson MPs will take the majority. They will almost certainly change the rules within a few days to hold a second no confidence vote before summer recess on July 21.
In the last vote, 148 MPs voted against him, with 211 for. All it now requires is a further 32 MPs to switch their votes to “not having confidence in the Prime Minister” for Mr Johnson to be out.
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
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Who is Allegra Stratton?
- Previously worked at The Guardian, BBC’s Newsnight programme and ITV News
- Took up a public relations role for Chancellor Rishi Sunak in April 2020
- In October 2020 she was hired to lead No 10’s planned daily televised press briefings
- The idea was later scrapped and she was appointed spokeswoman for Cop26
- Ms Stratton, 41, is married to James Forsyth, the political editor of The Spectator
- She has strong connections to the Conservative establishment
- Mr Sunak served as best man at her 2011 wedding to Mr Forsyth
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
Scoreline
Germany 2
Werner 9', Sane 19'
Netherlands 2
Promes 85', Van Dijk 90'
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
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The specs
Price, base / as tested Dh960,000
Engine 3.9L twin-turbo V8
Transmission Seven-speed dual-clutch automatic
Power 661hp @8,000rpm
Torque 760Nm @ 3,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 11.4L / 100k